We have derived a novel loss function from the Fokker-Planck equation that links dynamical system models with their probability density functions, demonstrating its utility in model identification and density estimation. In the first application, we show that this loss function can enable the extraction of dynamical parameters from non-temporal datasets, including timestamp-free measurements from steady non-equilibrium systems such as noisy Lorenz systems and gene regulatory networks. In the second application, when coupled with a density estimator, this loss facilitates density estimation when the dynamic equations are known. For density estimation, we propose a density estimator that integrates a Gaussian Mixture Model with a normalizing flow model. It simultaneously estimates normalized density, energy, and score functions from both empirical data and dynamics. It is compatible with a variety of data-based training methodologies, including maximum likelihood and score matching. It features a latent space akin to a modern Hopfield network, where the inherent Hopfield energy effectively assigns low densities to sparsely populated data regions, addressing common challenges in neural density estimators. Additionally, this Hopfield-like energy enables direct and rapid data manipulation through the Concave-Convex Procedure (CCCP) rule, facilitating tasks such as denoising and clustering. Our work demonstrates a principled framework for leveraging the complex interdependencies between dynamics and density estimation, as illustrated through synthetic examples that clarify the underlying theoretical intuitions.

Surface contamination on electrical grid insulators leads to an increase in leakage current until an electrical discharge occurs, which can result in a power system shutdown. To mitigate the possibility of disruptive faults resulting in a power outage, monitoring contamination and leakage current can help predict the progression of faults. Given this need, this paper proposes a hybrid deep learning (DL) model for predicting the increase in leakage current in high-voltage insulators. The hybrid structure considers a multi-criteria optimization using tree-structured Parzen estimation, an input stage filter for signal noise attenuation combined with a large language model (LLM) applied for time series forecasting. The proposed optimized LLM outperforms state-of-the-art DL models with a root-mean-square error equal to 2.24$\times10^{-4}$ for a short-term horizon and 1.21$\times10^{-3}$ for a medium-term horizon.

We study two G-modeling strategies for estimating the signal distribution (the empirical Bayesian's prior) from observations corrupted with normal noise. First, we choose the signal distribution by minimizing Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE) of the implied Eddington/Tweedie Bayes denoiser, an approach motivated by optimal empirical Bayesian shrinkage estimation of the signals. Second, we select the signal distribution by minimizing Hyv\"arinen's score matching objective for the implied score (derivative of log-marginal density), targeting minimal Fisher divergence between estimated and true marginal densities. While these strategies appear distinct, they are known to be mathematically equivalent. We provide a unified analysis of SURE and score matching under both well-specified signal distribution classes and misspecification. In the classical well-specified setting with homoscedastic noise and compactly supported signal distribution, we establish nearly parametric rates of convergence of the empirical Bayes regret and the Fisher divergence. In a commonly studied misspecified model, we establish fast rates of convergence to the oracle denoiser and corresponding oracle inequalities. Our empirical results demonstrate competitiveness with nonparametric maximum likelihood in well-specified settings, while showing superior performance under misspecification, particularly in settings involving heteroscedasticity and side information.

Bayesian computation has achieved profound success in many modeling tasks with statistics tools such as generalized linear models (Dobson and Barnett, 2018; Nelder and Wedderburn, 1972). Yet these traditional tools fail to produce satisfactory predictions for high-dimensional and highly complex data such as images, speech and videos. Deep Learning (LeCun et al., 2015a) provides an attractive solution. At the time of late 2023, deep neural networks achieve accurate predictions for image classification (Dehghani et al., 2023), segmentation (Kirillov et al., 2023) and speech recognition tasks (Zhang et al., 2023). Meanwhile they have also demonstrated an astonishing capability for generating photo-realistic and/or artistic images (Rombach et al., 2022), music (Agostinelli et al., 2023) and videos (Liang et al., 2022). Nowadays deep neural networks have become a standard modeling tool for many of the applications in AI and related fields, and the success of deep learning so far are based on training deterministic deep neural networks on big data. So one might ask: is there a place for Bayesian computation in modern deep learning?

This paper introduce the Python package Sparklen (see Lacoste (2025)), which implements a complete set of statistical learning methods for exponential Hawkes processes with an emphasize on high-dimension setting. Hawkes processes, introduced in Hawkes (1971), form a specific but rather versatile class of point processes. Such processes model time series in which the occurrence of one event temporarily increases the probability of other events occurring. This intrinsic ability to take into account self-exciting effects makes them particularly interesting for real data modeling. Historically applied in seismology (see Ogata (1988)), they have since been used in a wide variety of other fields, including neuroscience in Reynaud-Bouret, Rivoirard, and Tuleau-Malot (2013), finance in Bacry, Mastromatteo, and Muzy (2015), ecology in Denis, Dion-Blanc, Lacoste, Sansonnet, and Bas (2024). The multidimensional version, known as the Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHP), captures additionally interactions among each univariate process within a network. This generalization enables the modeling of more intricate dynamics, significantly expanding the range of potential applications. For example, MHP has been applied to model action potentials within neural networks in Bonnet, Dion-Blanc, Gindraud, and Lemler (2022), or for trend detection in social networks in Pinto, Chahed, and Altman (2015).

This work studies the planning problem for robotic systems under both quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainty. The objective is to enable the robotic systems to optimally fulfill high-level tasks specified by Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formulas. To capture both types of uncertainty in a unified modelling framework, we utilise Markov Decision Processes with Set-valued Transitions (MDPSTs). We introduce a novel solution technique for the optimal robust strategy synthesis of MDPSTs with LTL specifications. To improve efficiency, our work leverages limit-deterministic B\"uchi automata (LDBAs) as the automaton representation for LTL to take advantage of their efficient constructions. To tackle the inherent nondeterminism in MDPSTs, which presents a significant challenge for reducing the LTL planning problem to a reachability problem, we introduce the concept of a Winning Region (WR) for MDPSTs. Additionally, we propose an algorithm for computing the WR over the product of the MDPST and the LDBA. Finally, a robust value iteration algorithm is invoked to solve the reachability problem. We validate the effectiveness of our approach through a case study involving a mobile robot operating in the hexagonal world, demonstrating promising efficiency gains.

Neural models for amortized probabilistic clustering yield samples of cluster labels given a set-structured input, while avoiding lengthy Markov chain runs and the need for explicit data likelihoods. Existing methods which label each data point sequentially, like the Neural Clustering Process, often lead to cluster assignments highly dependent on the data order. Alternatively, methods that sequentially create full clusters, do not provide assignment probabilities. In this paper, we introduce GFNCP, a novel framework for amortized clustering. GFNCP is formulated as a Generative Flow Network with a shared energy-based parametrization of policy and reward. We show that the flow matching conditions are equivalent to consistency of the clustering posterior under marginalization, which in turn implies order invariance. GFNCP also outperforms existing methods in clustering performance on both synthetic and real-world data.

In contrast to popular decision-making frameworks such as reinforcement learning, which are built upon appealing to decision-theoretic notions such as Maximum Expected Utility, we instead construct an agent by trying to minimise the expected number of bits needed to losslessly describe general agent-environment interactions. The appeal with this approach is that if we can construct a good universal coding scheme for arbitrary agent interactions, one could simply sample from this coding distribution to generate a control policy. However when considering general agents, whose goal is to work well across multiple environments, this question turns out to be surprisingly subtle. Naive approaches which do not discriminate between actions and observations fail, and are subject to the self-delusion problem [Ortega et al., 2021]. In this work, we will adopt a universal source coding perspective to this question, and showcase its efficacy by applying it to the challenging non-stationary stochastic bandit problem. In the passive case, namely, sequential prediction of observations under the logarithmic loss, there is a well developed universal source coding literature for dealing with non-stationary sources under various types of non-stationarity. The most influential idea for modelling piecewise stationary sources is the transition diagram technique of Willems [1996]. This technique performs Bayesian model averaging over all possible partitions of a sequence of data, cleverly exploiting dynamic programming to yield an algorithm which has both quadratic time complexity and provable regret guarantees.

We describe and analyze a broad class of mixture models for real-valued multivariate data in which the probability density of observations within each component of the model is represented as an arbitrary combination of basis functions. Fits to these models give us a way to cluster data with distributions of unknown form, including strongly non-Gaussian or multimodal distributions, and return both a division of the data and an estimate of the distributions, effectively performing clustering and density estimation within each cluster at the same time. We describe two fitting methods, one using an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm and the other a Bayesian non-parametric method using a collapsed Gibbs sampler. The former is numerically efficient, but gives only point estimates of the probability densities. The latter is more computationally demanding but returns a full Bayesian posterior and also an estimate of the number of components. We demonstrate our methods with a selection of illustrative applications and give code implementing both algorithms.

The goal of causal discovery is to learn a directed acyclic graph from data. One of the most well-known methods for this problem is Greedy Equivalence Search (GES). GES searches for the graph by incrementally and greedily adding or removing edges to maximize a model selection criterion. It has strong theoretical guarantees on infinite data but can fail in practice on finite data. In this paper, we first identify some of the causes of GES's failure, finding that it can get blocked in local optima, especially in denser graphs. We then propose eXtremely Greedy Equivalent Search (XGES), which involves a new heuristic to improve the search strategy of GES while retaining its theoretical guarantees. In particular, XGES favors deleting edges early in the search over inserting edges, which reduces the possibility of the search ending in local optima. A further contribution of this work is an efficient algorithmic formulation of XGES (and GES). We benchmark XGES on simulated datasets with known ground truth. We find that XGES consistently outperforms GES in recovering the correct graphs, and it is 10 times faster. XGES implementations in Python and C++ are available at https://github.com/ANazaret/XGES.