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 Uncertainty


An Auditable Pipeline for Fuzzy Full-Text Screening in Systematic Reviews: Integrating Contrastive Semantic Highlighting and LLM Judgment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Full-text screening is the major bottleneck of systematic reviews (SRs), as decisive evidence is dispersed across long, heterogeneous documents and rarely admits static, binary rules. We present a scalable, auditable pipeline that reframes inclusion/exclusion as a fuzzy decision problem and benchmark it against statistical and crisp baselines in the context of the Population Health Modelling Consensus Reporting Network for noncommunicable diseases (POPCORN). Articles are parsed into overlapping chunks and embedded with a domain-adapted model; for each criterion (Population, Intervention, Outcome, Study Approach), we compute contrastive similarity (inclusion-exclusion cosine) and a vagueness margin, which a Mamdani fuzzy controller maps into graded inclusion degrees with dynamic thresholds in a multi-label setting. A large language model (LLM) judge adjudicates highlighted spans with tertiary labels, confidence scores, and criterion-referenced rationales; when evidence is insufficient, fuzzy membership is attenuated rather than excluded. In a pilot on an all-positive gold set (16 full texts; 3,208 chunks), the fuzzy system achieved recall of 81.3% (Population), 87.5% (Intervention), 87.5% (Outcome), and 75.0% (Study Approach), surpassing statistical (56.3-75.0%) and crisp baselines (43.8-81.3%). Strict "all-criteria" inclusion was reached for 50.0% of articles, compared to 25.0% and 12.5% under the baselines. Cross-model agreement on justifications was 98.3%, human-machine agreement 96.1%, and a pilot review showed 91% inter-rater agreement (kappa = 0.82), with screening time reduced from about 20 minutes to under 1 minute per article at significantly lower cost. These results show that fuzzy logic with contrastive highlighting and LLM adjudication yields high recall, stable rationale, and end-to-end traceability.


Hierarchical Decision-Making for Autonomous Navigation: Integrating Deep Reinforcement Learning and Fuzzy Logic in Four-Wheel Independent Steering and Driving Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a hierarchical decision-making framework for autonomous navigation in four-wheel independent steering and driving (4WISD) systems. The proposed approach integrates deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for high-level navigation with fuzzy logic for low-level control to ensure both task performance and physical feasibility. The DRL agent generates global motion commands, while the fuzzy logic controller enforces kinematic constraints to prevent mechanical strain and wheel slippage. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms traditional navigation methods, offering enhanced training efficiency and stability and mitigating erratic behaviors compared to purely DRL-based solutions. Real-world validations further confirm the framework's ability to navigate safely and effectively in dynamic industrial settings. Overall, this work provides a scalable and reliable solution for deploying 4WISD mobile robots in complex, real-world scenarios.


NOSTRA: A noise-resilient and sparse data framework for trust region based multi objective Bayesian optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) struggles with sparse (non-space-filling), scarce (limited observations) datasets affected by experimental uncertainty, where identical inputs can yield varying outputs. These challenges are common in physical and simulation experiments (e.g., randomized medical trials and, molecular dynamics simulations) and are therefore incompatible with conventional MOBO methods. As a result, experimental resources are inefficiently allocated, leading to subop-timal designs. To address this challenge, we introduce NOSTRA (Noisy and Sparse Data Trust Region-based Optimization Algorithm), a novel sampling framework that integrates prior knowledge of experimental uncertainty to construct more accurate surrogate models while employing trust regions to focus sampling on promising areas of the design space. By strategically leveraging prior information and refining search regions, NOSTRA accelerates convergence to the Pareto frontier, enhances data efficiency, and improves solution quality. Through two test functions with varying levels of experimental uncertainty, we demonstrate that NOSTRA outperforms existing methods in handling noisy, sparse, and scarce data. Specifically, we illustrate that, NOSTRA effectively prioritizes regions where samples enhance the accuracy of the identified Pareto frontier, offering a resource-efficient algorithm that is practical in scenarios with limited experimental budgets while ensuring efficient performance.


GPL-SLAM: A Laser SLAM Framework with Gaussian Process Based Extended Landmarks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) method that employs Gaussian Process (GP) based landmark (object) representations. Instead of conventional grid maps or point cloud registration, we model the environment on a per object basis using GP based contour representations. These contours are updated online through a recursive scheme, enabling efficient memory usage. The SLAM problem is formulated within a fully Bayesian framework, allowing joint inference over the robot pose and object based map. This representation provides semantic information such as the number of objects and their areas, while also supporting probabilistic measurement to object associations. Furthermore, the GP based contours yield confidence bounds on object shapes, offering valuable information for downstream tasks like safe navigation and exploration. We validate our method on synthetic and real world experiments, and show that it delivers accurate localization and mapping performance across diverse structured environments.


Limit-Computable Grains of Truth for Arbitrary Computable Extensive-Form (Un)Known Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A Bayesian player acting in an infinite multi-player game learns to predict the other players' strategies if his prior assigns positive probability to their play (or contains a grain of truth). Kalai and Lehrer's classic grain of truth problem is to find a reasonably large class of strategies that contains the Bayes-optimal policies with respect to this class, allowing mutually-consistent beliefs about strategy choice that obey the rules of Bayesian inference. Only small classes are known to have a grain of truth and the literature contains several related impossibility results. In this paper we present a formal and general solution to the full grain of truth problem: we construct a class of strategies wide enough to contain all computable strategies as well as Bayes-optimal strategies for every reasonable prior over the class. When the "environment" is a known repeated stage game, we show convergence in the sense of [KL93a] and [KL93b]. When the environment is unknown, agents using Thompson sampling converge to play $\varepsilon$-Nash equilibria in arbitrary unknown computable multi-agent environments. Finally, we include an application to self-predictive policies that avoid planning. While these results use computability theory only as a conceptual tool to solve a classic game theory problem, we show that our solution can naturally be computationally approximated arbitrarily closely.


A State-Space Approach to Nonstationary Discriminant Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Classical discriminant analysis assumes identically distributed training data, yet in many applications observations are collected over time and the class-conditional distributions drift. This population drift renders stationary classifiers unreliable. We propose a principled, model-based framework that embeds discriminant analysis within state-space models to obtain nonstationary linear discriminant analysis (NSLDA) and nonstationary quadratic discriminant analysis (NSQDA). For linear-Gaussian dynamics, we adapt Kalman smoothing to handle multiple samples per time step and develop two practical extensions: (i) an expectation-maximization (EM) approach that jointly estimates unknown system parameters, and (ii) a Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-Kalman method that simultaneously recovers unobserved time labels and parameters, a scenario common in practice. To address nonlinear or non-Gaussian drift, we employ particle smoothing to estimate time-varying class centroids, yielding fully nonstationary discriminant rules. Extensive simulations demonstrate consistent improvements over stationary linear discriminant analysis (LDA), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), and support vector machine (SVM) baselines, with robustness to noise, missing data, and class imbalance. This paper establishes a unified and data-efficient foundation for discriminant analysis under temporal distribution shift.


CIGaRS I: Combined simulation-based inference from SNae Ia and host photometry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Using type Ia supernovae (SNae Ia) as cosmological probes requires empirical corrections, which correlate with their host environment. We present a unified Bayesian hierarchical model designed to infer, from purely photometric observations, the intrinsic dependence of SN Ia brightness on progenitor properties (metallicity & age), the delay-time distribution (DTD) that governs their rate as a function of age, and cosmology, as well as the redshifts of all hosts. The model incorporates physics-based prescriptions for star formation and chemical evolution from Prospector-beta, dust extinction of both galaxy and SN light, and observational selection effects. We show with simulations that intrinsic dependences on metallicity and age have distinct observational signatures, with metallicity mimicking the well-known step of SN Ia magnitudes across a host stellar mass of $\approx 10^{10} M_{\odot}$. We then demonstrate neural simulation-based inference of all model parameters from mock observations of ~16 000 SNae Ia and their hosts up to redshift 0.9. Our joint physics-based approach delivers robust and precise photometric redshifts (<0.01 median scatter) and improved cosmological constraints, unlocking the full power of photometric data and paving the way for an end-to-end simulation-based analysis pipeline in the LSST era.


Straggler-Resilient Federated Learning over A Hybrid Conventional and Pinching Antenna Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Leveraging pinching antennas in wireless network enabled federated learning (FL) can effectively mitigate t he common "straggler" issue in FL by dynamically establishing strong line-of-sight (LoS) links on demand. This letter pro poses a hybrid conventional and pinching antenna network (HCPAN) to significantly improve communication efficiency in the non - orthogonal multiple access (NOMA)-enabled FL system. With in this framework, a fuzzy logic-based client classification s cheme is first proposed to effectively balance clients' data contr ibutions and communication conditions. Given this classification, w e formulate a total time minimization problem to jointly opti mize pinching antenna placement and resource allocation. Due to the complexity of variable coupling and non-convexity, a de ep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based algorithm is develope d to effectively address this problem. Simulation results vali date the superiority of the proposed scheme in enhancing FL performa nce via the optimized deployment of pinching antenna.


Structured Neural Networks for Density Estimation and Causal Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Injecting structure into neural networks enables learning functions that satisfy invariances with respect to subsets of inputs. For instance, when learning generative models using neural networks, it is advantageous to encode the conditional independence structure of observed variables, often in the form of Bayesian networks. We propose the Structured Neural Network (StrNN), which injects structure through masking pathways in a neural network. The masks are designed via a novel relationship we explore between neural network architectures and binary matrix factorization, to ensure that the desired independencies are respected. We devise and study practical algorithms for this otherwise NP-hard design problem based on novel objectives that control the model architecture.