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 Uncertainty


Observational Learning with a Budget

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--We consider a model of Bayesian observational learning in which a sequence of agents receives a private signal about an underlying binary state of the world. Each agent makes a decision based on its own signal and its observations of previous agents. A central planner seeks to improve the accuracy of these signals by allocating a limited budget to enhance signal quality across agents. We formulate and analyze the budget allocation problem and propose two optimal allocation strategies. At least one of these strategies is shown to maximize the probability of achieving a correct information cascade. I NTRODUCTION Consider that an item, which could either be of a "good" or a "bad" quality, is up for sale in a market where agents arrive sequentially and decide whether to buy the item, with their choice serving as a recommendation for later agents. While the quality of the item is unknown to the agents, every agent has its own prior knowledge of the item's quality in the form of its private belief. Each agent then makes a payoff optimal decision based on its own prior knowledge and by observing the choices of its predecessors. Such models of "observational learning" were first studied by [1]-[3] under a Bayesian learning framework wherein each agent's prior knowledge is in the form of a privately observed signal about the pay-off-relevant state of the world, which in this case is the item's quality, and is generated from a commonly known probability distribution. A salient feature of such models is the emergence of information cascades or herding, i.e., at some point, it is optimal for an agent to ignore its own private signal and follow the actions of the past agents. Subsequent agents then follow suit due to their homogeneity.


NANO-SLAM : Natural Gradient Gaussian Approximation for Vehicle SLAM

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate localization is a challenging task for autonomous vehicles, particularly in GPS-denied environments such as urban canyons and tunnels. In these scenarios, simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) offers a more robust alternative to GPS-based positioning, enabling vehicles to determine their position using onboard sensors and surrounding environment's landmarks. Among various vehicle SLAM approaches, Rao-Blackwellized particle filter (RBPF) stands out as one of the most widely adopted methods due to its efficient solution with logarithmic complexity relative to the map size. RBPF approximates the posterior distribution of the vehicle pose using a set of Monte Carlo particles through two main steps: sampling and importance weighting. The key to effective sampling lies in solving a distribution that closely approximates the posterior, known as the sampling distribution, to accelerate convergence. Existing methods typically derive this distribution via linearization, which introduces significant approximation errors due to the inherent nonlinearity of the system. To address this limitation, we propose a novel vehicle SLAM method called \textit{N}atural Gr\textit{a}dient Gaussia\textit{n} Appr\textit{o}ximation (NANO)-SLAM, which avoids linearization errors by modeling the sampling distribution as the solution to an optimization problem over Gaussian parameters and solving it using natural gradient descent. This approach improves the accuracy of the sampling distribution and consequently enhances localization performance. Experimental results on the long-distance Sydney Victoria Park vehicle SLAM dataset show that NANO-SLAM achieves over 50\% improvement in localization accuracy compared to the most widely used vehicle SLAM algorithms, with minimal additional computational cost.


A Dynamic Fuzzy Rule and Attribute Management Framework for Fuzzy Inference Systems in High-Dimensional Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents an Adaptive Dynamic Attribute and Rule (ADAR) framework designed to address the challenges posed by high-dimensional data in neuro-fuzzy inference systems. By integrating dual weighting mechanisms-assigning adaptive importance to both attributes and rules-together with automated growth and pruning strategies, ADAR adaptively streamlines complex fuzzy models without sacrificing performance or interpretability. Experimental evaluations on four diverse datasets - Auto MPG (7 variables), Beijing PM2.5 (10 variables), Boston Housing (13 variables), and Appliances Energy Consumption (27 variables) show that ADAR-based models achieve consistently lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) compared to state-of-the-art baselines. On the Beijing PM2.5 dataset, for instance, ADAR-SOFENN attained an RMSE of 56.87 with nine rules, surpassing traditional ANFIS [12] and SOFENN [16] models. Similarly, on the high-dimensional Appliances Energy dataset, ADAR-ANFIS reached an RMSE of 83.25 with nine rules, outperforming established fuzzy logic approaches and interpretability-focused methods such as APLR. Ablation studies further reveal that combining rule-level and attribute-level weight assignment significantly reduces model overlap while preserving essential features, thereby enhancing explainability. These results highlight ADAR's effectiveness in dynamically balancing rule complexity and feature importance, paving the way for scalable, high-accuracy, and transparent neuro-fuzzy systems applicable to a range of real-world scenarios.


Generative Models for Fast Simulation of Cherenkov Detectors at the Electron-Ion Collider

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of Deep Learning (DL) into experimental nuclear and particle physics has driven significant progress in simulation and reconstruction workflows. However, traditional simulation frameworks such as Geant4 remain computationally intensive, especially for Cherenkov detectors, where simulating optical photon transport through complex geometries and reflective surfaces introduces a major bottleneck. To address this, we present an open, standalone fast simulation tool for Detection of Internally Reflected Cherenkov Light (DIRC) detectors, with a focus on the High-Performance DIRC (hpDIRC) at the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). Our framework incorporates a suite of generative models tailored to accelerate particle identification (PID) tasks by offering a scalable, GPU-accelerated alternative to full Geant4 -based simulations. Designed with accessibility in mind, our simulation package enables both DL researchers and physicists to efficiently generate high-fidelity large-scale datasets on demand, without relying on complex traditional simulation stacks. This flexibility supports the development and benchmarking of novel DL-driven PID methods. Moreover, this fast simulation pipeline represents a critical step toward enabling EIC-wide PID strategies that depend on virtually unlimited simulated samples, spanning the full acceptance of the hpDIRC.


A Gradient-Optimized TSK Fuzzy Framework for Explainable Phishing Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Phishing attacks represent an increasingly sophisticated and pervasive threat to individuals and organizations, causing significant financial losses, identity theft, and severe damage to institutional reputations. Existing phishing detection methods often struggle to simultaneously achieve high accuracy and explainability, either failing to detect novel attacks or operating as opaque black-box models. To address this critical gap, we propose a novel phishing URL detection system based on a first-order Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy inference model optimized through gradient-based techniques. Our approach intelligently combines the interpretability and human-like reasoning capabilities of fuzzy logic with the precision and adaptability provided by gradient optimization methods, specifically leveraging the Adam optimizer for efficient parameter tuning. Experiments conducted using a comprehensive dataset of over 235,000 URLs demonstrate rapid convergence, exceptional predictive performance (accuracy averaging 99.95% across 5 cross-validation folds, with a perfect AUC i.e. 1.00). Furthermore, optimized fuzzy rules and membership functions improve interoperability, clearly indicating how the model makes decisions - an essential feature for cybersecurity applications. This high-performance, transparent, and interpretable phishing detection framework significantly advances current cybersecurity defenses, providing practitioners with accurate and explainable decision-making tools.


Bayesian Quantum Orthogonal Neural Networks for Anomaly Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Identification of defects or anomalies in 3D objects is a crucial task to ensure correct functionality. In this work, we combine Bayesian learning with recent developments in quantum and quantum-inspired machine learning, specifically orthogonal neural networks, to tackle this anomaly detection problem for an industrially relevant use case. Bayesian learning enables uncertainty quantification of predictions, while orthogonality in weight matrices enables smooth training. We develop orthogonal (quantum) versions of 3D convolutional neural networks and show that these models can successfully detect anomalies in 3D objects. To test the feasibility of incorporating quantum computers into a quantum-enhanced anomaly detection pipeline, we perform hardware experiments with our models on IBM's 127-qubit Brisbane device, testing the effect of noise and limited measurement shots.


Fuzzy-RRT for Obstacle Avoidance in a 2-DOF Semi-Autonomous Surgical Robotic Arm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI-driven semi-autonomous robotic surgery is essential for addressing the medical challenges of long-duration interplanetary missions, where limited crew sizes and communication delays restrict traditional surgical approaches. Current robotic surgery systems require full surgeon control, demanding extensive expertise and limiting feasibility in space. We propose a novel adaptation of the Fuzzy Rapidly-exploring Random Tree algorithm for obstacle avoidance and collaborative control in a two-degree-of-freedom robotic arm modeled on the Miniaturized Robotic-Assisted surgical system. It was found that the Fuzzy Rapidly-exploring Random Tree algorithm resulted in an 743 percent improvement to path search time and 43 percent improvement to path cost.


Fuzzy Logic -- Based Scheduling System for Part-Time Workforce

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores the application of genetic fuzzy systems to efficiently generate schedules for a team of part-time student workers at a university. Given the preferred number of working hours and availability of employees, our model generates feasible solutions considering various factors, such as maximum weekly hours, required number of workers on duty, and the preferred number of working hours. The algorithm is trained and tested with availability data collected from students at the University of Cincinnati. The results demonstrate the algorithm's efficiency in producing schedules that meet operational criteria and its robustness in understaffed conditions.


Learning High-dimensional Gaussians from Censored Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We provide efficient algorithms for the problem of distribution learning from high-dimensional Gaussian data where in each sample, some of the variable values are missing. We suppose that the variables are missing not at random (MNAR). The missingness model, denoted by $S(y)$, is the function that maps any point $y$ in $R^d$ to the subsets of its coordinates that are seen. In this work, we assume that it is known. We study the following two settings: (i) Self-censoring: An observation $x$ is generated by first sampling the true value $y$ from a $d$-dimensional Gaussian $N(\mu*, \Sigma*)$ with unknown $\mu*$ and $\Sigma*$. For each coordinate $i$, there exists a set $S_i$ subseteq $R^d$ such that $x_i = y_i$ if and only if $y_i$ in $S_i$. Otherwise, $x_i$ is missing and takes a generic value (e.g., "?"). We design an algorithm that learns $N(\mu*, \Sigma*)$ up to total variation (TV) distance epsilon, using $poly(d, 1/\epsilon)$ samples, assuming only that each pair of coordinates is observed with sufficiently high probability. (ii) Linear thresholding: An observation $x$ is generated by first sampling $y$ from a $d$-dimensional Gaussian $N(\mu*, \Sigma)$ with unknown $\mu*$ and known $\Sigma$, and then applying the missingness model $S$ where $S(y) = {i in [d] : v_i^T y <= b_i}$ for some $v_1, ..., v_d$ in $R^d$ and $b_1, ..., b_d$ in $R$. We design an efficient mean estimation algorithm, assuming that none of the possible missingness patterns is very rare conditioned on the values of the observed coordinates and that any small subset of coordinates is observed with sufficiently high probability.


A Dictionary of Closed-Form Kernel Mean Embeddings

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Kernel mean embeddings -- integrals of a kernel with respect to a probability distribution -- are essential in Bayesian quadrature, but also widely used in other computational tools for numerical integration or for statistical inference based on the maximum mean discrepancy. These methods often require, or are enhanced by, the availability of a closed-form expression for the kernel mean embedding. However, deriving such expressions can be challenging, limiting the applicability of kernel-based techniques when practitioners do not have access to a closed-form embedding. This paper addresses this limitation by providing a comprehensive dictionary of known kernel mean embeddings, along with practical tools for deriving new embeddings from known ones. We also provide a Python library that includes minimal implementations of the embeddings.