Gaussian process (GP) bandits provide a powerful framework for solving blackbox optimization of unknown functions. The characteristics of the unknown function depends heavily on the assumed GP prior. Most work in the literature assume that this prior is known but in practice this seldom holds. Instead, practitioners often rely on maximum likelihood estimation to select the hyperparameters of the prior - which lacks theoretical guarantees. In this work, we propose two algorithms for joint prior selection and regret minimization in GP bandits based on GP Thompson sampling (GP-TS): Prior-Elimination GP-TS (PE-GP-TS) and HyperPrior GP-TS (HP-GP-TS). We theoretically analyze the algorithms and establish upper bounds for their respective regret. In addition, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms compared to the alternatives through experiments with synthetic and real-world data.

Learning control policies for real-world robotic tasks often involve challenges such as multimodality, local discontinuities, and the need for computational efficiency. These challenges arise from the complexity of robotic environments, where multiple solutions may coexist. To address these issues, we propose Composite Gaussian Processes Flows (CGP-Flows), a novel semi-parametric model for robotic policy. CGP-Flows integrate Overlapping Mixtures of Gaussian Processes (OMGPs) with the Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), enabling them to model complex policies addressing multimodality and local discontinuities. This hybrid approach retains the computational efficiency of OMGPs while incorporating the flexibility of CNFs. Experiments conducted in both simulated and real-world robotic tasks demonstrate that CGP-flows significantly improve performance in modeling control policies. In a simulation task, we confirmed that CGP-Flows had a higher success rate compared to the baseline method, and the success rate of GCP-Flow was significantly different from the success rate of other baselines in chi-square tests.

This article presents MCTS-BN, an adaptation of the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm for the structural learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs). Initially designed for game tree exploration, MCTS has been repurposed to address the challenge of learning BN structures by exploring the search space of potential ancestral orders in Bayesian Networks. Then, it employs Hill Climbing (HC) to derive a Bayesian Network structure from each order. In large BNs, where the search space for variable orders becomes vast, using completely random orders during the rollout phase is often unreliable and impractical. We adopt a semi-randomized approach to address this challenge by incorporating variable orders obtained from other heuristic search algorithms such as Greedy Equivalent Search (GES), PC, or HC itself. This hybrid strategy mitigates the computational burden and enhances the reliability of the rollout process. Experimental evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of MCTS-BN in improving BNs generated by traditional structural learning algorithms, exhibiting robust performance even when base algorithm orders are suboptimal and surpassing the gold standard when provided with favorable orders.

Abstract symbolic writing systems are semiotic codes that are ubiquitous in modern society but are otherwise absent in the animal kingdom. Anthropological evidence suggests that the earliest forms of some writing systems originally consisted of iconic pictographs, which signify their referent via visual resemblance. While previous studies have examined the emergence and, separately, the evolution of pictographic writing systems through a computational lens, most employ non-naturalistic methodologies that make it difficult to draw clear analogies to human and animal cognition. We develop a multi-agent reinforcement learning testbed for emergent communication called a Signification Game, and formulate a model of inferential communication that enables agents to leverage visual theory of mind to communicate actions using pictographs. Our model, which is situated within a broader formalism for animal communication, sheds light on the cognitive and cultural processes that led to the development of early writing systems.

Domain randomization in reinforcement learning is an established technique for increasing the robustness of control policies trained in simulation. By randomizing environment properties during training, the learned policy can become robust to uncertainties along the randomized dimensions. While the environment distribution is typically specified by hand, in this paper we investigate automatically discovering a sampling distribution via entropy-regularized reward maximization of a normalizing-flow-based neural sampling distribution. We show that this architecture is more flexible and provides greater robustness than existing approaches that learn simpler, parameterized sampling distributions, as demonstrated in six simulated and one real-world robotics domain. Lastly, we explore how these learned sampling distributions, combined with a privileged value function, can be used for out-of-distribution detection in an uncertainty-aware multi-step manipulation planner.

What computational structures emerge in transformers trained on next-token prediction? In this work, we provide evidence that transformers implement constrained Bayesian belief updating -- a parallelized version of partial Bayesian inference shaped by architectural constraints. To do this, we integrate the model-agnostic theory of optimal prediction with mechanistic interpretability to analyze transformers trained on a tractable family of hidden Markov models that generate rich geometric patterns in neural activations. We find that attention heads carry out an algorithm with a natural interpretation in the probability simplex, and create representations with distinctive geometric structure. We show how both the algorithmic behavior and the underlying geometry of these representations can be theoretically predicted in detail -- including the attention pattern, OV-vectors, and embedding vectors -- by modifying the equations for optimal future token predictions to account for the architectural constraints of attention. Our approach provides a principled lens on how gradient descent resolves the tension between optimal prediction and architectural design.

In this manuscript, we study the learning of deep attention neural networks, defined as the composition of multiple self-attention layers, with tied and low-rank weights. We first establish a mapping of such models to sequence multi-index models, a generalization of the widely studied multi-index model to sequential covariates, for which we establish a number of general results. In the context of Bayesian-optimal learning, in the limit of large dimension $D$ and commensurably large number of samples $N$, we derive a sharp asymptotic characterization of the optimal performance as well as the performance of the best-known polynomial-time algorithm for this setting --namely approximate message-passing--, and characterize sharp thresholds on the minimal sample complexity required for better-than-random prediction performance. Our analysis uncovers, in particular, how the different layers are learned sequentially. Finally, we discuss how this sequential learning can also be observed in a realistic setup.

Graph representation learning has emerged as a cornerstone for tasks like node classification and link prediction, yet prevailing self-supervised learning (SSL) methods face challenges such as computational inefficiency, reliance on contrastive objectives, and representation collapse. Existing approaches often depend on feature reconstruction, negative sampling, or complex decoders, which introduce training overhead and hinder generalization. Further, current techniques which address such limitations fail to account for the contribution of node embeddings to a certain prediction in the absence of labeled nodes. To address these limitations, we propose a novel joint embedding predictive framework for graph SSL that eliminates contrastive objectives and negative sampling while preserving semantic and structural information. Additionally, we introduce a semantic-aware objective term that incorporates pseudo-labels derived from Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), enhancing node discriminability by evaluating latent feature contributions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework outperforms state-of-the-art graph SSL methods across benchmarks, achieving superior performance without contrastive loss or complex decoders. Key innovations include (1) a non-contrastive, view-invariant joint embedding predictive architecture, (2) Leveraging single context and multiple targets relationship between subgraphs, and (3) GMM-based pseudo-label scoring to capture semantic contributions. This work advances graph SSL by offering a computationally efficient, collapse-resistant paradigm that bridges spatial and semantic graph features for downstream tasks. The code for our paper can be found at https://github.com/Deceptrax123/JPEB-GSSL

Large language models (LLMs) can exhibit undesirable and unexpected behavior in the blink of an eye. In a recent Anthropic demo, Claude switched from coding to Googling pictures of Yellowstone, and these sudden shifts in behavior have also been observed in reasoning patterns and jailbreaks. This phenomenon is not unique to autoregressive models: in diffusion models, key features of the final output are decided in narrow ``critical windows'' of the generation process. In this work we develop a simple, unifying theory to explain this phenomenon. We show that it emerges generically as the generation process localizes to a sub-population of the distribution it models. While critical windows have been studied at length in diffusion models, existing theory heavily relies on strong distributional assumptions and the particulars of Gaussian diffusion. In contrast to existing work our theory (1) applies to autoregressive and diffusion models; (2) makes no distributional assumptions; (3) quantitatively improves previous bounds even when specialized to diffusions; and (4) requires basic tools and no stochastic calculus or statistical physics-based machinery. We also identify an intriguing connection to the all-or-nothing phenomenon from statistical inference. Finally, we validate our predictions empirically for LLMs and find that critical windows often coincide with failures in problem solving for various math and reasoning benchmarks.

We introduce FedGVI, a probabilistic Federated Learning (FL) framework that is provably robust to both prior and likelihood misspecification. FedGVI addresses limitations in both frequentist and Bayesian FL by providing unbiased predictions under model misspecification, with calibrated uncertainty quantification. Our approach generalises previous FL approaches, specifically Partitioned Variational Inference (Ashman et al., 2022), by allowing robust and conjugate updates, decreasing computational complexity at the clients. We offer theoretical analysis in terms of fixed-point convergence, optimality of the cavity distribution, and provable robustness. Additionally, we empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of FedGVI in terms of improved robustness and predictive performance on multiple synthetic and real world classification data sets.