In this work, we offer a thorough analytical investigation into the role of shared hyperparameters in a hierarchical Bayesian model, examining their impact on information borrowing and posterior inference. Our approach is rooted in a non-asymptotic framework, where observations are drawn from a mixed-effects model, and a Gaussian distribution is assumed for the true effect generator. We consider a nested hierarchical prior distribution model to capture these effects and use the posterior means for Bayesian estimation. To quantify the effect of information borrowing, we propose an integrated risk measure relative to the true data-generating distribution. Our analysis reveals that the Bayes estimator for the model with a deeper hierarchy performs better, provided that the unknown random effects are correlated through a compound symmetric structure. Our work also identifies necessary and sufficient conditions for this model to outperform the one nested within it. We further obtain sufficient conditions when the correlation is perturbed. Our study suggests that the model with a deeper hierarchy tends to outperform the nested model unless the true data-generating distribution favors sufficiently independent groups. These findings have significant implications for Bayesian modeling, and we believe they will be of interest to researchers across a wide range of fields.

Fuzzy implication functions constitute fundamental operators in fuzzy logic systems, extending classical conditionals to manage uncertainty in logical inference. Among the extensive families of these operators, generalizations of the classical material implication have received considerable theoretical attention, particularly $(S,N)$-implications constructed from t-conorms and fuzzy negations, and their further generalizations to $(U,N)$-implications using disjunctive uninorms. Prior work has established characterization theorems for these families under the assumption that the fuzzy negation $N$ is continuous, ensuring uniqueness of representation. In this paper, we disprove this last fact for $(U,N)$-implications and we show that they do not necessarily possess a unique representation, even if the fuzzy negation is continuous. Further, we provide a comprehensive study of uniqueness conditions for both uninorms with continuous and non-continuous underlying functions. Our results offer important theoretical insights into the structural properties of these operators.

Fuzzy implication functions are one of the most important operators used in the fuzzy logic framework. While their flexible definition allows for diverse families with distinct properties, this variety needs a deeper theoretical understanding of their structural relationships. In this work, we focus on the study of construction methods, which employ different techniques to generate new fuzzy implication functions from existing ones. Particularly, we generalize the $F$-chain-based construction, recently introduced by Mesiar et al. to extend a method for constructing aggregation functions to the context of fuzzy implication functions. Our generalization employs collections of fuzzy implication functions rather than single ones, and uses two different increasing functions instead of a unique $F$-chain. We analyze property preservation under this construction and establish sufficient conditions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our generalized $F$-chain-based construction is a unifying framework for several existing methods. In particular, we show that various construction techniques, such as contraposition, aggregation, and generalized vertical/horizontal threshold methods, can be reformulated within our approach. This reveals structural similarities between seemingly distinct construction strategies and provides a cohesive perspective on fuzzy implication construction methods.

This paper considers the problem of enabling robots to navigate dynamic environments while following instructions. The challenge lies in the combinatorial nature of instruction specifications: each instruction can include multiple specifications, and the number of possible specification combinations grows exponentially as the robot's skill set expands. For example, "overtake the pedestrian while staying on the right side of the road" consists of two specifications: "overtake the pedestrian" and "walk on the right side of the road." To tackle this challenge, we propose ComposableNav, based on the intuition that following an instruction involves independently satisfying its constituent specifications, each corresponding to a distinct motion primitive. Using diffusion models, ComposableNav learns each primitive separately, then composes them in parallel at deployment time to satisfy novel combinations of specifications unseen in training. Additionally, to avoid the onerous need for demonstrations of individual motion primitives, we propose a two-stage training procedure: (1) supervised pre-training to learn a base diffusion model for dynamic navigation, and (2) reinforcement learning fine-tuning that molds the base model into different motion primitives. Through simulation and real-world experiments, we show that ComposableNav enables robots to follow instructions by generating trajectories that satisfy diverse and unseen combinations of specifications, significantly outperforming both non-compositional VLM-based policies and costmap composing baselines. Videos and additional materials can be found on the project page: https://amrl.cs.utexas.edu/ComposableNav/

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have shown promise in visual-textual reasoning, with Multimodal Chain-of-Thought (MCoT) prompting significantly enhancing interpretability. However, existing MCoT methods rely on rationale-rich datasets and largely focus on inter-object reasoning, overlooking the intra-object understanding crucial for image classification. To address this gap, we propose WISE, a Weak-supervision-guided Step-by-step Explanation method that augments any image classification dataset with MCoTs by reformulating the concept-based representations from Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) into concise, interpretable reasoning chains under weak supervision. Experiments across ten datasets show that our generated MCoTs not only improve interpretability by 37% but also lead to gains in classification accuracy when used to fine-tune MLLMs. Our work bridges concept-based interpretability and generative MCoT reasoning, providing a generalizable framework for enhancing MLLMs in fine-grained visual understanding.

In this paper, we present the first systematic comparison of Data Assimilation (DA) and Likelihood-Based Inference (LBI) in the context of Agent-Based Models (ABMs). These models generate observable time series driven by evolving, partially-latent microstates. Latent states need to be estimated to align simulations with real-world data -- a task traditionally addressed by DA, especially in continuous and equation-based models such as those used in weather forecasting. However, the nature of ABMs poses challenges for standard DA methods. Solving such issues requires adaptation of previous DA techniques, or ad-hoc alternatives such as LBI. DA approximates the likelihood in a model-agnostic way, making it broadly applicable but potentially less precise. In contrast, LBI provides more accurate state estimation by directly leveraging the model's likelihood, but at the cost of requiring a hand-crafted, model-specific likelihood function, which may be complex or infeasible to derive. We compare the two methods on the Bounded-Confidence Model, a well-known opinion dynamics ABM, where agents are affected only by others holding sufficiently similar opinions. We find that LBI better recovers latent agent-level opinions, even under model mis-specification, leading to improved individual-level forecasts. At the aggregate level, however, both methods perform comparably, and DA remains competitive across levels of aggregation under certain parameter settings. Our findings suggest that DA is well-suited for aggregate predictions, while LBI is preferable for agent-level inference.

Leveraging machine learning methods to solve constraint satisfaction problems has shown promising, but they are mostly limited to a static situation where the problem description is completely known and fixed from the beginning. In this work we present a new approach to constraint satisfaction and optimization in dynamically changing environments, particularly when variables in the problem are statistically independent. We frame it as a reinforcement learning problem and introduce a conditional policy generator by borrowing the idea of class conditional generative adversarial networks (GANs). Assuming that the problem includes both static and dynamic constraints, the former are used in a reward formulation to guide the policy training such that it learns to map to a probabilistic distribution of solutions satisfying static constraints from a noise prior, which is similar to a generator in GANs. On the other hand, dynamic constraints in the problem are encoded to different class labels and fed with the input noise. The policy is then simultaneously updated for maximum likelihood of correctly classifying given the dynamic conditions in a supervised manner. We empirically demonstrate a proof-of-principle experiment with a multi-modal constraint satisfaction problem and compare between unconditional and conditional cases.

To address the intermittency of renewable energy source (RES) generation, scenario forecasting offers a series of stochastic realizations for predictive objects with superior flexibility and direct views. Based on a long time-series perspective, this paper explores uncertainties in the realms of renewable power and deep learning. Then, an uncertainty-aware model is meticulously designed for renewable scenario forecasting, which leverages an attention mechanism and generative adversarial networks (GANs) to precisely capture complex spatial-temporal dynamics. To improve the interpretability of uncertain behavior in RES generation, Bayesian deep learning and adaptive instance normalization (AdaIN) are incorporated to simulate typical patterns and variations. Additionally, the integration of meteorological information, forecasts, and historical trajectories in the processing layer improves the synergistic forecasting capability for multiscale periodic regularities. Numerical experiments and case analyses demonstrate that the proposed approach provides an appropriate interpretation for renewable uncertainty representation, including both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and shows superior performance over state-of-the-art methods.

Successful teamwork depends on interpersonal dynamics, the ways in which individuals coordinate, influence, and adapt to one another over time. Existing measures of interpersonal dynamics, such as CRQA, correlation, Granger causality, and transfer entropy, typically capture only a single dimension: either the synchrony/coordination or the direction of influence between individuals. What is missing is a psychologically meaningful representation that unifies these dimensions and varies systematically with behavior. We propose the "context matrix" as one such representation. The context matrix, modeled within a linear dynamical system, has psychologically interpretable entries specifying how much each individual's current behavior is attributable to their own versus every other group member's past behaviors. Critically, these entries can be distilled into summary features that represent synchrony and directional influence. Evidence for the context matrix as psychologically meaningful is provided in two steps. First, we develop a sequential Bayesian model that infers context matrices from timeseries data and show that it accurately recovers them in noisy simulations. Second, applying the model to human eyetracking data, we demonstrate that summary features of the inferred context matrices capture expected task-based differences in interpersonal dynamics (or lack thereof), predict task accuracy in psychologically reasonable ways, and show some correspondence with existing measures (CRQA and Granger causality). We conclude by situating the context matrix within a broader agenda for modeling interpersonal dynamics in joint action.

Optimal transport (OT) has become a natural framework for guiding the probability flows. Yet, the majority of recent generative models assume trivial geometry (e.g., Euclidean) and rely on strong density-estimation assumptions, yielding trajectories that do not respect the true principles of optimality in the underlying manifold. We present Hamiltonian Optimal Transport Advection (HOTA), a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman based method that tackles the dual dynamical OT problem explicitly through Kantorovich potentials, enabling efficient and scalable trajectory optimization. Our approach effectively evades the need for explicit density modeling, performing even when the cost functionals are non-smooth. Empirically, HOTA outperforms all baselines in standard benchmarks, as well as in custom datasets with non-differentiable costs, both in terms of feasibility and optimality.