Simulation-based inference (SBI) is the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. A significant challenge in this context is the large computational cost of simulating data from complex models, and the fact that this cost often depends on parameter values. We therefore propose \textit{cost-aware SBI methods} which can significantly reduce the cost of existing sampling-based SBI methods, such as neural SBI and approximate Bayesian computation. This is achieved through a combination of rejection and self-normalised importance sampling, which significantly reduces the number of expensive simulations needed. Our approach is studied extensively on models from epidemiology to telecommunications engineering, where we obtain significant reductions in the overall cost of inference.

The heterogeneity of neurological and mental health disorders has been a key confound to disease understanding, treatment development and outcome prediction, as patient populations are thought to include multiple disease pathways that selectively respond to treatment (Kapur et al., 2012). These challenges are reflected in poor treatment outcomes; for instance, in depression, approximately only 40% of patients remit after first-line antidepressant treatment or psychotherapy (Amick et al., 2015; Cuijpers et al., 2014; Fava and Davidson, 1996; Trivedi et al., 2006). Diagnostic categories in psychiatry have historically been defined based on signs and symptoms, prioritising diagnostic agreement between clinicians, rather than underlying biological mechanisms (Freedman et al., 2013; Robins and Guze, 1970). Resultingly, the usefulness of supervised machine learning methods as diagnostic tools for mental health disorders (i.e., classifying patients vs. healthy controls) is questionable, as they may simply inherit the flaws of current diagnostic categories. Additional challenges in neurological and mental health disorders are comorbidity (i.e., individuals with one disorder often develop another disorder during their lifespan) and that different disorders can share similar symptoms (Kessler et al., 2005). To address the limitations of current diagnostic categories in psychiatry, the National Institute of Mental Health launched the Research Domain Criteria framework (RDoC) in 2009 (https://www.nimh.nih.gov/research/ 2 research-funded-by-nimh/rdoc) as an attempt to move beyond diagnostic categories and ground psychiatry within neurobiological constructs that combine multiple levels of measures or sources of information (Insel et al., 2010). Multivariate methods, such as Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) and related methods, that do not rely on the diagnostic categories, have been widely used to uncover latent disease dimensions capturing associations between brain imaging and non-imaging data (e.g., self-report questionnaires, cognitive tests and genetics). The identified latent dimensions provide information on how a set of non-imaging features (e.g.

We consider the problem of estimating a structured multivariate density, subject to Markov conditions implied by an undirected graph. In the worst case, without Markovian assumptions, this problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Our main result shows how the curse of dimensionality can be avoided or greatly alleviated under the Markov property, and applies to arbitrary graphs. While existing results along these lines focus on sparsity or manifold assumptions, we introduce a new graphical quantity called "graph resilience" and show how it controls the sample complexity. Surprisingly, although one might expect the sample complexity of this problem to scale with local graph parameters such as the degree, this turns out not to be the case. Through explicit examples, we compute uniform deviation bounds and illustrate how the curse of dimensionality in density estimation can thus be circumvented. Notable examples where the rate improves substantially include sequential, hierarchical, and spatial data.

We study the theoretical limits of the $\ell_0$ (quasi) norm based optimization algorithms when employed for solving classical compressed sensing or sparse regression problems. Considering standard contexts with deterministic signals and statistical systems, we utilize \emph{Fully lifted random duality theory} (Fl RDT) and develop a generic analytical program for studying performance of the \emph{maximum-likelihood} (ML) decoding. The key ML performance parameter, the residual \emph{root mean square error} ($\textbf{RMSE}$), is uncovered to exhibit the so-called \emph{phase-transition} (PT) phenomenon. The associated aPT curve, which separates the regions of systems dimensions where \emph{an} $\ell_0$ based algorithm succeeds or fails in achieving small (comparable to the noise) ML optimal $\textbf{RMSE}$ is precisely determined as well. In parallel, we uncover the existence of another dPT curve which does the same separation but for practically feasible \emph{descending} $\ell_0$ ($d\ell_0$) algorithms. Concrete implementation and practical relevance of the Fl RDT typically rely on the ability to conduct a sizeable set of the underlying numerical evaluations which reveal that for the ML decoding the Fl RDT converges astonishingly fast with corrections in the estimated quantities not exceeding $\sim 0.1\%$ already on the third level of lifting. Analytical results are supplemented by a sizeable set of numerical experiments where we implement a simple variant of $d\ell_0$ and demonstrate that its practical performance very accurately matches the theoretical predictions. Completely surprisingly, a remarkably precise agreement between the simulations and the theory is observed for fairly small dimensions of the order of 100.

Virtually any model we use in machine learning to make predictions does not perfectly represent reality. So, most of the learning happens under model misspecification. In this work, we present a novel analysis of the generalization performance of Bayesian model averaging under model misspecification and i.i.d. This analysis shows, in simple and intuitive terms, that Bayesian model averaging provides suboptimal generalization performance when the model is misspecified. In consequence, we provide strong theoretical arguments showing that Bayesian methods are not optimal for learning predictive models, unless the model class is perfectly specified.

We study minimax convergence rates of nonparametric density estimation under the Huber contamination model, in which a contaminated'' proportion of the data comes from an unknown outlier distribution. We provide the first results for this problem under a large family of losses, called Besov integral probability metrics (IPMs), that include L p, Wasserstein, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramer-von Mises, and other commonly used metrics. Under a range of smoothness assumptions on the population and outlier distributions, we show that a re-scaled thresholding wavelet estimator converges at the minimax optimal rate under a wide variety of losses and also exhibits optimal dependence on the contamination proportion. We also provide a purely data-dependent extension of the estimator that adapts to both an unknown contamination proportion and the unknown smoothness of the true density. Finally, based on connections shown recently between density estimation under IPM losses and generative adversarial networks (GANs), we show that certain GAN architectures are robustly minimax optimal.

Recent studies in reinforcement learning (RL) have made significant progress by leveraging function approximation to alleviate the sample complexity hurdle for better performance. Despite the success, existing provably efficient algorithms typically rely on the accessibility of immediate feedback upon taking actions. The failure to account for the impact of delay in observations can significantly degrade the performance of real-world systems due to the regret blow-up. In this work, we tackle the challenge of delayed feedback in RL with linear function approximation by employing posterior sampling, which has been shown to empirically outperform the popular UCB algorithms in a wide range of regimes. We first introduce \textit{Delayed-PSVI}, an optimistic value-based algorithm that effectively explores the value function space via noise perturbation with posterior sampling.

The log-likelihood of a generative model often involves both positive and negative terms. As a result, maximum likelihood estimation is expensive. We show how to instead apply a version of noise-contrastive estimation---a general parameter estimation method with a less expensive stochastic objective. Our specific instantiation of this general idea works out in an interestingly non-trivial way and has provable guarantees for its optimality, consistency and efficiency. On several synthetic and real-world datasets, our method shows benefits: for the model to achieve the same level of log-likelihood on held-out data, our method needs considerably fewer function evaluations and less wall-clock time.

Conventional imitation learning assumes access to the actions of demonstrators, but these motor signals are often non-observable in naturalistic settings. To address these challenges, we explore deep generative modeling of state-only sequences with non-Markov Decision Process (nMDP), where the policy is an energy-based prior in the latent space of the state transition generator. We develop maximum likelihood estimation to achieve model-based imitation, which involves short-run MCMC sampling from the prior and importance sampling for the posterior. The learned model enables \textit{decision-making as inference}: model-free policy execution is equivalent to prior sampling, model-based planning is posterior sampling initialized from the policy. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in a prototypical path planning task with non-Markovian constraints and show that the learned model exhibits strong performances in challenging domains from the MuJoCo suite.

We developed a Nonlinear Level-set Learning (NLL) method for dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional function approximation with small data. This work is motivated by a variety of design tasks in real-world engineering applications, where practitioners would replace their computationally intensive physical models (e.g., high-resolution fluid simulators) with fast-to-evaluate predictive machine learning models, so as to accelerate the engineering design processes. There are two major challenges in constructing such predictive models: (a) high-dimensional inputs (e.g., many independent design parameters) and (b) small training data, generated by running extremely time-consuming simulations. Thus, reducing the input dimension is critical to alleviate the over-fitting issue caused by data insufficiency. Existing methods, including sliced inverse regression and active subspace approaches, reduce the input dimension by learning a linear coordinate transformation; our main contribution is to extend the transformation approach to a nonlinear regime. Specifically, we exploit reversible networks (RevNets) to learn nonlinear level sets of a high-dimensional function and parameterize its level sets in low-dimensional spaces.