Given an intractable target density $p$, variational inference (VI) attempts to find the best approximation $q$ from a tractable family $Q$. This is typically done by minimizing the exclusive Kullback-Leibler divergence, $\text{KL}(q||p)$. In practice, $Q$ is not rich enough to contain $p$, and the approximation is misspecified even when it is a unique global minimizer of $\text{KL}(q||p)$. In this paper, we analyze the robustness of VI to these misspecifications when $p$ exhibits certain symmetries and $Q$ is a location-scale family that shares these symmetries. We prove strong guarantees for VI not only under mild regularity conditions but also in the face of severe misspecifications. Namely, we show that (i) VI recovers the mean of $p$ when $p$ exhibits an \textit{even} symmetry, and (ii) it recovers the correlation matrix of $p$ when in addition~$p$ exhibits an \textit{elliptical} symmetry. These guarantees hold for the mean even when $q$ is factorized and $p$ is not, and for the correlation matrix even when~$q$ and~$p$ behave differently in their tails. We analyze various regimes of Bayesian inference where these symmetries are useful idealizations, and we also investigate experimentally how VI behaves in their absence.

The aim of the notes is to demonstrate the potential for ideas in machine learning to impact on the fields of inverse problems and data assimilation. The perspective is one that is primarily aimed at researchers from inverse problems and/or data assimilation who wish to see a mathematical presentation of machine learning as it pertains to their fields. As a by-product of the presentation we present a succinct mathematical treatment of various topics in machine learning. The material on machine learning, along with some other related topics, is summarized in Part III, Appendix. Part I of the notes is concerned with inverse problems, employing material from Part III; Part II of the notes is concerned with data assimilation, employing material from Parts I and III.

We propose an active inference agent to identify and control a mechanical system with multiple bodies connected by joints. This agent is constructed from multiple scalar autoregressive model-based agents, coupled together by virtue of sharing memories. Each subagent infers parameters through Bayesian filtering and controls by minimizing expected free energy over a finite time horizon. We demonstrate that a coupled agent of this kind is able to learn the dynamics of a double mass-spring-damper system, and drive it to a desired position through a balance of explorative and exploitative actions. It outperforms the uncoupled subagents in terms of surprise and goal alignment.

The logit transform is arguably the most widely-employed link function beyond linear settings. This transformation routinely appears in regression models for binary data and provides, either explicitly or implicitly, a core building-block within state-of-the-art methodologies for both classification and regression. Its widespread use, combined with the lack of analytical solutions for the optimization of general losses involving the logit transform, still motivates active research in computational statistics. Among the directions explored, a central one has focused on the design of tangent lower bounds for logistic log-likelihoods that can be tractably optimized, while providing a tight approximation of these log-likelihoods. Although progress along these lines has led to the development of effective minorize-maximize (MM) algorithms for point estimation and coordinate ascent variational inference schemes for approximate Bayesian inference under several logit models, the overarching focus in the literature has been on tangent quadratic minorizers. In fact, it is still unclear whether tangent lower bounds sharper than quadratic ones can be derived without undermining the tractability of the resulting minorizer. This article addresses such a challenging question through the design and study of a novel piece-wise quadratic lower bound that uniformly improves any tangent quadratic minorizer, including the sharpest ones, while admitting a direct interpretation in terms of the classical generalized lasso problem. As illustrated in a ridge logistic regression, this unique connection facilitates more effective implementations than those provided by available piece-wise bounds, while improving the convergence speed of quadratic ones.

Motivated by real-world situations found in high energy particle physics, we consider a generalisation of the likelihood-ratio estimation task to a quasiprobabilistic setting where probability densities can be negative. By extension, this framing also applies to importance sampling in a setting where the importance weights can be negative. The presence of negative densities and negative weights, pose an array of challenges to traditional neural likelihood ratio estimation methods. We address these challenges by introducing a novel loss function. In addition, we introduce a new model architecture based on the decomposition of a likelihood ratio using signed mixture models, providing a second strategy for overcoming these challenges. Finally, we demonstrate our approach on a pedagogical example and a real-world example from particle physics.

The vector quantization is a widely used method to map continuous representation to discrete space and has important application in tokenization for generative mode, bottlenecking information and many other tasks in machine learning. Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE) is a type of variational autoencoder using discrete embedding as latent. We generalize the technique further, enriching the probabilistic framework with a Gaussian mixture as the underlying generative model. This framework leverages a codebook of latent means and adaptive variances to capture complex data distributions. This principled framework avoids various heuristics and strong assumptions that are needed with the VQ-VAE to address training instability and to improve codebook utilization. This approach integrates the benefits of both discrete and continuous representations within a variational Bayesian framework. Furthermore, by introducing the \textit{Aggregated Categorical Posterior Evidence Lower Bound} (ALBO), we offer a principled alternative optimization objective that aligns variational distributions with the generative model. Our experiments demonstrate that GM-VQ improves codebook utilization and reduces information loss without relying on handcrafted heuristics.

In this work, we have developed a variational Bayesian inference theory of elasticity, which is accomplished by using a mixed Variational Bayesian inference Finite Element Method (VBI-FEM) that can be used to solve the inverse deformation problems of continua. In the proposed variational Bayesian inference theory of continuum mechanics, the elastic strain energy is used as a prior in a Bayesian inference network, which can intelligently recover the detailed continuum deformation mappings with only given the information on the deformed and undeformed continuum body shapes without knowing the interior deformation and the precise actual boundary conditions, both traction as well as displacement boundary conditions, and the actual material constitutive relation. Moreover, we have implemented the related finite element formulation in a computational probabilistic mechanics framework. To numerically solve mixed variational problem, we developed an operator splitting or staggered algorithm that consists of the finite element (FE) step and the Bayesian learning (BL) step as an analogue of the well-known the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. By solving the mixed probabilistic Galerkin variational problem, we demonstrated that the proposed method is able to inversely predict continuum deformation mappings with strong discontinuity or fracture without knowing the external load conditions. The proposed method provides a robust machine intelligent solution for the long-sought-after inverse problem solution, which has been a major challenge in structure failure forensic pattern analysis in past several decades. The proposed method may become a promising artificial intelligence-based inverse method for solving general partial differential equations.

Mosques are worship places of Allah and must be preserved clean, immaculate, provide all the comforts of the worshippers in them. The prophet's mosque in Medina/ Saudi Arabia is one of the most important mosques for Muslims. It occupies second place after the sacred mosque in Mecca/ Saudi Arabia, which is in constant overcrowding by all Muslims to visit the prophet Mohammad's tomb. This paper aims to propose a smart dome model to preserve the fresh air and allow the sunlight to enter the mosque using artificial intelligence techniques. The proposed model controls domes movements based on the weather conditions and the overcrowding rates in the mosque. The data have been collected from two different resources, the first one from the database of Saudi Arabia weather's history, and the other from Shanghai Technology Database. Congested Scene Recognition Network (CSRNet) and Fuzzy techniques have applied using Python programming language to control the domes to be opened and closed for a specific time to renew the air inside the mosque. Also, this model consists of several parts that are connected for controlling the mechanism of opening/closing domes according to weather data and the situation of crowding in the mosque. Finally, the main goal of this paper has been achieved, and the proposed model has worked efficiently and specifies the exact duration time to keep the domes open automatically for a few minutes for each hour head.

Within one decade, Deep Learning overtook the dominating solution methods of countless problems of artificial intelligence. ``Deep'' refers to the deep architectures with operations in manifolds of which there are no immediate observations. For these deep architectures some kind of structure is pre-defined -- but what is this structure? With a formal definition for structures of neural networks, neural architecture search problems and solution methods can be formulated under a common framework. Both practical and theoretical questions arise from closing the gap between applied neural architecture search and learning theory. Does structure make a difference or can it be chosen arbitrarily? This work is concerned with deep structures of artificial neural networks and examines automatic construction methods under empirical principles to shed light on to the so called ``black-box models''. Our contributions include a formulation of graph-induced neural networks that is used to pose optimisation problems for neural architecture. We analyse structural properties for different neural network objectives such as correctness, robustness or energy consumption and discuss how structure affects them. Selected automation methods for neural architecture optimisation problems are discussed and empirically analysed. With the insights gained from formalising graph-induced neural networks, analysing structural properties and comparing the applicability of neural architecture search methods qualitatively and quantitatively we advance these methods in two ways. First, new predictive models are presented for replacing computationally expensive evaluation schemes, and second, new generative models for informed sampling during neural architecture search are analysed and discussed.

Equipping graph neural networks with a convolution operation defined in terms of a cellular sheaf offers advantages for learning expressive representations of heterophilic graph data. The most flexible approach to constructing the sheaf is to learn it as part of the network as a function of the node features. However, this leaves the network potentially overly sensitive to the learned sheaf. As a counter-measure, we propose a variational approach to learning cellular sheaves within sheaf neural networks, yielding an architecture we refer to as a Bayesian sheaf neural network. As part of this work, we define a novel family of reparameterizable probability distributions on the rotation group $SO(n)$ using the Cayley transform. We evaluate the Bayesian sheaf neural network on several graph datasets, and show that our Bayesian sheaf models outperform deterministic sheaf models when training data is limited, and are less sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters.