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 Uncertainty


Vision Generalist Model: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently, we have witnessed the great success of the generalist model in natural language processing. The generalist model is a general framework trained with massive data and is able to process various downstream tasks simultaneously. Encouraged by their impressive performance, an increasing number of researchers are venturing into the realm of applying these models to computer vision tasks. However, the inputs and outputs of vision tasks are more diverse, and it is difficult to summarize them as a unified representation. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the vision generalist models, delving into their characteristics and capabilities within the field. First, we review the background, including the datasets, tasks, and benchmarks. Then, we dig into the design of frameworks that have been proposed in existing research, while also introducing the techniques employed to enhance their performance. To better help the researchers comprehend the area, we take a brief excursion into related domains, shedding light on their interconnections and potential synergies. To conclude, we provide some real-world application scenarios, undertake a thorough examination of the persistent challenges, and offer insights into possible directions for future research endeavors.


Uncertainty Prioritized Experience Replay

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prioritized experience replay, which improves sample efficiency by selecting relevant transitions to update parameter estimates, is a crucial component of contemporary value-based deep reinforcement learning models. Typically, transitions are prioritized based on their temporal difference error. However, this approach is prone to favoring noisy transitions, even when the value estimation closely approximates the target mean. This phenomenon resembles the noisy TV problem postulated in the exploration literature, in which exploration-guided agents get stuck by mistaking noise for novelty. To mitigate the disruptive effects of noise in value estimation, we propose using epistemic uncertainty estimation to guide the prioritization of transitions from the replay buffer. Epistemic uncertainty quantifies the uncertainty that can be reduced by learning, hence reducing transitions sampled from the buffer generated by unpredictable random processes. We first illustrate the benefits of epistemic uncertainty prioritized replay in two tabular toy models: a simple multi-arm bandit task, and a noisy gridworld. Subsequently, we evaluate our prioritization scheme on the Atari suite, outperforming quantile regression deep Q-learning benchmarks; thus forging a path for the use of uncertainty prioritized replay in reinforcement learning agents.


BASIL: Best-Action Symbolic Interpretable Learning for Evolving Compact RL Policies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The quest for interpretable reinforcement learning is a grand challenge for the deployment of autonomous decision-making systems in safety-critical applications. Modern deep reinforcement learning approaches, while powerful, tend to produce opaque policies that compromise verification, reduce transparency, and impede human oversight. To address this, we introduce BASIL (Best-Action Symbolic Interpretable Learning), a systematic approach for generating symbolic, rule-based policies via online evolutionary search with quality-diversity (QD) optimization. BASIL represents policies as ordered lists of symbolic predicates over state variables, ensuring full interpretability and tractable policy complexity. By using a QD archive, the methodology in the proposed study encourages behavioral and structural diversity between top-performing solutions, while a complexity-aware fitness encourages the synthesis of compact representations. The evolutionary system supports the use of exact constraints for rule count and system adaptability for balancing transparency with expressiveness. Empirical comparisons with three benchmark tasks CartPole-v1, MountainCar-v0, and Acrobot-v1 show that BASIL consistently synthesizes interpretable controllers with compact representations comparable to deep reinforcement learning baselines. Herein, this article introduces a new interpretable policy synthesis method that combines symbolic expressiveness, evolutionary diversity, and online learning through a unifying framework.


Is Noise Conditioning Necessary? A Unified Theory of Unconditional Graph Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Explicit noise-level conditioning is widely regarded as essential for the effective operation of Graph Diffusion Models (GDMs). In this work, we challenge this assumption by investigating whether denoisers can implicitly infer noise levels directly from corrupted graph structures, potentially eliminating the need for explicit noise conditioning. To this end, we develop a theoretical framework centered on Bernoulli edge-flip corruptions and extend it to encompass more complex scenarios involving coupled structure-attribute noise. Extensive empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world graph datasets, using models such as GDSS and DiGress, provide strong support for our theoretical findings. Notably, unconditional GDMs achieve performance comparable or superior to their conditioned counterparts, while also offering reductions in parameters (4-6%) and computation time (8-10%). Our results suggest that the high-dimensional nature of graph data itself often encodes sufficient information for the denoising process, opening avenues for simpler, more efficient GDM architectures.


A Sample Efficient Conditional Independence Test in the Presence of Discretization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many real-world scenarios, interested variables are often represented as discretized values due to measurement limitations. Applying Conditional Independence (CI) tests directly to such discretized data, however, can lead to incorrect conclusions. To address this, recent advancements have sought to infer the correct CI relationship between the latent variables through binarizing observed data. However, this process inevitably results in a loss of information, which degrades the test's performance. Motivated by this, this paper introduces a sample-efficient CI test that does not rely on the binarization process. We find that the independence relationships of latent continuous variables can be established by addressing an over-identifying restriction problem with Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Based on this insight, we derive an appropriate test statistic and establish its asymptotic distribution correctly reflecting CI by leveraging nodewise regression. Theoretical findings and Empirical results across various datasets demonstrate that the superiority and effectiveness of our proposed test. Our code implementation is provided in https://github.com/boyangaaaaa/DCT


Continuous Temporal Learning of Probability Distributions via Neural ODEs with Applications in Continuous Glucose Monitoring Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modeling the dynamics of probability distributions from time-dependent data samples is a fundamental problem in many fields, including digital health. The goal is to analyze how the distribution of a biomarker, such as glucose, changes over time and how these changes may reflect the progression of chronic diseases like diabetes. We introduce a probabilistic model based on a Gaussian mixture that captures the evolution of a continuous-time stochastic process. Our approach combines a non-parametric estimate of the distribution, obtained with Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), and a Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) that governs the temporal evolution of the mixture weights. The model is highly interpretable, detects subtle distribution shifts, and remains computationally efficient. Simulation studies show that our method matches or surpasses the estimation accuracy of state-of-the-art, less interpretable techniques such as normalizing flows and non-parametric kernel density estimators. We further demonstrate its utility using data from a digital clinical trial, revealing how interventions affect the time-dependent distribution of glucose levels. The proposed method enables rigorous comparisons between control and treatment groups from both mathematical and clinical perspectives, offering novel longitudinal characterizations that existing approaches cannot achieve.


Federated Learning: From Theory to Practice

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This book offers a hands-on introduction to building and understanding federated learning (FL) systems. FL enables multiple devices -- such as smartphones, sensors, or local computers -- to collaboratively train machine learning (ML) models, while keeping their data private and local. It is a powerful solution when data cannot or should not be centralized due to privacy, regulatory, or technical reasons. The book is designed for students, engineers, and researchers who want to learn how to design scalable, privacy preserving FL systems. Our main focus is on personalization: enabling each device to train its own model while still benefiting from collaboration with relevant devices. This is achieved by leveraging similarities between (the learning tasks associated with) devices that are encoded by the weighted edges (or links) of a federated learning network (FL network). The key idea is to represent real-world FL systems as networks of devices, where nodes correspond to device and edges represent communication links and data similarities between them. The training of personalized models for these devices can be naturally framed as a distributed optimization problem. This optimization problem is referred to as generalized total variation minimization (GTVMin) and ensures that devices with similar learning tasks learn similar model parameters. Our approach is both mathematically principled and practically motivated. While we introduce some advanced ideas from optimization theory and graph-based learning, we aim to keep the book accessible. Readers are guided through the core ideas step by step, with intuitive explanations.


FUSE: Measure-Theoretic Compact Fuzzy Set Representation for Taxonomy Expansion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Taxonomy Expansion, which models complex concepts and their relations, can be formulated as a set representation learning task. The generalization of set, fuzzy set, incorporates uncertainty and measures the information within a semantic concept, making it suitable for concept modeling. Existing works usually model sets as vectors or geometric objects such as boxes, which are not closed under set operations. In this work, we propose a sound and efficient formulation of set representation learning based on its volume approximation as a fuzzy set. The resulting embedding framework, Fuzzy Set Embedding (FUSE), satisfies all set operations and compactly approximates the underlying fuzzy set, hence preserving information while being efficient to learn, relying on minimum neural architecture. We empirically demonstrate the power of FUSE on the task of taxonomy expansion, where FUSE achieves remarkable improvements up to 23% compared with existing baselines. Our work marks the first attempt to understand and efficiently compute the embeddings of fuzzy sets.


Bayesian Inverse Physics for Neuro-Symbolic Robot Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-world robotic applications, from autonomous exploration to assistive technologies, require adaptive, interpretable, and data-efficient learning paradigms. While deep learning architectures and foundation models have driven significant advances in diverse robotic applications, they remain limited in their ability to operate efficiently and reliably in unknown and dynamic environments. In this position paper, we critically assess these limitations and introduce a conceptual framework for combining data-driven learning with deliberate, structured reasoning. Specifically, we propose leveraging differentiable physics for efficient world modeling, Bayesian inference for uncertainty-aware decision-making, and meta-learning for rapid adaptation to new tasks. By embedding physical symbolic reasoning within neural models, robots could generalize beyond their training data, reason about novel situations, and continuously expand their knowledge. We argue that such hybrid neuro-symbolic architectures are essential for the next generation of autonomous systems, and to this end, we provide a research roadmap to guide and accelerate their development.


CausalPFN: Amortized Causal Effect Estimation via In-Context Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out-of-the-box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model does not require any further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN).