Designing causal bandit algorithms depends on two central categories of assumptions: (i) the extent of information about the underlying causal graphs and (ii) the extent of information about interventional statistical models. There have been extensive recent advances in dispensing with assumptions on either category. These include assuming known graphs but unknown interventional distributions, and the converse setting of assuming unknown graphs but access to restrictive hard/$\operatorname{do}$ interventions, which removes the stochasticity and ancestral dependencies. Nevertheless, the problem in its general form, i.e., unknown graph and unknown stochastic intervention models, remains open. This paper addresses this problem and establishes that in a graph with $N$ nodes, maximum in-degree $d$ and maximum causal path length $L$, after $T$ interaction rounds the regret upper bound scales as $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}((cd)^{L-\frac{1}{2}}\sqrt{T} + d + RN)$ where $c>1$ is a constant and $R$ is a measure of intervention power. A universal minimax lower bound is also established, which scales as $\Omega(d^{L-\frac{3}{2}}\sqrt{T})$. Importantly, the graph size $N$ has a diminishing effect on the regret as $T$ grows. These bounds have matching behavior in $T$, exponential dependence on $L$, and polynomial dependence on $d$ (with the gap $d\ $). On the algorithmic aspect, the paper presents a novel way of designing a computationally efficient CB algorithm, addressing a challenge that the existing CB algorithms using soft interventions face.

General state-space models (SSMs) are widely used in statistical machine learning and are among the most classical generative models for sequential time-series data. SSMs, comprising latent Markovian states, can be subjected to variational inference (VI), but standard VI methods like the importance-weighted autoencoder (IWAE) lack functionality for streaming data. To enable online VI in SSMs when the observations are received in real time, we propose maximising an IWAE-type variational lower bound on the asymptotic contrast function, rather than the standard IWAE ELBO, using stochastic approximation. Unlike the recursive maximum likelihood method, which directly maximises the asymptotic contrast, our approach, called online sequential IWAE (OSIWAE), allows for online learning of both model parameters and a Markovian recognition model for inferring latent states. By approximating filter state posteriors and their derivatives using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, we create a particle-based framework for online VI in SSMs. This approach is more theoretically well-founded than recently proposed online variational SMC methods. We provide rigorous theoretical results on the learning objective and a numerical study demonstrating the method's efficiency in learning model parameters and particle proposal kernels.

This paper introduces the risk-sensitive control as inference (RCaI) that extends CaI by using R\'{e}nyi divergence variational inference. RCaI is shown to be equivalent to log-probability regularized risk-sensitive control, which is an extension of the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) control. We also prove that the risk-sensitive optimal policy can be obtained by solving a soft Bellman equation, which reveals several equivalences between RCaI, MaxEnt control, the optimal posterior for CaI, and linearly-solvable control. Moreover, based on RCaI, we derive the risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) methods: the policy gradient and the soft actor-critic. As the risk-sensitivity parameter vanishes, we recover the risk-neutral CaI and RL, which means that RCaI is a unifying framework. Furthermore, we give another risk-sensitive generalization of the MaxEnt control using R\'{e}nyi entropy regularization. We show that in both of our extensions, the optimal policies have the same structure even though the derivations are very different.

Adding noise is easy; what about denoising? Diffusion is easy; what about reverting a diffusion? Diffusion-based generative models aim to denoise a Langevin diffusion chain, moving from a log-concave equilibrium measure $\nu$, say isotropic Gaussian, back to a complex, possibly non-log-concave initial measure $\mu$. The score function performs denoising, going backward in time, predicting the conditional mean of the past location given the current. We show that score denoising is the optimal backward map in transportation cost. What is its localization uncertainty? We show that the curvature function determines this localization uncertainty, measured as the conditional variance of the past location given the current. We study in this paper the effectiveness of the diffuse-then-denoise process: the contraction of the forward diffusion chain, offset by the possible expansion of the backward denoising chain, governs the denoising difficulty. For any initial measure $\mu$, we prove that this offset net contraction at time $t$ is characterized by the curvature complexity of a smoothed $\mu$ at a specific signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) scale $r(t)$. We discover that the multi-scale curvature complexity collectively determines the difficulty of the denoising chain. Our multi-scale complexity quantifies a fine-grained notion of average-case curvature instead of the worst-case. Curiously, it depends on an integrated tail function, measuring the relative mass of locations with positive curvature versus those with negative curvature; denoising at a specific SNR scale is easy if such an integrated tail is light. We conclude with several non-log-concave examples to demonstrate how the multi-scale complexity probes the bottleneck SNR for the diffuse-then-denoise process.

Efficient sampling from un-normalized target distributions is pivotal in scientific computing and machine learning. While neural samplers have demonstrated potential with a special emphasis on sampling efficiency, existing neural implicit samplers still have issues such as poor mode covering behavior, unstable training dynamics, and sub-optimal performances. To tackle these issues, in this paper, we introduce Denoising Fisher Training (DFT), a novel training approach for neural implicit samplers with theoretical guarantees. We frame the training problem as an objective of minimizing the Fisher divergence by deriving a tractable yet equivalent loss function, which marks a unique theoretical contribution to assessing the intractable Fisher divergences. DFT is empirically validated across diverse sampling benchmarks, including two-dimensional synthetic distribution, Bayesian logistic regression, and high-dimensional energy-based models (EBMs). Notably, in experiments with high-dimensional EBMs, our best one-step DFT neural sampler achieves results on par with MCMC methods with up to 200 sampling steps, leading to a substantially greater efficiency over 100 times higher. This result not only demonstrates the superior performance of DFT in handling complex high-dimensional sampling but also sheds light on efficient sampling methodologies across broader applications.

Expert systems are effective tools for automatically identifying energy efficiency potentials in manufacturing, thereby contributing significantly to global climate targets. These systems analyze energy data, pinpoint inefficiencies, and recommend optimizations to reduce energy consumption. Beyond systematic approaches for developing expert systems, there is a pressing need for simple and rapid software implementation solutions. Expert system shells, which facilitate the swift development and deployment of expert systems, are crucial tools in this process. They provide a template that simplifies the creation and integration of expert systems into existing manufacturing processes. This paper provides a comprehensive comparison of existing expert system shells regarding their suitability for improving energy efficiency, highlighting significant gaps and limitations. To address these deficiencies, we introduce a novel expert system shell, implemented in Jupyter Notebook, that provides a flexible and easily integrable solution for expert system development.

This paper develops theory and algorithms for interacting large language model agents (LLMAs) using methods from statistical signal processing and microeconomics. While both fields are mature, their application to decision-making by interacting LLMAs remains unexplored. Motivated by Bayesian sentiment analysis on online platforms, we construct interpretable models and stochastic control algorithms that enable LLMAs to interact and perform Bayesian inference. Because interacting LLMAs learn from prior decisions and external inputs, they exhibit bias and herding behavior. Thus, developing interpretable models and stochastic control algorithms is essential to understand and mitigate these behaviors. This paper has three main results. First, we show using Bayesian revealed preferences from microeconomics that an individual LLMA satisfies the sufficient conditions for rationally inattentive (bounded rationality) utility maximization and, given an observation, the LLMA chooses an action that maximizes a regularized utility. Second, we utilize Bayesian social learning to construct interpretable models for LLMAs that interact sequentially with each other and the environment while performing Bayesian inference. Our models capture the herding behavior exhibited by interacting LLMAs. Third, we propose a stochastic control framework to delay herding and improve state estimation accuracy under two settings: (a) centrally controlled LLMAs and (b) autonomous LLMAs with incentives. Throughout the paper, we demonstrate the efficacy of our methods on real datasets for hate speech classification and product quality assessment, using open-source models like Mistral and closed-source models like ChatGPT. The main takeaway of this paper, based on substantial empirical analysis and mathematical formalism, is that LLMAs act as rationally bounded Bayesian agents that exhibit social learning when interacting.

We investigate what kind of images lie in the high-density regions of diffusion models. We introduce a theoretical mode-tracking process capable of pinpointing the exact mode of the denoising distribution, and we propose a practical high-probability sampler that consistently generates images of higher likelihood than usual samplers. Our empirical findings reveal the existence of significantly higher likelihood samples that typical samplers do not produce, often manifesting as cartoon-like drawings or blurry images depending on the noise level. Curiously, these patterns emerge in datasets devoid of such examples. We also present a novel approach to track sample likelihoods in diffusion SDEs, which remarkably incurs no additional computational cost.

This paper addresses the challenges of predicting bioprocess performance, particularly in monoclonal antibody (mAb) production, where conventional statistical methods often fall short due to time-series data's complexity and high dimensionality. We propose a novel Hyperbox Mixture Regression (HMR) model which employs hyperbox-based input space partitioning to enhance predictive accuracy while managing uncertainty inherent in bioprocess data. The HMR model is designed to dynamically generate hyperboxes for input samples in a single-pass process, thereby improving learning speed and reducing computational complexity. Our experimental study utilizes a dataset that contains 106 bioreactors. This study evaluates the model's performance in predicting critical quality attributes in monoclonal antibody manufacturing over a 15-day cultivation period. The results demonstrate that the HMR model outperforms comparable approximators in accuracy and learning speed and maintains interpretability and robustness under uncertain conditions. These findings underscore the potential of HMR as a powerful tool for enhancing predictive analytics in bioprocessing applications.

Complex events originate from other primitive events combined according to defined patterns and rules. Instead of using specialists' manual work to compose the model rules, we use machine learning (ML) to self-define these patterns and regulations based on incoming input data to produce the desired complex event. Complex events processing (CEP) uncertainty is critical for embedded and safety-critical systems. This paper exemplifies how we can measure uncertainty for the perception and prediction of events, encompassing embedded systems that can also be critical to safety. Then, we propose an approach (ML\_CP) incorporating ML and sensitivity analysis that verifies how the output varies according to each input parameter. Furthermore, our model also measures the uncertainty associated with the predicted complex event. Therefore, we use conformal prediction to build prediction intervals, as the model itself has uncertainties, and the data has noise. Also, we tested our approach with classification (binary and multi-level) and regression problems test cases. Finally, we present and discuss our results, which are very promising within our field of research and work.