We address the challenge of minimizing true risk in multi-node distributed learning. These systems are frequently exposed to both inter-node and intra-node label shifts, which present a critical obstacle to effectively optimizing model performance while ensuring that data remains confined to each node. To tackle this, we propose the Versatile Robust Label Shift (VRLS) method, which enhances the maximum likelihood estimation of the test-to-train label density ratio. VRLS incorporates Shannon entropy-based regularization and adjusts the density ratio during training to better handle label shifts at the test time. In multi-node learning environments, VRLS further extends its capabilities by learning and adapting density ratios across nodes, effectively mitigating label shifts and improving overall model performance. Experiments conducted on MNIST, Fashion MNIST, and CIFAR-10 demonstrate the effectiveness of VRLS, outperforming baselines by up to 20% in imbalanced settings. These results highlight the significant improvements VRLS offers in addressing label shifts. Our theoretical analysis further supports this by establishing high-probability bounds on estimation errors.

Flow matching has shown state-of-the-art performance in various generative tasks, ranging from image generation to decision-making, where guided generation is pivotal. However, the guidance of flow matching is more general than and thus substantially different from that of its predecessor, diffusion models. Therefore, the challenge in guidance for general flow matching remains largely underexplored. In this paper, we propose the first framework of general guidance for flow matching. From this framework, we derive a family of guidance techniques that can be applied to general flow matching. These include a new training-free asymptotically exact guidance, novel training losses for training-based guidance, and two classes of approximate guidance that cover classical gradient guidance methods as special cases. We theoretically investigate these different methods to give a practical guideline for choosing suitable methods in different scenarios. Experiments on synthetic datasets, image inverse problems, and offline reinforcement learning demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed guidance methods and verify the correctness of our flow matching guidance framework. Code to reproduce the experiments can be found at https://github.com/AI4Science-WestlakeU/flow_guidance.

In many practical applications, regression models are employed to uncover relationships between predictors and a response variable, yet the common assumption of constant error variance is frequently violated. This issue is further compounded in high-dimensional settings where the number of predictors exceeds the sample size, necessitating regularization for effective estimation and variable selection. To address this problem, we propose the Heteroscedastic Double Bayesian Elastic Net (HDBEN), a novel framework that jointly models the mean and log-variance using hierarchical Bayesian priors incorporating both $\ell_1$ and $\ell_2$ penalties. Our approach simultaneously induces sparsity and grouping in the regression coefficients and variance parameters, capturing complex variance structures in the data. Theoretical results demonstrate that proposed HDBEN achieves posterior concentration, variable selection consistency, and asymptotic normality under mild conditions which justifying its behavior. Simulation studies further illustrate that HDBEN outperforms existing methods, particularly in scenarios characterized by heteroscedasticity and high dimensionality.

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian multitask learning model that is applicable to the general multi-task binary classification learning problem where the model assumes a shared sparsity structure across different tasks. We derive a computationally efficient inference algorithm based on variational inference to approximate the posterior distribution. We demonstrate the potential of the new approach on various synthetic datasets and for predicting human health status based on microbiome profile. Our analysis incorporates data pooled from multiple microbiome studies, along with a comprehensive comparison with other benchmark methods. Results in synthetic datasets show that the proposed approach has superior support recovery property when the underlying regression coefficients share a common sparsity structure across different tasks. Our experiments on microbiome classification demonstrate the utility of the method in extracting informative taxa while providing well-calibrated predictions with uncertainty quantification and achieving competitive performance in terms of prediction metrics. Notably, despite the heterogeneity of the pooled datasets (e.g., different experimental objectives, laboratory setups, sequencing equipment, patient demographics), our method delivers robust results.

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) enables valid statistical inference by combining experimental data with machine learning predictions. When a sufficient number of high-quality predictions is available, PPI results in more accurate estimates and tighter confidence intervals than traditional methods. In this paper, we propose to inform the PPI framework with prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions. The resulting method, which we call frequentist, assisted by Bayes, PPI (FAB-PPI), improves over PPI when the observed prediction quality is likely under the prior, while maintaining its frequentist guarantees. Furthermore, when using heavy-tailed priors, FAB-PPI adaptively reverts to standard PPI in low prior probability regions. We demonstrate the benefits of FAB-PPI in real and synthetic examples.

In the estimation of causal effects, one common method for removing the influence of confounders is to adjust the variables that satisfy the back-door criterion. However, it is not always possible to uniquely determine sets of such variables. Moreover, real-world data is almost always limited, which means it may be insufficient for statistical estimation. Therefore, we propose criteria for selecting variables from a list of candidate adjustment variables along with an algorithm to prevent accuracy degradation in causal effect estimation. We initially focus on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and then outlines specific steps for applying this method to completed partially directed acyclic graphs (CPDAGs). We also present and prove a theorem on causal effect computation possibility in CPDAGs. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of our method using both existing and artificial data.

The contextual multi-armed bandit (MAB) is a widely used framework for problems requiring sequential decision-making under uncertainty, such as recommendation systems. In applications involving a large number of users, the performance of contextual MAB can be significantly improved by facilitating collaboration among multiple users. This has been achieved by the clustering of bandits (CB) methods, which adaptively group the users into different clusters and achieve collaboration by allowing the users in the same cluster to share data. However, classical CB algorithms typically rely on numerical reward feedback, which may not be practical in certain real-world applications. For instance, in recommendation systems, it is more realistic and reliable to solicit preference feedback between pairs of recommended items rather than absolute rewards. To address this limitation, we introduce the first "clustering of dueling bandit algorithms" to enable collaborative decision-making based on preference feedback. We propose two novel algorithms: (1) Clustering of Linear Dueling Bandits (COLDB) which models the user reward functions as linear functions of the context vectors, and (2) Clustering of Neural Dueling Bandits (CONDB) which uses a neural network to model complex, non-linear user reward functions. Both algorithms are supported by rigorous theoretical analyses, demonstrating that user collaboration leads to improved regret bounds. Extensive empirical evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets further validate the effectiveness of our methods, establishing their potential in real-world applications involving multiple users with preference-based feedback.

Subspace inference for neural networks assumes that a subspace of their parameter space suffices to produce a reliable uncertainty quantification. In this work, we mathematically derive the optimal subspace model to a Bayesian inference scenario based on the Laplace approximation. We demonstrate empirically that, in the optimal case, often a fraction of parameters less than 1% is sufficient to obtain a reliable estimate of the full Laplace approximation. Since the optimal solution is derived, we can evaluate all other subspace models against a baseline. In addition, we give an approximation of our method that is applicable to larger problem settings, in which the optimal solution is not computable, and compare it to existing subspace models from the literature. In general, our approximation scheme outperforms previous work. Furthermore, we present a metric to qualitatively compare different subspace models even if the exact Laplace approximation is unknown.

State-space formulations allow for Gaussian process (GP) regression with linear-in-time computational cost in spatio-temporal settings, but performance typically suffers in the presence of outliers. In this paper, we adapt and specialise the robust and conjugate GP (RCGP) framework of Altamirano et al. (2024) to the spatio-temporal setting. In doing so, we obtain an outlier-robust spatio-temporal GP with a computational cost comparable to classical spatio-temporal GPs. We also overcome the three main drawbacks of RCGPs: their unreliable performance when the prior mean is chosen poorly, their lack of reliable uncertainty quantification, and the need to carefully select a hyperparameter by hand. We study our method extensively in finance and weather forecasting applications, demonstrating that it provides a reliable approach to spatio-temporal modelling in the presence of outliers.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.