Modeling the associations between real world entities from their multivariate cross-sectional profiles can provide cues into the concerted working of these entities as a system. Several techniques have been proposed for deciphering these associations including constraint-based Bayesian structure learning (BSL) algorithms that model them as directed acyclic graphs. Benchmarking these algorithms have typically focused on assessing the variation in performance measures such as sensitivity as a function of the dimensionality represented by the number of nodes in the DAG, and sample size. The present study elucidates the importance of network topology in benchmarking exercises. More specifically, it investigates variations in sensitivity across distinct network topologies while constraining the nodes, edges, and sample-size to be identical, eliminating these as potential confounders. Sensitivity of three popular constraint-based BSL algorithms (Peter-Clarke, Grow-Shrink, Incremental Association Markov Blanket) in learning the network structure from multivariate cross-sectional profiles sampled from network models with sub-linear, linear, and super-linear DAG topologies generated using preferential attachment is investigated. Results across linear and nonlinear models revealed statistically significant $(\alpha=0.05)$ decrease in sensitivity estimates from sub-linear to super-linear topology constitutively across the three algorithms. These results are demonstrated on networks with nodes $(N_{nods}=48,64)$, noise strengths $(\sigma =3,6)$ and sample size $(N = 2^{10})$. The findings elucidate the importance of accommodating the network topology in constraint-based BSL benchmarking exercises.

In this work, we present a probabilistic model for directed graphs where nodes have attributes and labels. This model serves as a generative classifier capable of predicting the labels of unseen nodes using either maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimations. The predictions made by this model are highly interpretable, contrasting with some common methods for node classification, such as graph neural networks. We applied the model to two datasets, demonstrating predictive performance that is competitive with, and even superior to, state-of-the-art methods. One of the datasets considered is adapted from the Math Genealogy Project, which has not previously been utilized for this purpose. Consequently, we evaluated several classification algorithms on this dataset to compare the performance of our model and provide benchmarks for this new resource.

Bayesian optimisation is an adaptive sampling strategy for constructing a Gaussian process surrogate to emulate a black-box computational model with the aim of efficiently searching for the global minimum. However, Gaussian processes have limited applicability for engineering problems with many design variables. Their scalability can be significantly improved by identifying a low-dimensional vector of latent variables that serve as inputs to the Gaussian process. In this paper, we introduce a multi-view learning strategy that considers both the input design variables and output data representing the objective or constraint functions, to identify a low-dimensional space of latent variables. Adopting a fully probabilistic viewpoint, we use probabilistic partial least squares (PPLS) to learn an orthogonal mapping from the design variables to the latent variables using training data consisting of inputs and outputs of the black-box computational model. The latent variables and posterior probability densities of the probabilistic partial least squares and Gaussian process models are determined sequentially and iteratively, with retraining occurring at each adaptive sampling iteration. We compare the proposed probabilistic partial least squares Bayesian optimisation (PPLS-BO) strategy to its deterministic counterpart, partial least squares Bayesian optimisation (PLS-BO), and classical Bayesian optimisation, demonstrating significant improvements in convergence to the global minimum.

Causal inference in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates presents significant challenges. We introduce CausalBGM, an AI-powered Bayesian generative modeling approach that captures the causal relationship among covariates, treatment, and outcome variables. The core innovation of CausalBGM lies in its ability to estimate the individual treatment effect (ITE) by learning individual-specific distributions of a low-dimensional latent feature set (e.g., latent confounders) that drives changes in both treatment and outcome. This approach not only effectively mitigates confounding effects but also provides comprehensive uncertainty quantification, offering reliable and interpretable causal effect estimates at the individual level. CausalBGM adopts a Bayesian model and uses a novel iterative algorithm to update the model parameters and the posterior distribution of latent features until convergence. This framework leverages the power of AI to capture complex dependencies among variables while adhering to the Bayesian principles. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalBGM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly in scenarios with high-dimensional covariates and large-scale datasets. Its Bayesian foundation ensures statistical rigor, providing robust and well-calibrated posterior intervals. By addressing key limitations of existing methods, CausalBGM emerges as a robust and promising framework for advancing causal inference in modern applications in fields such as genomics, healthcare, and social sciences. CausalBGM is maintained at the website https://causalbgm.readthedocs.io/.

Sequential decision problems are widely studied across many areas of science. A key challenge when learning policies from historical data - a practice commonly referred to as off-policy learning - is how to ``identify'' the impact of a policy of interest when the observed data are not randomized. Off-policy learning has mainly been studied in two settings: dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs), where the focus is on controlling confounding in medical problems with short decision horizons, and offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the focus is on dimension reduction in closed systems such as games. The gap between these two well studied settings has limited the wider application of off-policy learning to many real-world problems. Using the theory for causal inference based on acyclic directed mixed graph (ADMGs), we provide a set of graphical identification criteria in general decision processes that encompass both DTRs and MDPs. We discuss how our results relate to the often implicit causal assumptions made in the DTR and RL literatures and further clarify several common misconceptions. Finally, we present a realistic simulation study for the dynamic pricing problem encountered in container logistics, and demonstrate how violations of our graphical criteria can lead to suboptimal policies.

This paper develops a smooth model identification and self-learning strategy for dynamic systems taking into account possible parameter variations and uncertainties. We have tried to solve the problem such that the model follows the changes and variations in the system on a continuous and smooth surface. Running the model to adaptively gain the optimum values of the parameters on a smooth surface would facilitate further improvements in the application of other derivative based optimization control algorithms such as MPC or robust control algorithms to achieve a combined modeling-control scheme. Compared to the earlier works on the smooth fuzzy modeling structures, we could reach a desired trade-off between the model optimality and the computational load. The proposed method has been evaluated on a test problem as well as the non-linear dynamic of a chemical process.

An adaptive multiexpert mixture of feedback causal models can approximate missing or phantom nodes in large-scale causal models. The result gives a scalable form of \emph{big knowledge}. The mixed model approximates a sampled dynamical system by approximating its main limit-cycle equilibria. Each expert first draws a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) with at least one missing causal node or variable. FCMs are directed signed partial-causality cyclic graphs. They mix naturally through convex combination to produce a new causal feedback FCM. Supervised learning helps each expert FCM estimate its phantom node by comparing the FCM's partial equilibrium with the complete multi-node equilibrium. Such phantom-node estimation allows partial control over these causal hallucinations and helps approximate the future trajectory of the dynamical system. But the approximation can be computationally heavy. Mixing the tuned expert FCMs gives a practical way to find several phantom nodes and thereby better approximate the feedback system's true equilibrium behavior.

Text Classification (TC) stands as a cornerstone within the realm of Natural Language Processing (NLP), particularly when viewed through the lens of computer science and engineering. The past decade has seen deep learning revolutionize TC, propelling advancements in text retrieval, categorization, information extraction, and summarization. The scholarly literature is rich with datasets, models, and evaluation criteria, with English being the predominant language of focus, despite studies involving Arabic, Chinese, Hindi, and others. The efficacy of TC models relies heavily on their ability to capture intricate textual relationships and nonlinear correlations, necessitating a comprehensive examination of the entire TC pipeline. This monograph provides an in-depth exploration of the TC pipeline, with a particular emphasis on evaluating the impact of each component on the overall performance of TC models. The pipeline includes state-of-the-art datasets, text preprocessing techniques, text representation methods, classification models, evaluation metrics, current results and future trends. Each chapter meticulously examines these stages, presenting technical innovations and significant recent findings. The work critically assesses various classification strategies, offering comparative analyses, examples, case studies, and experimental evaluations. These contributions extend beyond a typical survey, providing a detailed and insightful exploration of TC.

We introduce new \emph{soft diamond} regularizers that both improve synaptic sparsity and maintain classification accuracy in deep neural networks. These parametrized regularizers outperform the state-of-the-art hard-diamond Laplacian regularizer of Lasso regression and classification. They use thick-tailed symmetric alpha-stable ($\mathcal{S \alpha S}$) bell-curve synaptic weight priors that are not Gaussian and so have thicker tails. The geometry of the diamond-shaped constraint set varies from a circle to a star depending on the tail thickness and dispersion of the prior probability density function. Training directly with these priors is computationally intensive because almost all $\mathcal{S \alpha S}$ probability densities lack a closed form. A precomputed look-up table removed this computational bottleneck. We tested the new soft diamond regularizers with deep neural classifiers on the three datasets CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and Caltech-256. The regularizers improved the accuracy of the classifiers. The improvements included $4.57\%$ on CIFAR-10, $4.27\%$ on CIFAR-100, and $6.69\%$ on Caltech-256. They also outperformed $L_2$ regularizers on all the test cases. Soft diamond regularizers also outperformed $L_1$ lasso or Laplace regularizers because they better increased sparsity while improving classification accuracy. Soft-diamond priors substantially improved accuracy on CIFAR-10 when combined with dropout, batch, or data-augmentation regularization.

The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the aleatoric-epistemic view being insufficiently expressive to capture all of the distinct quantities that researchers are interested in. To explain and address this we derive a simple delineation of different model-based uncertainties and the data-generating processes associated with training and evaluation. Using this in place of the aleatoric-epistemic view could produce clearer discourse as the field moves forward.