Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for scientific data analysis. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we study nonparametrically perturbed parametric (NPP) Bayesian models, in which a parametric Bayesian model is relaxed via a distortion of its likelihood. We analyze the properties of NPP models when the target of inference is the true data distribution or some functional of it, such as in causal inference. We show that NPP models can offer the robustness of nonparametric models while retaining the data efficiency of parametric models, achieving fast convergence when the parametric model is close to true. To efficiently analyze data with an NPP model, we develop a generalized Bayes procedure to approximate its posterior. We demonstrate our method by estimating causal effects of gene expression from single cell RNA sequencing data. NPP modeling offers an efficient approach to robust Bayesian inference and can be used to robustify any parametric Bayesian model.

Recent techniques in deep generative modeling have leveraged Markov generative processes to learn complex, high-dimensional probability distributions in a more structured and flexible manner [17]. By integrating Markov chain methods with deep neural architectures, these approaches aim to exploit the representational power of deep networks while maintaining a tractable and theoretically grounded training procedure. In contrast to early generative models that relied heavily on direct maximum likelihood estimation or adversarial objectives, this class of methods employs iterative stochastic transformations--often expressed as Markovian updates--to gradually refine initial noise samples into samples drawn from the desired target distribution. Diffusion and flow matching models represent two prominent classes of generative approaches that construct data samples through a sequence of continuous transformations. Diffusion models [6, 13] introduce a forward-noising and reverse-denoising process, progressively refining a simple noise distribution into a complex target distribution by learning to undo incremental noise corruption at each step.

In this paper, we study learning and knowledge acquisition (LKA) of an agent about a proposition that is either true or false. We use a Bayesian approach, where the agent receives data to update his beliefs about the proposition according to a posterior distribution. The LKA is formulated in terms of active information, with data representing external or exogenous information that modifies the agent's beliefs. It is assumed that data provide details about a number of features that are relevant to the proposition. We show that this leads to a Gibbs distribution posterior, which is in maximum entropy relative to the prior, conditioned on the side constraints that the data provide in terms of the features. We demonstrate that full learning is sometimes not possible and full knowledge acquisition is never possible when the number of extracted features is too small. We also distinguish between primary learning (receiving data about features of relevance for the proposition) and secondary learning (receiving data about the learning of another agent). We argue that this type of secondary learning does not represent true knowledge acquisition. Our results have implications for statistical learning algorithms, and we claim that such algorithms do not always generate true knowledge. The theory is illustrated with several examples.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) is a method that merges principles from Bayesian statistics and reinforcement learning to make optimal decisions in uncertain environments. Similar to other model-based RL approaches, it involves two key components: (1) Inferring the posterior distribution of the data generating process (DGP) modeling the true environment and (2) policy learning using the learned posterior. We propose to model the dynamics of the unknown environment through deep generative models assuming Markov dependence. In absence of likelihood functions for these models we train them by learning a generalized predictive-sequential (or prequential) scoring rule (SR) posterior. We use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers to draw samples from this generalized Bayesian posterior distribution. In conjunction, to achieve scalability in the high dimensional parameter space of the neural networks, we use the gradient based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) kernels within SMC. To justify the use of the prequential scoring rule posterior we prove a Bernstein-von Misses type theorem. For policy learning, we propose expected Thompson sampling (ETS) to learn the optimal policy by maximizing the expected value function with respect to the posterior distribution. This improves upon traditional Thompson sampling (TS) and its extensions which utilize only one sample drawn from the posterior distribution. This improvement is studied both theoretically and using simulation studies assuming discrete action and state-space. Finally we successfully extend our setup for a challenging problem with continuous action space without theoretical guarantees.

In this work, we study the problem of aggregation in the context of Bayesian Federated Learning (BFL). Using an information geometric perspective, we interpret the BFL aggregation step as finding the barycenter of the trained posteriors for a pre-specified divergence metric. We study the barycenter problem for the parametric family of $\alpha$-divergences and, focusing on the standard case of independent and Gaussian distributed parameters, we recover the closed-form solution of the reverse Kullback-Leibler barycenter and develop the analytical form of the squared Wasserstein-2 barycenter. Considering a non-IID setup, where clients possess heterogeneous data, we analyze the performance of the developed algorithms against state-of-the-art (SOTA) Bayesian aggregation methods in terms of accuracy, uncertainty quantification (UQ), model calibration (MC), and fairness. Finally, we extend our analysis to the framework of Hybrid Bayesian Deep Learning (HBDL), where we study how the number of Bayesian layers in the architecture impacts the considered performance metrics. Our experimental results show that the proposed methodology presents comparable performance with the SOTA while offering a geometric interpretation of the aggregation phase.

Gyrochronology is a technique for constraining stellar ages using rotation periods, which change over a star's main sequence lifetime due to magnetic braking. This technique shows promise for main sequence FGKM stars, where other methods are imprecise. However, models have historically struggled to capture the observed rotational dispersion in stellar populations. To properly understand this complexity, we have assembled the largest standardized data catalog of rotators in open clusters to date, consisting of ~7,400 stars across 30 open clusters/associations spanning ages of 1.5 Myr to 4 Gyr. We have also developed ChronoFlow: a flexible data-driven model which accurately captures observed rotational dispersion. We show that ChronoFlow can be used to accurately forward model rotational evolution, and to infer both cluster and individual stellar ages. We recover cluster ages with a statistical uncertainty of 0.06 dex ($\approx$ 15%), and individual stellar ages with a statistical uncertainty of 0.7 dex. Additionally, we conducted robust systematic tests to analyze the impact of extinction models, cluster membership, and calibration ages on our model's performance. These contribute an additional $\approx$ 0.06 dex of uncertainty in cluster age estimates, resulting in a total error budget of 0.08 dex. We estimate ages for the NGC 6709 open cluster and the Theia 456 stellar stream, and calculate revised rotational ages for M34, NGC 2516, NGC 1750, and NGC 1647. Our results show that ChronoFlow can precisely estimate the ages of coeval stellar populations, and constrain ages for individual stars. Furthermore, its predictions may be used to inform physical spin down models. ChronoFlow will be publicly available at https://github.com/philvanlane/chronoflow.

Contact-rich manipulation plays a vital role in daily human activities, yet uncertain physical parameters pose significant challenges for both model-based and model-free planning and control. A promising approach to address this challenge is to develop policies robust to a wide range of parameters. Domain adaptation and domain randomization are commonly used to achieve such policies but often compromise generalization to new instances or perform conservatively due to neglecting instance-specific information. \textit{Explicit motor adaptation} addresses these issues by estimating system parameters online and then retrieving the parameter-conditioned policy from a parameter-augmented base policy. However, it typically relies on precise system identification or additional high-quality policy retraining, presenting substantial challenges for contact-rich tasks with diverse physical parameters. In this work, we propose \textit{implicit motor adaptation}, which leverages tensor factorization as an implicit representation of the base policy. Given a roughly estimated parameter distribution, the parameter-conditioned policy can be efficiently derived by exploiting the separable structure of tensor cores from the base policy. This framework eliminates the need for precise system estimation and policy retraining while preserving optimal behavior and strong generalization. We provide a theoretical analysis validating this method, supported by numerical evaluations on three contact-rich manipulation primitives. Both simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate its ability to generate robust policies for diverse instances.

Proteins are dynamic, adopting ensembles of conformations. The nature of this conformational heterogenity is imprinted in the raw electron density measurements obtained from X-ray crystallography experiments. Fitting an ensemble of protein structures to these measurements is a challenging, ill-posed inverse problem.

Existing research on AI-based traffic management systems, utilizing techniques such as fuzzy logic, reinforcement learning, deep neural networks, and evolutionary algorithms, demonstrates the potential of AI to transform the traffic landscape. This article endeavors to review the topics where AI and traffic management intersect. It comprises areas like AI-powered traffic signal control systems, automatic distance and velocity recognition (for instance, in autonomous vehicles, hereafter AVs), smart parking systems, and Intelligent Traffic Management Systems (ITMS), which use data captured in real-time to keep track of traffic conditions, and traffic-related law enforcement and surveillance using AI. AI applications in traffic management cover a wide range of spheres. The spheres comprise, inter alia, streamlining traffic signal timings, predicting traffic bottlenecks in specific areas, detecting potential accidents and road hazards, managing incidents accurately, advancing public transportation systems, development of innovative driver assistance systems, and minimizing environmental impact through simplified routes and reduced emissions. The benefits of AI in traffic management are also diverse. They comprise improved management of traffic data, sounder route decision automation, easier and speedier identification and resolution of vehicular issues through monitoring the condition of individual vehicles, decreased traffic snarls and mishaps, superior resource utilization, alleviated stress of traffic management manpower, greater on-road safety, and better emergency response time.

Generative networks are an exciting tool for fast LHC event generation. Usually, they are used to generate configurations with a fixed number of particles. Autoregressive transformers allow us to generate events with variable numbers of particles, very much in line with the physics of QCD jet radiation. We show how they can learn a factorized likelihood for jet radiation and extrapolate in terms of the number of generated jets. For this extrapolation, bootstrapping training data and training with modifications of the likelihood loss can be used.