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 Uncertainty


Prediction of Occluded Pedestrians in Road Scenes using Human-like Reasoning: Insights from the OccluRoads Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pedestrian detection is a critical task in autonomous driving, aimed at enhancing safety and reducing risks on the road. Over recent years, significant advancements have been made in improving detection performance. However, these achievements still fall short of human perception, particularly in cases involving occluded pedestrians, especially entirely invisible ones. In this work, we present the Occlusion-Rich Road Scenes with Pedestrians (OccluRoads) dataset, which features a diverse collection of road scenes with partially and fully occluded pedestrians in both real and virtual environments. All scenes are meticulously labeled and enriched with contextual information that encapsulates human perception in such scenarios. Using this dataset, we developed a pipeline to predict the presence of occluded pedestrians, leveraging Knowledge Graph (KG), Knowledge Graph Embedding (KGE), and a Bayesian inference process. Our approach achieves a F1 score of 0.91, representing an improvement of up to 42% compared to traditional machine learning models.


Safety Monitoring of Machine Learning Perception Functions: a Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine Learning (ML) models, such as deep neural networks, are widely applied in autonomous systems to perform complex perception tasks. New dependability challenges arise when ML predictions are used in safety-critical applications, like autonomous cars and surgical robots. Thus, the use of fault tolerance mechanisms, such as safety monitors, is essential to ensure the safe behavior of the system despite the occurrence of faults. This paper presents an extensive literature review on safety monitoring of perception functions using ML in a safety-critical context. In this review, we structure the existing literature to highlight key factors to consider when designing such monitors: threat identification, requirements elicitation, detection of failure, reaction, and evaluation. We also highlight the ongoing challenges associated with safety monitoring and suggest directions for future research.


BayesCNS: A Unified Bayesian Approach to Address Cold Start and Non-Stationarity in Search Systems at Scale

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Information Retrieval (IR) systems used in search and recommendation platforms frequently employ Learning-to-Rank (LTR) models to rank items in response to user queries. These models heavily rely on features derived from user interactions, such as clicks and engagement data. This dependence introduces cold start issues for items lacking user engagement and poses challenges in adapting to non-stationary shifts in user behavior over time. We address both challenges holistically as an online learning problem and propose BayesCNS, a Bayesian approach designed to handle cold start and non-stationary distribution shifts in search systems at scale. BayesCNS achieves this by estimating prior distributions for user-item interactions, which are continuously updated with new user interactions gathered online. This online learning procedure is guided by a ranker model, enabling efficient exploration of relevant items using contextual information provided by the ranker. We successfully deployed BayesCNS in a large-scale search system and demonstrated its efficacy through comprehensive offline and online experiments. Notably, an online A/B experiment showed a 10.60% increase in new item interactions and a 1.05% improvement in overall success metrics over the existing production baseline.


From Uncertainty to Trust: Enhancing Reliability in Vision-Language Models with Uncertainty-Guided Dropout Decoding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in multimodal tasks but are prone to misinterpreting visual inputs, often resulting in hallucinations and unreliable outputs. To address these challenges, we propose Dropout Decoding, a novel inference-time approach that quantifies the uncertainty of visual tokens and selectively masks uncertain tokens to improve decoding. Our method measures the uncertainty of each visual token by projecting it onto the text space and decomposing it into aleatoric and epistemic components. Specifically, we focus on epistemic uncertainty, which captures perception-related errors more effectively. Inspired by dropout regularization, we introduce uncertainty-guided token dropout, which applies the dropout principle to input visual tokens instead of model parameters, and during inference rather than training. By aggregating predictions from an ensemble of masked decoding contexts, Dropout Decoding robustly mitigates errors arising from visual token misinterpretations. Evaluations on benchmarks including CHAIR, THRONE, and MMBench demonstrate that Dropout Decoding significantly reduces object hallucinations (OH) and enhances both reliability and quality of LVLM outputs across diverse visual contexts.


Mean--Variance Portfolio Selection by Continuous-Time Reinforcement Learning: Algorithms, Regret Analysis, and Empirical Study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study continuous-time mean--variance portfolio selection in markets where stock prices are diffusion processes driven by observable factors that are also diffusion processes yet the coefficients of these processes are unknown. Based on the recently developed reinforcement learning (RL) theory for diffusion processes, we present a general data-driven RL algorithm that learns the pre-committed investment strategy directly without attempting to learn or estimate the market coefficients. For multi-stock Black--Scholes markets without factors, we further devise a baseline algorithm and prove its performance guarantee by deriving a sublinear regret bound in terms of Sharpe ratio. For performance enhancement and practical implementation, we modify the baseline algorithm into four variants, and carry out an extensive empirical study to compare their performance, in terms of a host of common metrics, with a large number of widely used portfolio allocation strategies on S\&P 500 constituents. The results demonstrate that the continuous-time RL strategies are consistently among the best especially in a volatile bear market, and decisively outperform the model-based continuous-time counterparts by significant margins.


Experimenting with Multi-modal Information to Predict Success of Indian IPOs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With consistent growth in Indian Economy, Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) have become a popular avenue for investment. With the modern technology simplifying investments, more investors are interested in making data driven decisions while subscribing for IPOs. In this paper, we describe a machine learning and natural language processing based approach for estimating if an IPO will be successful. We have extensively studied the impact of various facts mentioned in IPO filing prospectus, macroeconomic factors, market conditions, Grey Market Price, etc. on the success of an IPO. We created two new datasets relating to the IPOs of Indian companies. Finally, we investigated how information from multiple modalities (texts, images, numbers, and categorical features) can be used for estimating the direction and underpricing with respect to opening, high and closing prices of stocks on the IPO listing day.


Fuzzy Norm-Explicit Product Quantization for Recommender Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As the data resources grow, providing recommendations that best meet the demands has become a vital requirement in business and life to overcome the information overload problem. However, building a system suggesting relevant recommendations has always been a point of debate. One of the most cost-efficient techniques in terms of producing relevant recommendations at a low complexity is Product Quantization (PQ). PQ approaches have continued developing in recent years. This system's crucial challenge is improving product quantization performance in terms of recall measures without compromising its complexity. This makes the algorithm suitable for problems that require a greater number of potentially relevant items without disregarding others, at high-speed and low-cost to keep up with traffic. This is the case of online shops where the recommendations for the purpose are important, although customers can be susceptible to scoping other products. This research proposes a fuzzy approach to perform norm-based product quantization. Type-2 Fuzzy sets (T2FSs) define the codebook allowing sub-vectors (T2FSs) to be associated with more than one element of the codebook, and next, its norm calculus is resolved by means of integration. Our method finesses the recall measure up, making the algorithm suitable for problems that require querying at most possible potential relevant items without disregarding others. The proposed method outperforms all PQ approaches such as NEQ, PQ, and RQ up to +6%, +5%, and +8% by achieving a recall of 94%, 69%, 59% in Netflix, Audio, Cifar60k datasets, respectively. More and over, computing time and complexity nearly equals the most computationally efficient existing PQ method in the state-of-the-art.


Can Generative AI Solve Your In-Context Learning Problem? A Martingale Perspective

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This work is about estimating when a conditional generative model (CGM) can solve an in-context learning (ICL) problem. An in-context learning (ICL) problem comprises a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction task. The CGM could be a multimodal foundation model; the dataset, a collection of patient histories, test results, and recorded diagnoses; and the prediction task to communicate a diagnosis to a new patient. A Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM computes a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model defining a joint distribution over latent explanations and observable data. From this perspective, Bayesian model criticism is a reasonable approach to assess the suitability of a given CGM for an ICL problem. However, such approaches--like posterior predictive checks (PPCs)--often assume that we can sample from the likelihood and posterior defined by the Bayesian model, which are not explicitly given for contemporary CGMs. To address this, we show when ancestral sampling from the predictive distribution of a CGM is equivalent to sampling datasets from the posterior predictive of the assumed Bayesian model. Then we develop the generative predictive p-value, which enables PPCs and their cousins for contemporary CGMs. The generative predictive p-value can then be used in a statistical decision procedure to determine when the model is appropriate for an ICL problem. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from a CGM and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic tabular, imaging, and natural language ICL tasks using large language models. An in-context learning (ICL) problem comprises a conditional generative model (CGM), a dataset, and a prediction task (Brown et al., 2020; Dong et al., 2022).


Training-Free Bayesianization for Low-Rank Adapters of Large Language Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Estimating the uncertainty of responses of Large Language Models~(LLMs) remains a critical challenge. While recent Bayesian methods have demonstrated effectiveness in quantifying uncertainty through low-rank weight updates, they typically require complex fine-tuning or post-training procedures. In this paper, we propose Training-Free Bayesianization~(TFB), a novel framework that transforms existing off-the-shelf trained LoRA adapters into Bayesian ones without additional training. TFB systematically searches for the maximally acceptable level of variance in the weight posterior, constrained within a family of low-rank isotropic Gaussian distributions. We theoretically demonstrate that under mild conditions, this search process is equivalent to variational inference for the weights. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that TFB achieves superior uncertainty estimation and generalization compared to existing methods while eliminating the need for complex training procedures. Code will be available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/bayesian-peft.


DM-SBL: Channel Estimation under Structured Interference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Channel estimation is a fundamental task in communication systems and is critical for effective demodulation. While most works deal with a simple scenario where the measurements are corrupted by the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN), this work addresses the more challenging scenario where both AWGN and structured interference coexist. Such conditions arise, for example, when a sonar/radar transmitter and a communication receiver operate simultaneously within the same bandwidth. To ensure accurate channel estimation in these scenarios, the sparsity of the channel in the delay domain and the complicate structure of the interference are jointly exploited. Firstly, the score of the structured interference is learned via a neural network based on the diffusion model (DM), while the channel prior is modeled as a Gaussian distribution, with its variance controlling channel sparsity, similar to the setup of the sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). Then, two efficient posterior sampling methods are proposed to jointly estimate the sparse channel and the interference. Nuisance parameters, such as the variance of the prior are estimated via the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The proposed method is termed as DM based SBL (DM-SBL). Numerical simulations demonstrate that DM-SBL significantly outperforms conventional approaches that deal with the AWGN scenario, particularly under low signal-to-interference ratio (SIR) conditions. Beyond channel estimation, DM-SBL also shows promise for addressing other linear inverse problems involving structured interference.