Multimodal survival analysis aims to combine heterogeneous data sources (e.g., clinical, imaging, text, genomics) to improve the prediction quality of survival outcomes. However, this task is particularly challenging due to high heterogeneity and noise across data sources, which vary in structure, distribution, and context. Additionally, the ground truth is often censored (uncertain) due to incomplete follow-up data. In this paper, we propose a novel evidential multimodal survival fusion model, EsurvFusion, designed to combine multimodal data at the decision level through an evidence-based decision fusion layer that jointly addresses both data and model uncertainty while incorporating modality-level reliability. Specifically, EsurvFusion first models unimodal data with newly introduced Gaussian random fuzzy numbers, producing unimodal survival predictions along with corresponding aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. It then estimates modality-level reliability through a reliability discounting layer to correct the misleading impact of noisy data modalities. Finally, a multimodal evidence-based fusion layer is introduced to combine the discounted predictions to form a unified, interpretable multimodal survival analysis model, revealing each modality's influence based on the learned reliability coefficients. This is the first work that studies multimodal survival analysis with both uncertainty and reliability. Extensive experiments on four multimodal survival datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in handling high heterogeneity data, establishing new state-of-the-art on several benchmarks.

Causal discovery is a crucial endeavor in many scientific fields. Specifically, it focuses on revealing the causal structures within the data. Generally, causal discovery can be carried out through one of two data collection approaches - observational data-based discovery and interventional or experimental data-based discovery. Most of past research employs observational methods, such as those using conditional independence tests, to provide valuable insights into causal structure. However, these methods have significant limitations, as they often face challenges from confounding variables and their inability to determine causality conclusively [1, 2].

Driven by the critical challenges in biomanufacturing, including high complexity and high uncertainty, we propose a comprehensive and computationally efficient sensitivity analysis framework for general nonlinear policy-augmented knowledge graphical (pKG) hybrid models that characterize the risk- and science-based understandings of underlying stochastic decision process mechanisms. The criticality of each input (i.e., random factors, policy parameters, and model parameters) is measured by applying Shapley value (SV) sensitivity analysis to pKG (called SV-pKG), accounting for process causal interdependences. To quickly assess the SV for heavily instrumented bioprocesses, we approximate their dynamics with linear Gaussian pKG models and improve the SV estimation efficiency by utilizing the linear Gaussian properties. In addition, we propose an effective permutation sampling method with TFWW transformation and variance reduction techniques, namely the quasi-Monte Carlo and antithetic sampling methods, to further improve the sampling efficiency and estimation accuracy of SV for both general nonlinear and linear Gaussian pKG models. Our proposed framework can benefit efficient interpretation and support stable optimal process control in biomanufacturing.

However, training EBMs on data in discrete or mixed state spaces poses significant challenges due to the lack of robust and fast sampling methods. In this work, we propose to train discrete EBMs with Energy Discrepancy, a loss function which only requires the evaluation of the energy function at data points and their perturbed counterparts, thus eliminating the need for Markov chain Monte Carlo. We introduce perturbations of the data distribution by simulating a diffusion process on the discrete state space endowed with a graph structure. This allows us to inform the choice of perturbation from the structure of the modelled discrete variable, while the continuous time parameter enables fine-grained control of the perturbation. Empirically, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approaches in a wide range of applications, including the estimation of discrete densities with non-binary vocabulary and binary image modelling. Finally, we train EBMs on tabular data sets with applications in synthetic data generation and calibrated classification.

High-dimensional vectors have been proposed as a neural method for representing information in the brain using Vector Symbolic Algebras (VSAs). While previous work has explored decoding and cleaning up these vectors under the noise that arises during computation, existing methods are limited. Cleanup methods are essential for robust computation within a VSA. However, cleanup methods for continuous-value encodings are not as effective. In this paper, we present an iterative optimization method to decode and clean up Fourier Holographic Reduced Representation (FHRR) vectors that are encoding continuous values. We combine composite likelihood estimation (CLE) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to ensure convergence to the global optimum. We also demonstrate that this method can effectively decode FHRR vectors under different noise conditions, and show that it outperforms existing methods.

Lumbar spine problems are ubiquitous, motivating research into targeted imaging for treatment planning and guided interventions. While high resolution and high contrast CT has been the modality of choice, MRI can capture both bone and soft tissue without the ionizing radiation of CT albeit longer acquisition time. The critical trade-off between contrast quality and acquisition time has motivated 'thick slice MRI', which prioritises faster imaging with high in-plane resolution but variable contrast and low through-plane resolution. We investigate a recently developed post-acquisition pipeline which segments vertebrae from thick-slice acquisitions and uses a variational autoencoder to enhance quality after an initial 3D reconstruction. We instead propose a latent space diffusion energy-based prior to leverage diffusion models, which exhibit high-quality image generation. Crucially, we mitigate their high computational cost and low sample efficiency by learning an energy-based latent representation to perform the diffusion processes. Our resulting method outperforms existing approaches across metrics including Dice and VS scores, and more faithfully captures 3D features.

Robotic surface consisting of many actuators can change shape to perform tasks, such as facilitating human-machine interactions and transporting objects. Increasing the number of actuators can enhance the robot's capacity, but controlling them requires communication bandwidth to increase equally in order to avoid time delays. We propose a novel control method that has constant time delays no matter how many actuators are in the robot. Having a distributed nature, the method first approximates target shapes, then broadcasts the approximation coefficients to the actuators, and relies on themselves to compute the inputs. We build a robotic pin array and measure the time delay as a function of the number of actuators to confirm the system size-independent scaling behavior. The shape-changing ability is achieved based on function approximation algorithms, i.e. discrete cosine transform or matching pursuit. We perform experiments to approximate target shapes and make quantitative comparison with those obtained from standard sequential control method. A good agreement between the experiments and theoretical predictions is achieved, and our method is more efficient in the sense that it requires less control messages to generate shapes with the same accuracy. Our method is also capable of dynamic tasks such as object manipulation.

The Tweedie exponential dispersion family is a popular choice among many to model insurance losses that consist of zero-inflated semicontinuous data. In such data, it is often important to obtain credibility (inference) of the most important features that describe the endogenous variables. Post-selection inference is the standard procedure in statistics to obtain confidence intervals of model parameters after performing a feature extraction procedure. For a linear model, the lasso estimate often has non-negligible estimation bias for large coefficients corresponding to exogenous variables. To have valid inference on those coefficients, it is necessary to correct the bias of the lasso estimate. Traditional statistical methods, such as hypothesis testing or standard confidence interval construction might lead to incorrect conclusions during post-selection, as they are generally too optimistic. Here we discuss a few methodologies for constructing confidence intervals of the coefficients after feature selection in the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) family with application to insurance data.

Diffusion models have shown strong performances in solving inverse problems through posterior sampling while they suffer from errors during earlier steps. To mitigate this issue, several Decoupled Posterior Sampling methods have been recently proposed. However, the reverse process in these methods ignores measurement information, leading to errors that impede effective optimization in subsequent steps. To solve this problem, we propose Guided Decoupled Posterior Sampling (GDPS) by integrating a data consistency constraint in the reverse process. The constraint performs a smoother transition within the optimization process, facilitating a more effective convergence toward the target distribution. Furthermore, we extend our method to latent diffusion models and Tweedie's formula, demonstrating its scalability. We evaluate GDPS on the FFHQ and ImageNet datasets across various linear and nonlinear tasks under both standard and challenging conditions. Experimental results demonstrate that GDPS achieves state-of-the-art performance, improving accuracy over existing methods.

Due to network operation and maintenance relying heavily on network traffic monitoring, traffic matrix analysis has been one of the most crucial issues for network management related tasks. However, it is challenging to reliably obtain the precise measurement in computer networks because of the high measurement cost, and the unavoidable transmission loss. Although some methods proposed in recent years allowed estimating network traffic from partial flow-level or link-level measurements, they often perform poorly for traffic matrix estimation nowadays. Despite strong assumptions like low-rank structure and the prior distribution, existing techniques are usually task-specific and tend to be significantly worse as modern network communication is extremely complicated and dynamic. To address the dilemma, this paper proposed a diffusion-based traffic matrix analysis framework named Diffusion-TM, which leverages problem-agnostic diffusion to notably elevate the estimation performance in both traffic distribution and accuracy. The novel framework not only takes advantage of the powerful generative ability of diffusion models to produce realistic network traffic, but also leverages the denoising process to unbiasedly estimate all end-to-end traffic in a plug-and-play manner under theoretical guarantee. Moreover, taking into account that compiling an intact traffic dataset is usually infeasible, we also propose a two-stage training scheme to make our framework be insensitive to missing values in the dataset. With extensive experiments with real-world datasets, we illustrate the effectiveness of Diffusion-TM on several tasks. Moreover, the results also demonstrate that our method can obtain promising results even with $5\%$ known values left in the datasets.