Uncertainty
Understanding Driver Cognition and Decision-Making Behaviors in High-Risk Scenarios: A Drift Diffusion Perspective
Huang, Heye, Li, Zheng, Cheng, Hao, Wang, Haoran, Jiang, Junkai, Li, Xiaopeng, Zgonnikov, Arkady
Ensuring safe interactions between autonomous vehicles (AVs) and human drivers in mixed traffic systems remains a major challenge, particularly in complex, high-risk scenarios. This paper presents a cognition-decision framework that integrates individual variability and commonalities in driver behavior to quantify risk cognition and model dynamic decision-making. First, a risk sensitivity model based on a multivariate Gaussian distribution is developed to characterize individual differences in risk cognition. Then, a cognitive decision-making model based on the drift diffusion model (DDM) is introduced to capture common decision-making mechanisms in highrisk environments. The DDM dynamically adjusts decision thresholds by integrating initial bias, drift rate, and boundary parameters, adapting to variations in speed, relative distance, and risk sensitivity to reflect diverse driving styles and risk preferences. By simulating high-risk scenarios with lateral, longitudinal, and multidimensional risk sources in a driving simulator, the proposed model accurately predicts cognitive responses and decision behaviors during emergency maneuvers. Specifically, by incorporating driver-specific risk sensitivity, the model enables dynamic adjustments of key DDM parameters, allowing for personalized decision-making representations in diverse scenarios. Comparative analysis with IDM, Gipps, and MOBIL demonstrates that DDM more precisely captures human cognitive processes and adaptive decision-making in high-risk scenarios. These findings provide a theoretical basis for modeling human driving behavior and offer critical insights for enhancing AV-human interaction in real-world traffic environments. Introduction Driving safety is directly influenced by drivers' risk cognition and collision avoidance decisionmaking abilities in high-risk scenarios. In real-world driving, risk cognition generally involves complex interactions among multiple co-existing risk factors rather than being limited to a single risk source (Crosato et al., 2024; Huang et al., 2022).
LATINO-PRO: LAtent consisTency INverse sOlver with PRompt Optimization
Spagnoletti, Alessio, Prost, Jean, Almansa, Andrรฉs, Papadakis, Nicolas, Pereyra, Marcelo
Text-to-image latent diffusion models (LDMs) have recently emerged as powerful generative models with great potential for solving inverse problems in imaging. However, leveraging such models in a Plug & Play (PnP), zero-shot manner remains challenging because it requires identifying a suitable text prompt for the unknown image of interest. Also, existing text-to-image PnP approaches are highly computationally expensive. We herein address these challenges by proposing a novel PnP inference paradigm specifically designed for embedding generative models within stochastic inverse solvers, with special attention to Latent Consistency Models (LCMs), which distill LDMs into fast generators. We leverage our framework to propose LAtent consisTency INverse sOlver (LATINO), the first zero-shot PnP framework to solve inverse problems with priors encoded by LCMs. Our conditioning mechanism avoids automatic differentiation and reaches SOTA quality in as little as 8 neural function evaluations. As a result, LATINO delivers remarkably accurate solutions and is significantly more memory and computationally efficient than previous approaches. We then embed LATINO within an empirical Bayesian framework that automatically calibrates the text prompt from the observed measurements by marginal maximum likelihood estimation. Extensive experiments show that prompt self-calibration greatly improves estimation, allowing LATINO with PRompt Optimization to define new SOTAs in image reconstruction quality and computational efficiency.
Fuzzy Rule-based Differentiable Representation Learning
Zhang, Wei, Deng, Zhaohong, Wang, Guanjin, Choi, Kup-Sze
Representation learning has emerged as a crucial focus in machine and deep learning, involving the extraction of meaningful and useful features and patterns from the input data, thereby enhancing the performance of various downstream tasks such as classification, clustering, and prediction. Current mainstream representation learning methods primarily rely on non-linear data mining techniques such as kernel methods and deep neural networks to extract abstract knowledge from complex datasets. However, most of these methods are black-box, lacking transparency and interpretability in the learning process, which constrains their practical utility. To this end, this paper introduces a novel representation learning method grounded in an interpretable fuzzy rule-based model. Specifically, it is built upon the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy system (TSK-FS) to initially map input data to a high-dimensional fuzzy feature space through the antecedent part of the TSK-FS. Subsequently, a novel differentiable optimization method is proposed for the consequence part learning which can preserve the model's interpretability and transparency while further exploring the nonlinear relationships within the data. This optimization method retains the essence of traditional optimization, with certain parts of the process parameterized corresponding differentiable modules constructed, and a deep optimization process implemented. Consequently, this method not only enhances the model's performance but also ensures its interpretability. Moreover, a second-order geometry preservation method is introduced to further improve the robustness of the proposed method. Extensive experiments conducted on various benchmark datasets validate the superiority of the proposed method, highlighting its potential for advancing representation learning methodologies.
Causal Feature Learning in the Social Sciences
Huang, Jingzhou, Lu, Jiuyao, Tolbert, Alexander Williams
Variable selection poses a significant challenge in causal modeling, particularly within the social sciences, where constructs often rely on inter-related factors such as age, socioeconomic status, gender, and race. Indeed, it has been argued that such attributes must be modeled as macro-level abstractions of lower-level manipulable features, in order to preserve the modularity assumption essential to causal inference. This paper accordingly extends the theoretical framework of Causal Feature Learning (CFL). Empirically, we apply the CFL algorithm to diverse social science datasets, evaluating how CFL-derived macrostates compare with traditional microstates in downstream modeling tasks.
Optimizing Product Provenance Verification using Data Valuation Methods
Yousuf, Raquib Bin, Just, Hoang Anh, Xu, Shengzhe, Mayer, Brian, Deklerck, Victor, Truszkowski, Jakub, Simeone, John C., Saunders, Jade, Lu, Chang-Tien, Jia, Ruoxi, Ramakrishnan, Naren
Determining and Determining and verifying product provenance remains a critical verifying product provenance is a challenge in global supply chains, challenge in global supply chains, particularly as geopolitical conflicts as geopolitics and the lure of "don't ask, don't tell" with respect to and shifting borders create new incentives for misrepresentation the ecological and social cost creates incentives for misrepresentation of commodities, such as hiding the origin of illegally harvested of commodities, such as hiding the origin of illegally harvested timber or agriculture grown on illegally cleared land. Stable Isotope timber or agriculture grown on illegally cleared land. Ratio Analysis (SIRA), combined with Gaussian process regressionbased Product identification and provenance verification of traded natural isoscapes, has emerged as a powerful tool for geographic resources have emerged as promising research areas, with origin verification. However, the effectiveness of these models is often various combinations of methods used based on the specific natural constrained by data scarcity and suboptimal dataset selection. In resource sector and the level of granularity of species identification this work, we introduce a novel data valuation framework designed and origin-provenance determination. For example, for wood and to enhance the selection and utilization of training data for machine forest products, determining species identification and geographic learning models applied in SIRA. By prioritizing high-informative harvest provenance requires utilizing multiple testing methods and samples, our approach improves model robustness and predictive tools [5, 8, 20].
A Logic of Uncertain Interpretation
We do not always know how to interpret the statements that we hear, the observations that we make, or the evidence that we gather. Traditional frameworks for reasoning about uncertainty and belief revision typically suppose that new information is presented definitively: there is no question about what was learned. The paradigm of Bayesian conditioning exemplifies this assumption: "evidence" takes the simple form of an event E, and belief revision proceeds by updating probabilities accordingly: ฯ ฯ( | E). In order to capture the kind of uncertainty about interpretation we wish to reason about, we change the fundamental representation of events so that the sets they correspond to are themselves variable--the "true meaning" of a statement thus becomes itself an object of uncertainty. This approach follows in the spirit of other recent work [1, 2], expanding on it along two key dimensions.
Flows on convex polytopes
Diederen, Tomek, Zamboni, Nicola
We present a framework for modeling complex, high-dimensional distributions on convex polytopes by leveraging recent advances in discrete and continuous normalizing flows on Riemannian manifolds. We show that any full-dimensional polytope is homeomorphic to a unit ball, and our approach harnesses flows defined on the ball, mapping them back to the original polytope. Furthermore, we introduce a strategy to construct flows when only the vertex representation of a polytope is available, employing maximum entropy barycentric coordinates and Aitchison geometry. Our experiments take inspiration from applications in metabolic flux analysis and demonstrate that our methods achieve competitive density estimation, sampling accuracy, as well as fast training and inference times.
Enhanced Sentiment Analysis of Iranian Restaurant Reviews Utilizing Sentiment Intensity Analyzer & Fuzzy Logic
Rokhva, Shayan, Teimourpour, Babak, Babaei, Romina
This research presents an advanced sentiment analysis framework studied on Iranian restaurant reviews, combining fuzzy logic with conventional sentiment analysis techniques to assess both sentiment polarity and intensity. A dataset of 1266 reviews, alongside corresponding star ratings, was compiled and preprocessed for analysis. Initial sentiment analysis was conducted using the Sentiment Intensity Analyzer (VADER), a rule-based tool that assigns sentiment scores across positive, negative, and neutral categories. However, a noticeable bias toward neutrality often led to an inaccurate representation of sentiment intensity. To mitigate this issue, based on a fuzzy perspective, two refinement techniques were introduced, applying square-root and fourth-root transformations to amplify positive and negative sentiment scores while maintaining neutrality. This led to three distinct methodologies: Approach 1, utilizing unaltered VADER scores; Approach 2, modifying sentiment values using the square root; and Approach 3, applying the fourth root for further refinement. A Fuzzy Inference System incorporating comprehensive fuzzy rules was then developed to process these refined scores and generate a single, continuous sentiment value for each review based on each approach. Comparative analysis, including human supervision and alignment with customer star ratings, revealed that the refined approaches significantly improved sentiment analysis by reducing neutrality bias and better capturing sentiment intensity. Despite these advancements, minor over-amplification and persistent neutrality in domain-specific cases were identified, leading us to propose several future studies to tackle these occasional barriers. The study's methodology and outcomes offer valuable insights for businesses seeking a more precise understanding of consumer sentiment, enhancing sentiment analysis across various industries.
Probabilistic Graph Circuits: Deep Generative Models for Tractable Probabilistic Inference over Graphs
Papeลพ, Milan, Rektoris, Martin, ล mรญdl, Vรกclav, Pevnรฝ, Tomรกลก
Deep generative models (DGMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable success in capturing complex probability distributions over graphs. Although their excellent performance is attributed to powerful and scalable deep neural networks, it is, at the same time, exactly the presence of these highly non-linear transformations that makes DGMs intractable. Indeed, despite representing probability distributions, intractable DGMs deny probabilistic foundations by their inability to answer even the most basic inference queries without approximations or design choices specific to a very narrow range of queries. To address this limitation, we propose probabilistic graph circuits (PGCs), a framework of tractable DGMs that provide exact and efficient probabilistic inference over (arbitrary parts of) graphs. Nonetheless, achieving both exactness and efficiency is challenging in the permutation-invariant setting of graphs. We design PGCs that are inherently invariant and satisfy these two requirements, yet at the cost of low expressive power. Therefore, we investigate two alternative strategies to achieve the invariance: the first sacrifices the efficiency, and the second sacrifices the exactness. We demonstrate that ignoring the permutation invariance can have severe consequences in anomaly detection, and that the latter approach is competitive with, and sometimes better than, existing intractable DGMs in the context of molecular graph generation.
Simulation-based Bayesian inference under model misspecification
Kelly, Ryan P., Warne, David J., Frazier, David T., Nott, David J., Gutmann, Michael U., Drovandi, Christopher
Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) methods are widely used for parameter estimation in complex models where evaluating the likelihood is challenging but generating simulations is relatively straightforward. However, these methods commonly assume that the simulation model accurately reflects the true data-generating process, an assumption that is frequently violated in realistic scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the challenges faced by SBI methods under model misspecification. We consolidate recent research aimed at mitigating the effects of misspecification, highlighting three key strategies: i) robust summary statistics, ii) generalised Bayesian inference, and iii) error modelling and adjustment parameters. To illustrate both the vulnerabilities of popular SBI methods and the effectiveness of misspecification-robust alternatives, we present empirical results on an illustrative example.