Uncertainty
Annealed Stein Variational Gradient Descent for Improved Uncertainty Estimation in Full-Waveform Inversion
Corrales, Miguel, Berti, Sean, Denel, Bertrand, Williamson, Paul, Aleardi, Mattia, Ravasi, Matteo
In recent years, Full-Waveform Inversion (FWI) has been extensively used to derive high-resolution subsurface velocity models from seismic data. However, due to the nonlinearity and ill-posed nature of the problem, FWI requires a good starting model to avoid producing non-physical solutions. Moreover, conventional optimization methods fail to quantify the uncertainty associated with the recovered solution, which is critical for decision-making processes. Bayesian inference offers an alternative approach as it directly or indirectly evaluates the posterior probability density function. For example, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods generate multiple sample chains to characterize the solution's uncertainty. Despite their ability to theoretically handle any form of distribution, MCMC methods require many sampling steps; this limits their usage in high-dimensional problems with computationally intensive forward modeling, as is the FWI case. Variational Inference (VI), on the other hand, provides an approximate solution to the posterior distribution in the form of a parametric or non-parametric proposal distribution. Among the various algorithms used in VI, Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) is recognized for its ability to iteratively refine a set of samples to approximate the target distribution. However, mode and variance-collapse issues affect SVGD in high-dimensional inverse problems. This study aims to improve the performance of SVGD within the context of FWI by utilizing, for the first time, an annealed variant of SVGD and combining it with a multi-scale strategy. Additionally, we demonstrate that Principal Component Analysis (PCA) can be used to evaluate the performance of the optimization process. Clustering techniques are also employed to provide more rigorous and meaningful statistical analysis of the particles in the presence of multi-modal distributions.
Stochastic Flow Matching for Resolving Small-Scale Physics
Fotiadis, Stathi, Brenowitz, Noah, Geffner, Tomas, Cohen, Yair, Pritchard, Michael, Vahdat, Arash, Mardani, Morteza
Conditioning diffusion and flow models have proven effective for super-resolving small-scale details in natural images. However, in physical sciences such as weather, super-resolving small-scale details poses significant challenges due to: (i) misalignment between input and output distributions (i.e., solutions to distinct partial differential equations (PDEs) follow different trajectories), (ii) multi-scale dynamics, deterministic dynamics at large scales vs. stochastic at small scales, and (iii) limited data, increasing the risk of overfitting. To address these challenges, we propose encoding the inputs to a latent base distribution that is closer to the target distribution, followed by flow matching to generate small-scale physics. The encoder captures the deterministic components, while flow matching adds stochastic small-scale details. To account for uncertainty in the deterministic part, we inject noise into the encoder's output using an adaptive noise scaling mechanism, which is dynamically adjusted based on maximum-likelihood estimates of the encoder's predictions. We conduct extensive experiments on both the realworld CWA weather dataset and the PDE-based Kolmogorov dataset, with the CWA task involving super-resolving the weather variables for the region of Taiwan from 25 km to 2 km scales. Our results show that the proposed stochastic flow matching (SFM) framework significantly outperforms existing methods such as conditional diffusion and flows. Resolving small-scale physics is crucial in many scientific applications (Wilby et al., 1998; Rampal et al., 2022; 2024). For instance, in the atmospheric sciences, accurately capturing small-scale dynamics is essential for local planning and disaster mitigation. The success of conditional diffusion models in super-resolving natural images and videos (Song et al., 2021; Batzolis et al., 2021; Hoogeboom et al., 2023) has recently been extended to super-resolving small-scale physics (Aich et al., 2024; Ling et al., 2024). However, this task faces significant challenges: (C1) Input and target data are often spatially misaligned due to differing PDE solutions operating at various resolutions, leading to divergent trajectories. Additionally, the input and target variables (channels) often represent different physical quantities, causing further misalignment. Few efforts have been made to directly address these challenges in generative learning. Prior work typically relies on residual learning approaches (Mardani et al., 2023; Zhao et al., 2021).
A Self-Constructing Multi-Expert Fuzzy System for High-dimensional Data Classification
Ren, Yingtao, Chang, Yu-Cheng, Do, Thomas, Cao, Zehong, Lin, Chin-Teng
Fuzzy Neural Networks (FNNs) are effective machine learning models for classification tasks, commonly based on the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy system. However, when faced with high-dimensional data, especially with noise, FNNs encounter challenges such as vanishing gradients, excessive fuzzy rules, and limited access to prior knowledge. To address these challenges, we propose a novel fuzzy system, the Self-Constructing Multi-Expert Fuzzy System (SOME-FS). It combines two learning strategies: mixed structure learning and multi-expert advanced learning. The former enables each base classifier to effectively determine its structure without requiring prior knowledge, while the latter tackles the issue of vanishing gradients by enabling each rule to focus on its local region, thereby enhancing the robustness of the fuzzy classifiers. The overall ensemble architecture enhances the stability and prediction performance of the fuzzy system. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed SOME-FS is effective in high-dimensional tabular data, especially in dealing with uncertainty. Moreover, our stable rule mining process can identify concise and core rules learned by the SOME-FS.
Computational Approaches to Arabic-English Code-Switching
Natural Language Processing (NLP) is a vital computational method for addressing language processing, analysis, and generation. NLP tasks form the core of many daily applications, from automatic text correction to speech recognition. While significant research has focused on NLP tasks for the English language, less attention has been given to Modern Standard Arabic and Dialectal Arabic. Globalization has also contributed to the rise of Code-Switching (CS), where speakers mix languages within conversations and even within individual words (intra-word CS). This is especially common in Arab countries, where people often switch between dialects or between dialects and a foreign language they master. CS between Arabic and English is frequent in Egypt, especially on social media. Consequently, a significant amount of code-switched content can be found online. Such code-switched data needs to be investigated and analyzed for several NLP tasks to tackle the challenges of this multilingual phenomenon and Arabic language challenges. No work has been done before for several integral NLP tasks on Arabic-English CS data. In this work, we focus on the Named Entity Recognition (NER) task and other tasks that help propose a solution for the NER task on CS data, e.g., Language Identification. This work addresses this gap by proposing and applying state-of-the-art techniques for Modern Standard Arabic and Arabic-English NER. We have created the first annotated CS Arabic-English corpus for the NER task. Also, we apply two enhancement techniques to improve the NER tagger on CS data using CS contextual embeddings and data augmentation techniques. All methods showed improvements in the performance of the NER taggers on CS data. Finally, we propose several intra-word language identification approaches to determine the language type of a mixed text and identify whether it is a named entity or not.
Transferable Belief Model on Quantum Circuits
Zhou, Qianli, Luo, Hao, Pan, Lipeng, Deng, Yong, Bosse, Eloi
The transferable belief model, as a semantic interpretation of Dempster-Shafer theory, enables agents to perform reasoning and decision making in imprecise and incomplete environments. The model offers distinct semantics for handling unreliable testimonies, allowing for a more reasonable and general process of belief transfer compared to the Bayesian approach. However, because both the belief masses and the structure of focal sets must be considered when updating belief functions-leading to extra computational complexity during reasoning-the transferable belief model has gradually lost favor among researchers in recent developments. In this paper, we implement the transferable belief model on quantum circuits and demonstrate that belief functions offer a more concise and effective alternative to Bayesian approaches within the quantum computing framework. Furthermore, leveraging the unique characteristics of quantum computing, we propose several novel belief transfer approaches. More broadly, this paper introduces a new perspective on basic information representation for quantum AI models, suggesting that belief functions are more suitable than Bayesian approach for handling uncertainty on quantum circuits.
Improved Convergence Rate for Diffusion Probabilistic Models
Score-based diffusion models have achieved remarkable empirical performance in the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence for their ability to generate high-quality new data instances from complex distributions. Improving our understanding of diffusion models, including mainly convergence analysis for such models, has attracted a lot of interests. Despite a lot of theoretical attempts, there still exists significant gap between theory and practice. Towards to close this gap, we establish an iteration complexity at the order of $d^{1/3}\varepsilon^{-2/3}$, which is better than $d^{5/12}\varepsilon^{-1}$, the best known complexity achieved before our work. This convergence analysis is based on a randomized midpoint method, which is first proposed for log-concave sampling (Shen and Lee, 2019), and then extended to diffusion models by Gupta et al. (2024). Our theory accommodates $\varepsilon$-accurate score estimates, and does not require log-concavity on the target distribution. Moreover, the algorithm can also be parallelized to run in only $O(\log^2(d/\varepsilon))$ parallel rounds in a similar way to prior works.
A theoretical perspective on mode collapse in variational inference
Soletskyi, Roman, Gabrié, Marylou, Loureiro, Bruno
While deep learning has expanded the possibilities for highly expressive variational families, the practical benefits of these tools for variational inference (VI) are often limited by the minimization of the traditional Kullback-Leibler objective, which can yield suboptimal solutions. A major challenge in this context is \emph{mode collapse}: the phenomenon where a model concentrates on a few modes of the target distribution during training, despite being statistically capable of expressing them all. In this work, we carry a theoretical investigation of mode collapse for the gradient flow on Gaussian mixture models. We identify the key low-dimensional statistics characterizing the flow, and derive a closed set of low-dimensional equations governing their evolution. Leveraging this compact description, we show that mode collapse is present even in statistically favorable scenarios, and identify two key mechanisms driving it: mean alignment and vanishing weight. Our theoretical findings are consistent with the implementation of VI using normalizing flows, a class of popular generative models, thereby offering practical insights.
Local transfer learning Gaussian process modeling, with applications to surrogate modeling of expensive computer simulators
Wang, Xinming, Mak, Simon, Miller, John, Wu, Jianguo
A critical bottleneck for scientific progress is the costly nature of computer simulations for complex systems. Surrogate models provide an appealing solution: such models are trained on simulator evaluations, then used to emulate and quantify uncertainty on the expensive simulator at unexplored inputs. In many applications, one often has available data on related systems. For example, in designing a new jet turbine, there may be existing studies on turbines with similar configurations. A key question is how information from such "source" systems can be transferred for effective surrogate training on the "target" system of interest. We thus propose a new LOcal transfer Learning Gaussian Process (LOL-GP) model, which leverages a carefully-designed Gaussian process to transfer such information for surrogate modeling. The key novelty of the LOL-GP is a latent regularization model, which identifies regions where transfer should be performed and regions where it should be avoided. This "local transfer" property is desirable in scientific systems: at certain parameters, such systems may behave similarly and thus transfer is beneficial; at other parameters, they may behave differently and thus transfer is detrimental. By accounting for local transfer, the LOL-GP can rectify a critical limitation of "negative transfer" in existing transfer learning models, where the transfer of information worsens predictive performance. We derive a Gibbs sampling algorithm for efficient posterior predictive sampling on the LOL-GP, for both the multi-source and multi-fidelity transfer settings. We then show, via a suite of numerical experiments and an application for jet turbine design, the improved surrogate performance of the LOL-GP over existing methods.
Nonlinear bayesian tomography of ion temperature and velocity for Doppler coherence imaging spectroscopy in RT-1
Ueda, Kenji, Nishiura, Masaki.
We present a novel Bayesian tomography approach for Coherence Imaging Spectroscopy (CIS) that simultaneously reconstructs ion temperature and velocity distributions in plasmas. Utilizing nonlinear Gaussian Process Tomography (GPT) with the Laplace approximation, we model prior distributions of log-emissivity, temperature, and velocity as Gaussian processes. This framework rigorously incorporates nonlinear effects and temperature dependencies often neglected in conventional CIS tomography, enabling robust reconstruction even in the region of high temperature and velocity. By applying a log-Gaussian process, we also address issues like velocity divergence in low-emissivity regions. Validated with phantom simulations and experimental data from the RT-1 device, our method reveals detailed spatial structures of ion temperature and toroidal ion flow characteristic of magnetospheric plasma. This work significantly broadens the scope of CIS tomography, offering a robust tool for plasma diagnostics and facilitating integration with complementary measurement techniques.
A Fast Convoluted Story: Scaling Probabilistic Inference for Integer Arithmetic
De Smet, Lennert, Martires, Pedro Zuidberg Dos
As illustrated by the success of integer linear programming, linear integer arithmetic is a powerful tool for modelling combinatorial problems. Furthermore, the probabilistic extension of linear programming has been used to formulate problems in neurosymbolic AI. However, two key problems persist that prevent the adoption of neurosymbolic techniques beyond toy problems. First, probabilistic inference is inherently hard, #P-hard to be precise. Second, the discrete nature of integers renders the construction of meaningful gradients challenging, which is problematic for learning. In order to mitigate these issues, we formulate linear arithmetic over integer-valued random variables as tensor manipulations that can be implemented in a straightforward fashion using modern deep learning libraries. At the core of our formulation lies the observation that the addition of two integer-valued random variables can be performed by adapting the fast Fourier transform to probabilities in the log-domain. By relying on tensor operations we obtain a differentiable data structure, which unlocks, virtually for free, gradient-based learning. In our experimental validation we show that tensorising probabilistic linear integer arithmetic and leveraging the fast Fourier transform allows us to push the state of the art by several orders of magnitude in terms of inference and learning times.