The emergence of online social platforms, such as social networks and social media, has drastically affected the way people apprehend the information flows to which they are exposed. In such platforms, various information cascades spreading among users is the main force creating complex dynamics of opinion formation, each user being characterized by their own behavior adoption mechanism. Moreover, the spread of multiple pieces of information or beliefs in a networked population is rarely uncorrelated. In this paper, we introduce the Mixture of Interacting Cascades (MIC), a model of marked multidimensional Hawkes processes with the capacity to model jointly non-trivial interaction between cascades and users. We emphasize on the interplay between information cascades and user activity, and use a mixture of temporal point processes to build a coupled user/cascade point process model. Experiments on synthetic and real data highlight the benefits of this approach and demonstrate that MIC achieves superior performance to existing methods in modeling the spread of information cascades. Finally, we demonstrate how MIC can provide, through its learned parameters, insightful bi-layered visualizations of real social network activity data.

We propose Network Automatic Relevance Determination (NARD), an extension of ARD for linearly probabilistic models, to simultaneously model sparse relationships between inputs $X \in \mathbb R^{d \times N}$ and outputs $Y \in \mathbb R^{m \times N}$, while capturing the correlation structure among the $Y$. NARD employs a matrix normal prior which contains a sparsity-inducing parameter to identify and discard irrelevant features, thereby promoting sparsity in the model. Algorithmically, it iteratively updates both the precision matrix and the relationship between $Y$ and the refined inputs. To mitigate the computational inefficiencies of the $\mathcal O(m^3 + d^3)$ cost per iteration, we introduce Sequential NARD, which evaluates features sequentially, and a Surrogate Function Method, leveraging an efficient approximation of the marginal likelihood and simplifying the calculation of determinant and inverse of an intermediate matrix. Combining the Sequential update with the Surrogate Function method further reduces computational costs. The computational complexity per iteration for these three methods is reduced to $\mathcal O(m^3+p^3)$, $\mathcal O(m^3 + d^2)$, $\mathcal O(m^3+p^2)$, respectively, where $p \ll d$ is the final number of features in the model. Our methods demonstrate significant improvements in computational efficiency with comparable performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are tractable representations of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. Recent advancements have improved the scalability of PCs either by leveraging their sparse properties or through the use of tensorized operations for better hardware utilization. However, no existing method fully exploits both aspects simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a novel sparse and structured parameterization for the sum blocks in PCs. By replacing dense matrices with sparse Monarch matrices, we significantly reduce the memory and computation costs, enabling unprecedented scaling of PCs. From a theory perspective, our construction arises naturally from circuit multiplication; from a practical perspective, compared to previous efforts on scaling up tractable probabilistic models, our approach not only achieves state-of-the-art generative modeling performance on challenging benchmarks like Text8, LM1B and ImageNet, but also demonstrates superior scaling behavior, achieving the same performance with substantially less compute as measured by the number of floating-point operations (FLOPs) during training.

In contrast to conventional self-learning approaches, our proposed framework offers an event-driven control strategy and game-theoretic learning algorithms. The players collaborate with the PID controllers to dynamically adjust their gains in response to set point changes and disturbances. We provide a theoretical analysis showing sound convergence guarantees for the game given suitable stability ranges of the PID controlled loop. We further introduce an automatic boundary detection mechanism, which helps the players to find an optimal initialization of action spaces and significantly reduces the exploration time. The efficacy of this novel methodology is validated through its implementation in the temperature control loop of a printing press machine. Eventually, the outcomes of the proposed intelligent self-tuning PID controllers are highly promising, particularly in terms of reducing overshoot and settling time.

Scaling has been a major driver of recent advancements in deep learning. Numerous empirical studies have found that scaling laws often follow the power-law and proposed several variants of power-law functions to predict the scaling behavior at larger scales. However, existing methods mostly rely on point estimation and do not quantify uncertainty, which is crucial for real-world applications involving decision-making problems such as determining the expected performance improvements achievable by investing additional computational resources. In this work, we explore a Bayesian framework based on Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs) for neural scaling law extrapolation. Specifically, we design a prior distribution that enables the sampling of infinitely many synthetic functions resembling real-world neural scaling laws, allowing our PFN to meta-learn the extrapolation. We validate the effectiveness of our approach on real-world neural scaling laws, comparing it against both the existing point estimation methods and Bayesian approaches. Our method demonstrates superior performance, particularly in data-limited scenarios such as Bayesian active learning, underscoring its potential for reliable, uncertainty-aware extrapolation in practical applications.

The identification of channel scenarios in wireless systems plays a crucial role in channel modeling, radio fingerprint positioning, and transceiver design. Traditional methods to classify channel scenarios are based on typical statistical characteristics of channels, such as K-factor, path loss, delay spread, etc. However, statistic-based channel identification methods cannot accurately differentiate implicit features induced by dynamic scatterers, thus performing very poorly in identifying similar channel scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel channel scenario identification method, formulating the identification task as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. Furthermore, the MAP estimation is reformulated by a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which is then approximated and solved by the conditional generative diffusion model. Specifically, we leverage a transformer network to capture hidden channel features in multiple latent noise spaces within the reverse process of the conditional generative diffusion model. These detailed features, which directly affect likelihood functions in MLE, enable highly accurate scenario identification. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms traditional methods, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), back-propagation neural networks (BPNNs), and random forest-based classifiers, improving the identification accuracy by more than 10%.

There are many genetic and environmental factors that affect cognitive development. Music education can also be considered as one of the environmental factors. Some researchers emphasize that Music is an action that requires meta-cognitive functions such as mathematics and chess and supports spatial intelligence. The effect of Music on cognitive development in early childhood was examined using the Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets(PFS) method defined by Yager. This study created PFS based on experts' opinions, and an algorithm was given according to PFS. The algorithm's results supported the experts' data on the development of spatial-temporal skills in music education given in early childhood. The algorithm's ranking was done using the Expectation Score Function. The rankings obtained from the algorithm overlap with the experts' rankings.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful framework in generative modeling, typically relying on optimizing neural networks to estimate the score function via forward SDE simulations. In this work, we propose an alternative method that is both optimization-free and forward SDE-free. By expanding the score function in a sparse set of eigenbasis of the backward Kolmogorov operator associated with the diffusion process, we reformulate score estimation as the solution to a linear system, avoiding iterative optimization and time-dependent sample generation. We analyze the approximation error using perturbation theory and demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on high-dimensional Boltzmann distributions and real-world datasets.

In this paper, we investigate how randomness and uncertainty influence learning in games. Specifically, we examine a perturbed variant of the dynamics of "follow-the-regularized-leader" (FTRL), where the players' payoff observations and strategy updates are continually impacted by random shocks. Our findings reveal that, in a fairly precise sense, "uncertainty favors extremes": in any game, regardless of the noise level, every player's trajectory of play reaches an arbitrarily small neighborhood of a pure strategy in finite time (which we estimate). Moreover, even if the player does not ultimately settle at this strategy, they return arbitrarily close to some (possibly different) pure strategy infinitely often. This prompts the question of which sets of pure strategies emerge as robust predictions of learning under uncertainty. We show that (a) the only possible limits of the FTRL dynamics under uncertainty are pure Nash equilibria; and (b) a span of pure strategies is stable and attracting if and only if it is closed under better replies. Finally, we turn to games where the deterministic dynamics are recurrent - such as zero-sum games with interior equilibria - and we show that randomness disrupts this behavior, causing the stochastic dynamics to drift toward the boundary on average.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved impressive success in visual generation. While, they suffer from slow inference speed due to iterative sampling. Employing fewer sampling steps is an intuitive solution, but this will also introduces discretization error. Existing fast samplers make inspiring efforts to reduce discretization error through the adoption of high-order solvers, potentially reaching a plateau in terms of optimization. This raises the question: can the sampling process be accelerated further? In this paper, we re-examine the nature of sampling errors, discerning that they comprise two distinct elements: the widely recognized discretization error and the less explored approximation error. Our research elucidates the dynamics between these errors and the step by implementing a dual-error disentanglement strategy. Building on these foundations, we introduce an unified and training-free acceleration framework, DualFast, designed to enhance the speed of DPM sampling by concurrently accounting for both error types, thereby minimizing the total sampling error. DualFast is seamlessly compatible with existing samplers and significantly boost their sampling quality and speed, particularly in extremely few sampling steps. We substantiate the effectiveness of our framework through comprehensive experiments, spanning both unconditional and conditional sampling domains, across both pixel-space and latent-space DPMs.