Uncertainty
Optimizing Few-Step Sampler for Diffusion Probabilistic Model
Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) have demonstrated exceptional capability of generating high-quality and diverse images, but their practical application is hindered by the intensive computational cost during inference. The DPM generation process requires solving a Probability-Flow Ordinary Differential Equation (PF-ODE), which involves discretizing the integration domain into intervals for numerical approximation. This corresponds to the sampling schedule of a diffusion ODE solver, and we notice the solution from a first-order solver can be expressed as a convex combination of model outputs at all scheduled time-steps. We derive an upper bound for the discretization error of the sampling schedule, which can be efficiently optimized with Monte-Carlo estimation. Building on these theoretical results, we purpose a two-phase alternating optimization algorithm. In Phase-1, the sampling schedule is optimized for the pre-trained DPM; in Phase-2, the DPM further tuned on the selected time-steps. Experiments on a pre-trained DPM for ImageNet64 dataset demonstrate the purposed method consistently improves the baseline across various number of sampling steps.
Fast and Robust Visuomotor Riemannian Flow Matching Policy
Ding, Haoran, Jaquier, Noรฉmie, Peters, Jan, Rozo, Leonel
Diffusion-based visuomotor policies excel at learning complex robotic tasks by effectively combining visual data with high-dimensional, multi-modal action distributions. However, diffusion models often suffer from slow inference due to costly denoising processes or require complex sequential training arising from recent distilling approaches. This paper introduces Riemannian Flow Matching Policy (RFMP), a model that inherits the easy training and fast inference capabilities of flow matching (FM). Moreover, RFMP inherently incorporates geometric constraints commonly found in realistic robotic applications, as the robot state resides on a Riemannian manifold. To enhance the robustness of RFMP, we propose Stable RFMP (SRFMP), which leverages LaSalle's invariance principle to equip the dynamics of FM with stability to the support of a target Riemannian distribution. Rigorous evaluation on eight simulated and real-world tasks show that RFMP successfully learns and synthesizes complex sensorimotor policies on Euclidean and Riemannian spaces with efficient training and inference phases, outperforming Diffusion Policies while remaining competitive with Consistency Policies.
Explainable Fuzzy Neural Network with Multi-Fidelity Reinforcement Learning for Micro-Architecture Design Space Exploration
Fan, Hanwei, Wang, Ya, Li, Sicheng, Liang, Tingyuan, Zhang, Wei
With the continuous advancement of processors, modern micro-architecture designs have become increasingly complex. The vast design space presents significant challenges for human designers, making design space exploration (DSE) algorithms a significant tool for $\mu$-arch design. In recent years, efforts have been made in the development of DSE algorithms, and promising results have been achieved. However, the existing DSE algorithms, e.g., Bayesian Optimization and ensemble learning, suffer from poor interpretability, hindering designers' understanding of the decision-making process. To address this limitation, we propose utilizing Fuzzy Neural Networks to induce and summarize knowledge and insights from the DSE process, enhancing interpretability and controllability. Furthermore, to improve efficiency, we introduce a multi-fidelity reinforcement learning approach, which primarily conducts exploration using cheap but less precise data, thereby substantially diminishing the reliance on costly data. Experimental results show that our method achieves excellent results with a very limited sample budget and successfully surpasses the current state-of-the-art. Our DSE framework is open-sourced and available at https://github.com/fanhanwei/FNN\_MFRL\_ArchDSE/\ .
Energy-Efficient Sampling Using Stochastic Magnetic Tunnel Junctions
Alder, Nicolas, Kajale, Shivam Nitin, Tunsiricharoengul, Milin, Sarkar, Deblina, Herbrich, Ralf
We introduce an energy-efficient algorithm for uniform Float16 sampling, utilizing a roomtemperature stochastic magnetic tunnel junction device to generate truly random floating-point numbers. By avoiding expensive symbolic computation and mapping physical phenomena directly to the statistical properties of the floating-point format and uniform distribution, our approach achieves a higher level of energy efficiency than the state-of-the-art Mersenne-Twister algorithm by a minimum factor of 9721 and an improvement factor of 5649 compared to the more energy-efficient PCG algorithm. Building on this sampling technique and hardware framework, we decompose arbitrary distributions into many non-overlapping approximative uniform distributions along with convolution and prior-likelihood operations, which allows us to sample from any 1D distribution without closed-form solutions. We provide measurements of the potential accumulated approximation errors, demonstrating the effectiveness of our method. This not only increases the cost of products, but also presents obstacles in addressing climate change. Traditional AI methods like deep learning lack the ability to quantify uncertainties, which is crucial to address issues such as hallucinations or ensuring safety in critical tasks. Probabilistic machine learning, while providing a theoretical framework for achieving muchneeded uncertainty quantification, also suffers from high energy consumption and is unviable on a truly large scale due to insufficient computational resources (Izmailov et al., 2021). At the heart of probabilistic machine learning and Bayesian inference is Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling (Kass et al., 1998; Murphy, 2012; Hoffman & Gelman, 2014). Although effective in generating samples from complex distributions, MCMC is known for its substantial computational and energy requirements, making it unsuitable for large-scale deployment for applications such as Bayesian neural networks (Izmailov et al., 2021). In general, random number generation is an expensive task that is required in many machine learning algorithms. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel hardware framework aimed at improving energy efficiency, in particular tailored for probabilistic machine learning methods. Our framework builds on uniform floating-point format sampling utilizing stochastically switching magnetic tunnel junction (s-MTJ) devices as a foundation, achieving significant gains in both computational resources and energy consumption compared to current pseudorandom number generators. In contrast to existing generators, this device-focused strategy not only enhances sampling efficiency but also incorporates genuine randomness originating from the thermal noise in our devices.
Digital Twin Enabled Runtime Verification for Autonomous Mobile Robots under Uncertainty
Betzer, Joakim Schack, Boudjadar, Jalil, Frasheri, Mirgita, Talasila, Prasad
As autonomous robots increasingly navigate complex and unpredictable environments, ensuring their reliable behavior under uncertainty becomes a critical challenge. This paper introduces a digital twin-based runtime verification for an autonomous mobile robot to mitigate the impact posed by uncertainty in the deployment environment. The safety and performance properties are specified and synthesized as runtime monitors using TeSSLa. The integration of the executable digital twin, via the MQTT protocol, enables continuous monitoring and validation of the robot's behavior in real-time. We explore the sources of uncertainties, including sensor noise and environment variations, and analyze their impact on the robot safety and performance. Equipped with high computation resources, the cloud-located digital twin serves as a watch-dog model to estimate the actual state, check the consistency of the robot's actuations and intervene to override such actuations if a safety or performance property is about to be violated. The experimental analysis demonstrated high efficiency of the proposed approach in ensuring the reliability and robustness of the autonomous robot behavior in uncertain environments and securing high alignment between the actual and expected speeds where the difference is reduced by up to 41\% compared to the default robot navigation control.
Learning payoffs while routing in skill-based queues
van Kempen, Sanne, Sanders, Jaron, Sloothaak, Fiona, Wolf, Maarten G.
Motivated by applications in service systems, we consider queueing systems where each customer must be handled by a server with the right skill set. We focus on optimizing the routing of customers to servers in order to maximize the total payoff of customer--server matches. In addition, customer--server dependent payoff parameters are assumed to be unknown a priori. We construct a machine learning algorithm that adaptively learns the payoff parameters while maximizing the total payoff and prove that it achieves polylogarithmic regret. Moreover, we show that the algorithm is asymptotically optimal up to logarithmic terms by deriving a regret lower bound. The algorithm leverages the basic feasible solutions of a static linear program as the action space. The regret analysis overcomes the complex interplay between queueing and learning by analyzing the convergence of the queue length process to its stationary behavior. We also demonstrate the performance of the algorithm numerically, and have included an experiment with time-varying parameters highlighting the potential of the algorithm in non-static environments.
Evidential time-to-event prediction with calibrated uncertainty quantification
Huang, Ling, Xing, Yucheng, Mishra, Swapnil, Denoeux, Thierry, Feng, Mengling
Time-to-event analysis provides insights into clinical prognosis and treatment recommendations. However, this task is more challenging than standard regression problems due to the presence of censored observations. Additionally, the lack of confidence assessment, model robustness, and prediction calibration raises concerns about the reliability of predictions. To address these challenges, we propose an evidential regression model specifically designed for time-to-event prediction. The proposed model quantifies both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties using Gaussian Random Fuzzy Numbers and belief functions, providing clinicians with uncertainty-aware survival time predictions. The model is trained by minimizing a generalized negative log-likelihood function accounting for data censoring. Experimental evaluations using simulated datasets with different data distributions and censoring conditions, as well as real-world datasets across diverse clinical applications, demonstrate that our model delivers both accurate and reliable performance, outperforming state-of-the-art methods. These results highlight the potential of our approach for enhancing clinical decision-making in survival analysis.
A novel ML-fuzzy control system for optimizing PHEV fuel efficiency and extending electric range under diverse driving conditions
Raeesi, Mehrdad, Mansour, Saba, Changizian, Sina
Aiming for a greener transportation future, this study introduces an innovative control system for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) that utilizes machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast energy usage in the pure electric mode of the vehicle and optimize power allocation across different operational modes, including pure electric, series hybrid, parallel hybrid, and internal combustion operation. The fuzzy logic decision-making process governs the vehicle control system. The performance was assessed under various driving conditions. Key findings include a significant enhancement in pure electric mode efficiency, achieving an extended full-electric range of approximately 84 kilometers on an 80% utilization of a 20-kWh battery pack. During the WLTC driving cycle, the control system reduced fuel consumption to 2.86 L/100km, representing a 20% reduction in gasoline-equivalent fuel consumption. Evaluations of vehicle performance at discrete driving speeds, highlighted effective energy management, with the vehicle battery charging at lower speeds and discharging at higher speeds, showing optimized energy recovery and consumption strategies. Initial battery charge levels notably influenced vehicle performance. A 90% initial charge enabled prolonged all-electric operation, minimizing fuel consumption to 2 L/100km less than that of the base control system. Real-world driving pattern analysis revealed significant variations, with shorter, slower cycles requiring lower fuel consumption due to prioritized electric propulsion, while longer, faster cycles increased internal combustion engine usage. The control system also adapted to different battery state of health (SOH) conditions, with higher SOH facilitating extended electric mode usage, reducing total fuel consumption by up to 2.87 L/100km.
Speeding up approximate MAP by applying domain knowledge about relevant variables
Kwisthout, Johan, Schroeder, Andrew
The MAP problem in Bayesian networks is notoriously intractable, even when approximated. In an earlier paper we introduced the Most Frugal Explanation heuristic approach to solving MAP, by partitioning the set of intermediate variables (neither observed nor part of the MAP variables) into a set of relevant variables, which are marginalized out, and irrelevant variables, which will be assigned a sampled value from their domain. In this study we explore whether knowledge about which variables are relevant for a particular query (i.e., domain knowledge) speeds up computation sufficiently to beat both exact MAP as well as approximate MAP while giving reasonably accurate results. Our results are inconclusive, but also show that this probably depends on the specifics of the MAP query, most prominently the number of MAP variables.
Causal Graphical Models for Vision-Language Compositional Understanding
Parascandolo, Fiorenzo, Moratelli, Nicholas, Sangineto, Enver, Baraldi, Lorenzo, Cucchiara, Rita
Recent work has empirically shown that Vision-Language Models (VLMs) struggle to fully understand the compositional properties of the human language, usually modeling an image caption as a "bag of words". As a result, they perform poorly on compositional tasks, which require a deeper understanding of the different entities of a sentence (subject, verb, etc.) jointly with their mutual relationships in order to be solved. In this paper, we model the dependency relations among textual and visual tokens using a Causal Graphical Model (CGM), built using a dependency parser, and we train a decoder conditioned by the VLM visual encoder. Differently from standard autoregressive or parallel predictions, our decoder's generative process is partially-ordered following the CGM structure. This structure encourages the decoder to learn only the main causal dependencies in a sentence discarding spurious correlations. Using extensive experiments on five compositional benchmarks, we show that our method significantly outperforms all the state-of-the-art compositional approaches by a large margin, and it also improves over methods trained using much larger datasets.