Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs, which learn a distribution over weights, are currently the state-of-the-art for estimating predictive uncertainty; however these require significant modifications to the training procedure and are computationally expensive compared to standard (non-Bayesian) NNs. We propose an alternative to Bayesian NNs that is simple to implement, readily parallelizable, requires very little hyperparameter tuning, and yields high quality predictive uncertainty estimates. Through a series of experiments on classification and regression benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates which are as good or better than approximate Bayesian NNs. To assess robustness to dataset shift, we evaluate the predictive uncertainty on test examples from known and unknown distributions, and show that our method is able to express higher uncertainty on out-of-distribution examples. We demonstrate the scalability of our method by evaluating predictive uncertainty estimates on ImageNet.

Here we propose to model this causal interaction using integro-differential equations and causal kernels that allow for a rich analysis of effective connectivity.

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) learn representations of data by jointly training a probabilistic encoder and decoder network.

The last decade in deep learning has brought on increasingly capable systems that are deployed on a wide variety of applications. In natural language processing, the field has been transformed by a number of breakthroughs including large language models, which are used in increasingly many user-facing applications. In order to reap the benefits of this technology and reduce potential harms, it is important to quantify the reliability of model predictions and the uncertainties that shroud their development. This thesis studies how uncertainty in natural language processing can be characterized from a linguistic, statistical and neural perspective, and how it can be reduced and quantified through the design of the experimental pipeline. We further explore uncertainty quantification in modeling by theoretically and empirically investigating the effect of inductive model biases in text classification tasks. The corresponding experiments include data for three different languages (Danish, English and Finnish) and tasks as well as a large set of different uncertainty quantification approaches. Additionally, we propose a method for calibrated sampling in natural language generation based on non-exchangeable conformal prediction, which provides tighter token sets with better coverage of the actual continuation. Lastly, we develop an approach to quantify confidence in large black-box language models using auxiliary predictors, where the confidence is predicted from the input to and generated output text of the target model alone.

Recently, 3D Gaussian Splatting has emerged as a promising approach for modeling 3D scenes using mixtures of Gaussians. The predominant optimization method for these models relies on backpropagating gradients through a differentiable rendering pipeline, which struggles with catastrophic forgetting when dealing with continuous streams of data. To address this limitation, we propose Variational Bayes Gaussian Splatting (VBGS), a novel approach that frames training a Gaussian splat as variational inference over model parameters. By leveraging the conjugacy properties of multivariate Gaussians, we derive a closed-form variational update rule, allowing efficient updates from partial, sequential observations without the need for replay buffers. Our experiments show that VBGS not only matches state-of-the-art performance on static datasets, but also enables continual learning from sequentially streamed 2D and 3D data, drastically improving performance in this setting.

Representation learning on text-attributed graphs (TAGs) has attracted significant interest due to its wide-ranging real-world applications, particularly through Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Traditional GNN methods focus on encoding the structural information of graphs, often using shallow text embeddings for node or edge attributes. This limits the model to understand the rich semantic information in the data and its reasoning ability for complex downstream tasks, while also lacking interpretability. With the rise of large language models (LLMs), an increasing number of studies are combining them with GNNs for graph representation learning and downstream tasks. While these approaches effectively leverage the rich semantic information in TAGs datasets, their main drawback is that they are only partially interpretable, which limits their application in critical fields. In this paper, we propose a verbalized graph representation learning (VGRL) method which is fully interpretable. In contrast to traditional graph machine learning models, which are usually optimized within a continuous parameter space, VGRL constrains this parameter space to be text description which ensures complete interpretability throughout the entire process, making it easier for users to understand and trust the decisions of the model. We conduct several studies to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of VGRL and we believe these method can serve as a stepping stone in graph representation learning.

The AlphaZero/MuZero (A/MZ) family of algorithms has achieved remarkable success across various challenging domains by integrating Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with learned models. Learned models introduce epistemic uncertainty, which is caused by learning from limited data and is useful for exploration in sparse reward environments. MCTS does not account for the propagation of this uncertainty however. To address this, we introduce Epistemic MCTS (EMCTS): a theoretically motivated approach to account for the epistemic uncertainty in search and harness the search for deep exploration. In the challenging sparse-reward task of writing code in the Assembly language subleq, AZ paired with our method achieves significantly higher sample efficiency over baseline AZ. Search with EMCTS solves variations of the commonly used hard-exploration benchmark Deep Sea - which baseline A/MZ are practically unable to solve - much faster than an otherwise equivalent method that does not use search for uncertainty estimation, demonstrating significant benefits from search for epistemic uncertainty estimation.

Posterior sampling in contextual bandits with a Gaussian prior can be implemented exactly or approximately using the Laplace approximation. The Gaussian prior is computationally efficient but it cannot describe complex distributions. In this work, we propose approximate posterior sampling algorithms for contextual bandits with a diffusion model prior. The key idea is to sample from a chain of approximate conditional posteriors, one for each stage of the reverse process, which are estimated in a closed form using the Laplace approximation. Our approximations are motivated by posterior sampling with a Gaussian prior, and inherit its simplicity and efficiency. They are asymptotically consistent and perform well empirically on a variety of contextual bandit problems.

We study the fundamental problem of sequential probability assignment, also known as online learning with logarithmic loss, with respect to an arbitrary, possibly nonparametric hypothesis class. Our goal is to obtain a complexity measure for the hypothesis class that characterizes the minimax regret and to determine a general, minimax optimal algorithm. Notably, the sequential $\ell_{\infty}$ entropy, extensively studied in the literature (Rakhlin and Sridharan, 2015, Bilodeau et al., 2020, Wu et al., 2023), was shown to not characterize minimax risk in general. Inspired by the seminal work of Shtarkov (1987) and Rakhlin, Sridharan, and Tewari (2010), we introduce a novel complexity measure, the \emph{contextual Shtarkov sum}, corresponding to the Shtarkov sum after projection onto a multiary context tree, and show that the worst case log contextual Shtarkov sum equals the minimax regret. Using the contextual Shtarkov sum, we derive the minimax optimal strategy, dubbed \emph{contextual Normalized Maximum Likelihood} (cNML). Our results hold for sequential experts, beyond binary labels, which are settings rarely considered in prior work. To illustrate the utility of this characterization, we provide a short proof of a new regret upper bound in terms of sequential $\ell_{\infty}$ entropy, unifying and sharpening state-of-the-art bounds by Bilodeau et al. (2020) and Wu et al. (2023).

In this work we study how diffusion-based generative models produce high-dimensional data, such as an image, by implicitly relying on a manifestation of a low-dimensional set of latent abstractions, that guide the generative process. We present a novel theoretical framework that extends NLF, and that offers a unique perspective on SDE-based generative models. The development of our theory relies on a novel formulation of the joint (state and measurement) dynamics, and an information-theoretic measure of the influence of the system state on the measurement process. According to our theory, diffusion models can be cast as a system of SDE, describing a non-linear filter in which the evolution of unobservable latent abstractions steers the dynamics of an observable measurement process (corresponding to the generative pathways). In addition, we present an empirical study to validate our theory and previous empirical results on the emergence of latent abstractions at different stages of the generative process.