We revisit the classical, full-fledged Bayesian model averaging (BMA) paradigm to ensemble pre-trained and/or lightly-finetuned foundation models to enhance the classification performance on image and text data. To make BMA tractable under foundation models, we introduce trainable linear classifiers that take frozen features from the pre-trained foundation models as inputs. The model posteriors over the linear classifiers tell us which linear heads and frozen features are better suited for a given dataset, resulting in a principled model ensembling method. Furthermore, we propose a computationally cheaper, optimizable model averaging scheme (OMA). In OMA, we directly optimize the model ensemble weights, just like those weights based on model posterior distributions in BMA, by reducing the amount of surprise (expected entropy of the predictions) we get from predictions of ensembled models. With the rapid development of foundation models, these approaches will enable the incorporation of future, possibly significantly better foundation models to enhance the performance of challenging classification tasks.

Telling apart the cause and effect between two random variables with purely observational data is a challenging problem that finds applications in various scientific disciplines. A key principle utilized in this task is the algorithmic Markov condition, which postulates that the joint distribution, when factorized according to the causal direction, yields a more succinct codelength compared to the anti-causal direction. Previous approaches approximate these codelengths by relying on simple functions or Gaussian processes (GPs) with easily evaluable complexity, compromising between model fitness and computational complexity. To overcome these limitations, we propose leveraging the variational Bayesian learning of neural networks as an interpretation of the codelengths. Consequently, we can enhance the model fitness while promoting the succinctness of the codelengths, while avoiding the significant computational complexity of the GP-based approaches. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks in cause-effect identification demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, surpassing the overall performance of related complexity-based and structural causal model regression-based approaches.

A longstanding goal in safe reinforcement learning (RL) is a method to ensure the safety of a policy throughout the entire process, from learning to operation. However, existing safe RL paradigms inherently struggle to achieve this objective. We propose a method, called Provably Lifetime Safe RL (PLS), that integrates offline safe RL with safe policy deployment to address this challenge. Our proposed method learns a policy offline using return-conditioned supervised learning and then deploys the resulting policy while cautiously optimizing a limited set of parameters, known as target returns, using Gaussian processes (GPs). Theoretically, we justify the use of GPs by analyzing the mathematical relationship between target and actual returns. We then prove that PLS finds near-optimal target returns while guaranteeing safety with high probability. Empirically, we demonstrate that PLS outperforms baselines both in safety and reward performance, thereby achieving the longstanding goal to obtain high rewards while ensuring the safety of a policy throughout the lifetime from learning to operation.

The controllable generation of diffusion models aims to steer the model to generate samples that optimize some given objective functions. It is desirable for a variety of applications including image generation, molecule generation, and DNA/sequence generation. Reinforcement Learning (RL) based fine-tuning of the base model is a popular approach but it can overfit the reward function while requiring significant resources. We frame controllable generation as a problem of finding a distribution that optimizes a KL-regularized objective function. We present SLCD -- Supervised Learning based Controllable Diffusion, which iteratively generates online data and trains a small classifier to guide the generation of the diffusion model. Similar to the standard classifier-guided diffusion, SLCD's key computation primitive is classification and does not involve any complex concepts from RL or control. Via a reduction to no-regret online learning analysis, we show that under KL divergence, the output from SLCD provably converges to the optimal solution of the KL-regularized objective. Further, we empirically demonstrate that SLCD can generate high quality samples with nearly the same inference time as the base model in both image generation with continuous diffusion and biological sequence generation with discrete diffusion. Our code is available at https://github.com/Owen-Oertell/slcd

Generative modeling of non-negative, discrete data, such as symbolic music, remains challenging due to two persistent limitations in existing methods. Firstly, many approaches rely on modeling continuous embeddings, which is suboptimal for inherently discrete data distributions. Secondly, most models optimize variational bounds rather than exact data likelihood, resulting in inaccurate likelihood estimates and degraded sampling quality. While recent diffusion-based models have addressed these issues separately, we tackle them jointly. In this work, we introduce the Information-Theoretic Discrete Poisson Diffusion Model (ItDPDM), inspired by photon arrival process, which combines exact likelihood estimation with fully discrete-state modeling. Central to our approach is an information-theoretic Poisson Reconstruction Loss (PRL) that has a provable exact relationship with the true data likelihood. ItDPDM achieves improved likelihood and sampling performance over prior discrete and continuous diffusion models on a variety of synthetic discrete datasets. Furthermore, on real-world datasets such as symbolic music and images, ItDPDM attains superior likelihood estimates and competitive generation quality-demonstrating a proof of concept for distribution-robust discrete generative modeling.

Recent contributions of semantic information theory reveal the set-element relationship between semantic and syntactic information, represented as synonymous relationships. In this paper, we propose a synonymous variational inference (SVI) method based on this synonymity viewpoint to re-analyze the perceptual image compression problem. It takes perceptual similarity as a typical synonymous criterion to build an ideal synonymous set (Synset), and approximate the posterior of its latent synonymous representation with a parametric density by minimizing a partial semantic KL divergence. This analysis theoretically proves that the optimization direction of perception image compression follows a triple tradeoff that can cover the existing rate-distortion-perception schemes. Additionally, we introduce synonymous image compression (SIC), a new image compression scheme that corresponds to the analytical process of SVI, and implement a progressive SIC codec to fully leverage the model's capabilities. Experimental results demonstrate comparable rate-distortion-perception performance using a single progressive SIC codec, thus verifying the effectiveness of our proposed analysis method.

Recent 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) techniques for Visual Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) have significantly progressed in tracking and high-fidelity mapping. However, their sequential optimization framework and sensitivity to dynamic objects limit real-time performance and robustness in real-world scenarios. We present UP-SLAM, a real-time RGB-D SLAM system for dynamic environments that decouples tracking and mapping through a parallelized framework. A probabilistic octree is employed to manage Gaussian primitives adaptively, enabling efficient initialization and pruning without hand-crafted thresholds. To robustly filter dynamic regions during tracking, we propose a training-free uncertainty estimator that fuses multi-modal residuals to estimate per-pixel motion uncertainty, achieving open-set dynamic object handling without reliance on semantic labels. Furthermore, a temporal encoder is designed to enhance rendering quality. Concurrently, low-dimensional features are efficiently transformed via a shallow multilayer perceptron to construct DINO features, which are then employed to enrich the Gaussian field and improve the robustness of uncertainty prediction. Extensive experiments on multiple challenging datasets suggest that UP-SLAM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both localization accuracy (by 59.8%) and rendering quality (by 4.57 dB PSNR), while maintaining real-time performance and producing reusable, artifact-free static maps in dynamic environments.The project: https://aczheng-cai.github.io/up_slam.github.io/

Predicting the trajectories of vehicles is crucial for the development of autonomous driving (AD) systems, particularly in complex and dynamic traffic environments. In this study, we introduce HiT (Human-like Trajectory Prediction), a novel model designed to enhance trajectory prediction by incorporating behavior-aware modules and dynamic centrality measures. Unlike traditional methods that primarily rely on static graph structures, HiT leverages a dynamic framework that accounts for both direct and indirect interactions among traffic participants. This allows the model to capture the subtle yet significant influences of surrounding vehicles, enabling more accurate and human-like predictions. To evaluate HiT's performance, we conducted extensive experiments using diverse and challenging real-world datasets, including NGSIM, HighD, RounD, ApolloScape, and MoCAD++. The results demonstrate that HiT consistently outperforms other top models across multiple metrics, particularly excelling in scenarios involving aggressive driving behaviors. This research presents a significant step forward in trajectory prediction, offering a more reliable and interpretable approach for enhancing the safety and efficiency of fully autonomous driving systems.

Instrumental variables (IV) analysis is an important applied tool for areas such as healthcare and consumer economics. For IV analysis in high-dimensional settings, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) using deep neural networks offers an efficient approach. With non-i.i.d. data sourced from scattered decentralized clients, federated learning is a popular paradigm for training the models while promising data privacy. However, to our knowledge, no federated algorithm for either GMM or IV analysis exists to date. In this work, we introduce federated instrumental variables analysis (FedIV) via federated generalized method of moments (FedGMM). We formulate FedGMM as a federated zero-sum game defined by a federated non-convex non-concave minimax optimization problem, which is solved using federated gradient descent ascent (FedGDA) algorithm. One key challenge arises in theoretically characterizing the federated local optimality. To address this, we present properties and existence results of clients' local equilibria via FedGDA limit points. Thereby, we show that the federated solution consistently estimates the local moment conditions of every participating client. The proposed algorithm is backed by extensive experiments to demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.

Designing algorithms for solving high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems directly in infinite-dimensional function spaces - where such problems are naturally formulated - is crucial to ensure stability and convergence as the discretization of the underlying problem is refined. In this paper, we contribute to this line of work by analyzing a widely used sampler for linear inverse problems: Langevin dynamics driven by score-based generative models (SGMs) acting as priors, formulated directly in function space. Building on the theoretical framework for SGMs in Hilbert spaces, we give a rigorous definition of this sampler in the infinite-dimensional setting and derive, for the first time, error estimates that explicitly depend on the approximation error of the score. As a consequence, we obtain sufficient conditions for global convergence in Kullback-Leibler divergence on the underlying function space. Preventing numerical instabilities requires preconditioning of the Langevin algorithm and we prove the existence and the form of an optimal preconditioner. The preconditioner depends on both the score error and the forward operator and guarantees a uniform convergence rate across all posterior modes. Our analysis applies to both Gaussian and a general class of non-Gaussian priors. Finally, we present examples that illustrate and validate our theoretical findings.