Sum-product networks (SPNs) are probabilistic models characterized by exact and fast evaluation of fundamental probabilistic operations. Its superior computational tractability has led to applications in many fields, such as machine learning with time constraints or accuracy requirements and real-time systems. The structural constraints of SPNs supporting fast inference, however, lead to increased learning-time complexity and can be an obstacle to building highly expressive SPNs. This study aimed to develop a Bayesian learning approach that can be efficiently implemented on large-scale SPNs. We derived a new full conditional probability of Gibbs sampling by marginalizing multiple random variables to expeditiously obtain the posterior distribution. The complexity analysis revealed that our sampling algorithm works efficiently even for the largest possible SPN. Furthermore, we proposed a hyperparameter tuning method that balances the diversity of the prior distribution and optimization efficiency in large-scale SPNs. Our method has improved learning-time complexity and demonstrated computational speed tens to more than one hundred times faster and superior predictive performance in numerical experiments on more than 20 datasets.

We propose a scalable variational Bayes method for statistical inference for a single or low-dimensional subset of the coordinates of a high-dimensional parameter in sparse linear regression. Our approach relies on assigning a mean-field approximation to the nuisance coordinates and carefully modelling the conditional distribution of the target given the nuisance. This requires only a preprocessing step and preserves the computational advantages of mean-field variational Bayes, while ensuring accurate and reliable inference for the target parameter, including for uncertainty quantification. We investigate the numerical performance of our algorithm, showing that it performs competitively with existing methods. We further establish accompanying theoretical guarantees for estimation and uncertainty quantification in the form of a Bernstein--von Mises theorem.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often suffer from overconfidence during inference, particularly when adapted to downstream domain-specific tasks with limited data. Previous work addresses this issue by employing approximate Bayesian estimation after the LLMs are trained, enabling them to quantify uncertainty. However, such post-training approaches' performance is severely limited by the parameters learned during training. In this paper, we go beyond post-training Bayesianization and propose Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation by Backpropagation (BLoB), an algorithm that continuously and jointly adjusts both the mean and covariance of LLM parameters throughout the whole fine-tuning process. Our empirical results verify the effectiveness of BLoB in terms of generalization and uncertainty estimation, when evaluated on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data.

Traditional conformance checking tasks assume that event data provide a faithful and complete representation of the actual process executions. This assumption has been recently questioned: more and more often events are not traced explicitly, but are instead indirectly obtained as the result of event recognition pipelines, and thus inherently come with uncertainty. In this work, differently from the typical probabilistic interpretation of uncertainty, we consider the relevant case where uncertainty refers to which activity is actually conducted, under a fuzzy semantics. In this novel setting, we consider the problem of checking whether fuzzy event data conform with declarative temporal rules specified as Declare patterns or, more generally, as formulae of linear temporal logic over finite traces (LTLf). This requires to relax the assumption that at each instant only one activity is executed, and to correspondingly redefine boolean operators of the logic with a fuzzy semantics. Specifically, we provide a threefold contribution. First, we define a fuzzy counterpart of LTLf tailored to our purpose. Second, we cast conformance checking over fuzzy logs as a verification problem in this logic. Third, we provide a proof-of-concept, efficient implementation based on the PyTorch Python library, suited to check conformance of multiple fuzzy traces at once.

Divide-and-conquer MCMC is a strategy for parallelising Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling by running independent samplers on disjoint subsets of a dataset and merging their output. An ongoing challenge in the literature is to efficiently perform this merging without imposing distributional assumptions on the posteriors. We propose using diffusion generative modelling to fit density approximations to the subposterior distributions. This approach outperforms existing methods on challenging merging problems, while its computational cost scales more efficiently to high dimensional problems than existing density estimation approaches.

Producing an artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been an elusive goal in artificial intelligence (AI) research for some time. An AGI would have the capability, like a human, to be exposed to a new problem domain, learn about it and then use reasoning processes to make decisions. While AI techniques have been used across a wide variety of problem domains, an AGI would require an AI that could reason beyond its programming and training. This paper presents a small step towards producing an AGI. It describes a mechanism for an AI to learn about and develop reasoning pathways to make decisions in an a priori unknown domain. It combines a classical AI technique, the expert system, with a its modern adaptation - the gradient descent trained expert system (GDTES) - and utilizes generative artificial intelligence (GAI) to create a network and training data set for this system. These can be created from available sources or may draw upon knowledge incorporated in a GAI's own pre-trained model. The learning process in GDTES is used to optimize the AI's decision-making. While this approach does not meet the standards that many have defined for an AGI, it provides a somewhat similar capability, albeit one which requires a learning process before use.

When a robot autonomously performs a complex task, it frequently must balance competing objectives while maintaining safety. This becomes more difficult in uncertain environments with stochastic outcomes. Enhancing transparency in the robot's behavior and aligning with user preferences are also crucial. This paper introduces a novel framework for multi-objective reinforcement learning that ensures safe task execution, optimizes trade-offs between objectives, and adheres to user preferences. The framework has two main layers: a multi-objective task planner and a high-level selector. The planning layer generates a set of optimal trade-off plans that guarantee satisfaction of a temporal logic task. The selector uses active inference to decide which generated plan best complies with user preferences and aids learning. Operating iteratively, the framework updates a parameterized learning model based on collected data. Case studies and benchmarks on both manipulation and mobile robots show that our framework outperforms other methods and (i) learns multiple optimal trade-offs, (ii) adheres to a user preference, and (iii) allows the user to adjust the balance between (i) and (ii).

Membership inference attacks aim to infer whether an individual record was used to train a model, serving as a key tool for disclosure auditing. While such evaluations are useful to demonstrate risk, they are computationally expensive and often make strong assumptions about potential adversaries' access to models and training environments, and thus do not provide very tight bounds on leakage from potential attacks. We show how prior claims around black-box access being sufficient for optimal membership inference do not hold for most useful settings such as stochastic gradient descent, and that optimal membership inference indeed requires white-box access. We validate our findings with a new white-box inference attack IHA (Inverse Hessian Attack) that explicitly uses model parameters by taking advantage of computing inverse-Hessian vector products. Our results show that both audits and adversaries may be able to benefit from access to model parameters, and we advocate for further research into white-box methods for membership privacy auditing.

This perspective piece calls for the study of the new field of Intersymbolic AI, by which we mean the combination of symbolic AI, whose building blocks have inherent significance/meaning, with subsymbolic AI, whose entirety creates significance/effect despite the fact that individual building blocks escape meaning. Canonical kinds of symbolic AI are logic, games and planning. Canonical kinds of subsymbolic AI are (un)supervised machine and reinforcement learning. Intersymbolic AI interlinks the worlds of symbolic AI with its compositional symbolic significance and meaning and of subsymbolic AI with its summative significance or effect to enable culminations of insights from both worlds by going between and across symbolic AI insights with subsymbolic AI techniques that are being helped by symbolic AI principles. For example, Intersymbolic AI may start with symbolic AI to understand a dynamic system, continue with subsymbolic AI to learn its control, and end with symbolic AI to safely use the outcome of the learned subsymbolic AI controller in the dynamic system. Intersymbolic AI combines both symbolic and subsymbolic AI to increase the effectiveness of AI compared to either kind of AI alone, in much the same way that the combination of both conscious and subconscious thought increases the effectiveness of human thought compared to either kind of thought alone. Some successful contributions to the Intersymbolic AI paradigm are surveyed here but many more are considered possible by advancing Intersymbolic AI.

Robots navigating in crowded areas should negotiate free space with humans rather than fully controlling collision avoidance, as this can lead to freezing behavior. Game theory provides a framework for the robot to reason about potential cooperation from humans for collision avoidance during path planning. In particular, the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium captures the negotiation behavior under uncertainty, making it well suited for crowd navigation. However, computing the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium is often prohibitively expensive for real-time decision-making. In this paper, we propose an iterative Bayesian update scheme over probability distributions of trajectories. The algorithm simultaneously generates a stochastic plan for the robot and probabilistic predictions of other pedestrians' paths. We prove that the proposed algorithm is equivalent to solving a mixed strategy game for crowd navigation, and the algorithm guarantees the recovery of the global Nash equilibrium of the game. We name our algorithm Bayes' Rule Nash Equilibrium (BRNE) and develop a real-time model prediction crowd navigation framework. Since BRNE is not solving a general-purpose mixed strategy Nash equilibrium but a tailored formula specifically for crowd navigation, it can compute the solution in real-time on a low-power embedded computer. We evaluate BRNE in both simulated environments and real-world pedestrian datasets. BRNE consistently outperforms non-learning and learning-based methods regarding safety and navigation efficiency. It also reaches human-level crowd navigation performance in the pedestrian dataset benchmark. Lastly, we demonstrate the practicality of our algorithm with real humans on an untethered quadruped robot with fully onboard perception and computation.