We consider learning Nash equilibria in two-player zero-sum Markov Games with nonlinear function approximation, where the action-value function is approximated by a function in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). The key challenge is how to do exploration in the high-dimensional function space. We propose a novel online learning algorithm to find a Nash equilibrium by minimizing the duality gap. At the core of our algorithms are upper and lower confidence bounds that are derived based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty. We prove that our algorithm is able to attain an O(\sqrt{T}) regret with polynomial computational complexity, under very mild assumptions on the reward function and the underlying dynamic of the Markov Games.

In this paper, we introduce a score-based diffusion model appr oach for adaptively learning the time-evolving solutions of stochastic partial differential equat ions (SPDEs) through recursive Bayesian inference. Partial differential equations (PDEs) are fundamental tools for modeling the dynamic behavior of complex physical systems. While they have been widely suc cessful in scientific and engineering applications, many practical scenarios involve inherent unc ertainties due to limited physical knowledge and environmental variability. For example, in climate and meteorological modeling, uncertainties in initial conditions, boundary data, and subgrid-scale ph ysical processes can significantly affect the accuracy of predictions governed by PDEs such as the Navier-Stokes or advection-diffusion equations. Similarly, in porous media flow problems, spatial het erogeneity and limited characterization of subsurface properties -- such as permeability or porosity -- i ntroduce substantial uncertainty into models governed by Darcy's law and related PDEs, making accu rate prediction particularly challenging. To capture these uncertainty effects and support rel iable predictive analysis, it is essential to incorporate SPDEs into mathematical modeling framework . The numerical solution of SPDEs has thus become a central focus of the uncertainty quantifica tion (UQ) community, where significant efforts have been dedicated to developing efficient solvers tha t can accurately characterize and propagate uncertainty in high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamica l systems (see, e.g., [1, 2, 13, 21, 36, 42, 53] and the reference therein). Despite advances in SPDE solvers capable of quantifying unc ertainty, significant challenges remain.

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective prediction -- where models abstain when confidence is low. We first show that a model's training trajectory contains rich uncertainty signals that can be exploited without altering its architecture or loss. By ensembling predictions from intermediate checkpoints, we propose a lightweight, post-hoc abstention method that works across tasks, avoids the cost of deep ensembles, and achieves state-of-the-art selective prediction performance. Crucially, this approach is fully compatible with differential privacy (DP), allowing us to study how privacy noise affects uncertainty quality. We find that while many methods degrade under DP, our trajectory-based approach remains robust, and we introduce a framework for isolating the privacy-uncertainty trade-off. Next, we then develop a finite-sample decomposition of the selective classification gap -- the deviation from the oracle accuracy-coverage curve -- identifying five interpretable error sources and clarifying which interventions can close the gap. This explains why calibration alone cannot fix ranking errors, motivating methods that improve uncertainty ordering. Finally, we show that uncertainty signals can be adversarially manipulated to hide errors or deny service while maintaining high accuracy, and we design defenses combining calibration audits with verifiable inference. Together, these contributions advance reliable ML by improving, evaluating, and safeguarding uncertainty estimation, enabling models that not only make accurate predictions -- but also know when to say "I do not know".

Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are widely used in health and environmental research to represent hypothesized causal structures underlying complex problems. However, as qualitative and static representations, CLDs are limited in their ability to support dynamic analysis and inform intervention strategies. Additionally, quantitative CLD analysis methods like network centrality analysis often lead to false inference. We propose Diagrams-to-Dynamics (D2D), a method for converting CLDs into exploratory system dynamics models (SDMs) in the absence of empirical data. With minimal user input - following a protocol to label variables as stocks, flows or auxiliaries, and constants - D2D leverages the structural information already encoded in CLDs, namely, link existence and polarity, to simulate hypothetical interventions and explore potential leverage points under uncertainty. Results suggest that D2D helps distinguish between high- and low-ranked leverage points. We compare D2D to a data-driven SDM constructed from the same CLD and variable labels. D2D showed greater consistency with the data-driven model than network centrality analysis, while providing uncertainty estimates and guidance for future data collection. The method is implemented in an open-source Python package and a web-based application to support further testing and lower the barrier to dynamic modeling for researchers working with CLDs. We expect additional validation will further establish the approach's utility across a broad range of cases and domains.

We propose a joint learning framework for Byzantine-resilient spectrum sensing and secure intelligent reflecting surface (IRS)--assisted opportunistic access under channel state information (CSI) uncertainty. The sensing stage performs logit-domain Bayesian updates with trimmed aggregation and attention-weighted consensus, and the base station (BS) fuses network beliefs with a conservative minimum rule, preserving detection accuracy under a bounded number of Byzantine users. Conditioned on the sensing outcome, we pose downlink design as sum mean-squared error (MSE) minimization under transmit-power and signal-leakage constraints and jointly optimize the BS precoder, IRS phase shifts, and user equalizers. With partial (or known) CSI, we develop an augmented-Lagrangian alternating algorithm with projected updates and provide provable sublinear convergence, with accelerated rates under mild local curvature. With unknown CSI, we perform constrained Bayesian optimization (BO) in a geometry-aware low-dimensional latent space using Gaussian process (GP) surrogates; we prove regret bounds for a constrained upper confidence bound (UCB) variant of the BO module, and demonstrate strong empirical performance of the implemented procedure. Simulations across diverse network conditions show higher detection probability at fixed false-alarm rate under adversarial attacks, large reductions in sum MSE for honest users, strong suppression of eavesdropper signal power, and fast convergence. The framework offers a practical path to secure opportunistic communication that adapts to CSI availability while coherently coordinating sensing and transmission through joint learning.

The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence has been widely applied in the field of information fusion under uncertainty. Most existing research focuses on combining evidence within the same frame of discernment. However, in real-world scenarios, trained algorithms or data often originate from different regions or organizations, where data silos are prevalent. As a result, using different data sources or models to generate basic probability assignments may lead to heterogeneous frames, for which traditional fusion methods often yield unsatisfactory results. To address this challenge, this study proposes an open-world information fusion method, termed Full Negation Belief Transformation (FNBT), based on the Dempster-Shafer theory. More specially, a criterion is introduced to determine whether a given fusion task belongs to the open-world setting. Then, by extending the frames, the method can accommodate elements from heterogeneous frames. Finally, a full negation mechanism is employed to transform the mass functions, so that existing combination rules can be applied to the transformed mass functions for such information fusion. Theoretically, the proposed method satisfies three desirable properties, which are formally proven: mass function invariance, heritability, and essential conflict elimination. Empirically, FNBT demonstrates superior performance in pattern classification tasks on real-world datasets and successfully resolves Zadeh's counterexample, thereby validating its practical effectiveness.

This paper presents an improved exponential tail bound for Beta distributions, refining a result in [15]. This improvement is achieved by interpreting their bound as a regular Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence one, while introducing a specific perturbation $η$ that shifts the mean of the Beta distribution closer to zero within the KL bound. Our contribution is to show that a larger perturbation can be chosen, thereby tightening the bound. We then extend this result from the Beta distribution to Dirichlet distributions and Dirichlet processes (DPs).

Deep generative models (DGMs) for graphs achieve impressively high expressive power thanks to very efficient and scalable neural networks. However, these networks contain non-linearities that prevent analytical computation of many standard probabilistic inference queries, i.e., these DGMs are considered \emph{intractable}. While recently proposed Probabilistic Graph Circuits (PGCs) address this issue by enabling \emph{tractable} probabilistic inference, they operate on dense graph representations with $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ complexity for graphs with $n$ nodes and \emph{$m$ edges}. To address this scalability issue, we introduce Sparse PGCs, a new class of tractable generative models that operate directly on sparse graph representation, reducing the complexity to $\mathcal{O}(n + m)$, which is particularly beneficial for $m \ll n^2$. In the context of de novo drug design, we empirically demonstrate that SPGCs retain exact inference capabilities, improve memory efficiency and inference speed, and match the performance of intractable DGMs in key metrics.

Alignment methodologies have emerged as a critical pathway for enhancing language model alignment capabilities. While SFT (supervised fine-tuning) accelerates convergence through direct token-level loss intervention, its efficacy is constrained by offline policy trajectory. In contrast, RL(reinforcement learning) facilitates exploratory policy optimization, but suffers from low sample efficiency and stringent dependency on high-quality base models. To address these dual challenges, we propose GRAO (Group Relative Alignment Optimization), a unified framework that synergizes the respective strengths of SFT and RL through three key innovations: 1) A multi-sample generation strategy enabling comparative quality assessment via reward feedback; 2) A novel Group Direct Alignment Loss formulation leveraging intra-group relative advantage weighting; 3) Reference-aware parameter updates guided by pairwise preference dynamics. Our theoretical analysis establishes GRAO's convergence guarantees and sample efficiency advantages over conventional approaches. Comprehensive evaluations across complex human alignment tasks demonstrate GRAO's superior performance, achieving 57.70\%,17.65\% 7.95\% and 5.18\% relative improvements over SFT, DPO, PPO and GRPO baselines respectively. This work provides both a theoretically grounded alignment framework and empirical evidence for efficient capability evolution in language models.

This work presents a statistical mechanics characterization of neural networks, motivated by the replica symmetry breaking (RSB) phenomenon in spin glasses. A Hopfield-type spin glass model is constructed from a given feedforward neural network (FNN). Overlaps between simulated replica samples serve as a characteristic descriptor of the FNN. The connection between the spin-glass description and commonly studied properties of the FNN -- such as data fitting, capacity, generalization, and robustness -- has been investigated and empirically demonstrated. Unlike prior analytical studies that focus on model ensembles, this method provides a computable descriptor for individual network instances, which reveals nontrivial structural properties that are not captured by conventional metrics such as loss or accuracy. Preliminary results suggests its potential for practical applications such as model inspection, safety verification, and detection of hidden vulnerabilities.