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 Uncertainty


Rethinking Losses for Diffusion Bridge Samplers

Neural Information Processing Systems

Diffusion bridges are a promising class of deep-learning methods for sampling from unnormalized distributions. Recent works show that the Log Variance (LV) loss consistently outperforms the reverse Kullback-Leibler (rKL) loss when using the reparametrization trick to compute rKL-gradients. While the on-policy LV loss yields identical gradients to the rKL loss when combined with the log-derivative trick for diffusion samplers with non-learnable forward processes, this equivalence does not hold for diffusion bridges or when diffusion coefficients are learned. Based on this insight we argue that for diffusion bridges the LV loss does not represent an optimization objective that can be motivated like the rKL loss via the data processing inequality. Our analysis shows that employing the rKL loss with the log-derivative trick (rKL-LD) does not only avoid these conceptual problems but also consistently outperforms the LV loss. Experimental results with different types of diffusion bridges on challenging benchmarks show that samplers trained with the rKL-LD loss achieve better performance. From a practical perspective we find that rKL-LD requires significantly less hyperparameter optimization and yields more stable training behavior.1


Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics with Score-Based Generative Models for Infinite-Dimensional Linear Bayesian Inverse Problems

Neural Information Processing Systems

Designing algorithms for solving high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems directly in infinite-dimensional function spaces--where such problems are naturally formulated--is crucial to ensure stability and convergence as the discretization of the underlying problem is refined. In this paper, we contribute to this line of work by analyzing a widely used sampler for linear inverse problems: Langevin dynamics driven by score-based generative models (SGMs) acting as priors, formulated directly in function space. Building on the theoretical framework for SGMs in Hilbert spaces, we give a rigorous definition of this sampler in the infinite-dimensional setting and derive, for the first time, error estimates that explicitly depend on the approximation error of the score. As a consequence, we obtain sufficient conditions for global convergence in Kullback-Leibler divergence on the underlying function space. Preventing numerical instabilities requires preconditioning of the Langevin algorithm and we prove the existence and the form of an optimal preconditioner. The preconditioner depends on both the score error and the forward operator and guarantees a uniform convergence rate across all posterior modes. Our analysis applies to both Gaussian and a general class of non-Gaussian priors. Finally, we present examples that illustrate and validate our theoretical findings.


Neural Correlates of Serial Dependence: Synaptic Short-term Plasticity Orchestrates Repulsion and Attraction

Neural Information Processing Systems

Serial dependence reflects how recent sensory history shapes current perception, producing two opposing biases: repulsion, where perception is repelled from recent stimuli, and attraction, where perception is drawn toward them. Repulsion typically occurs at the sensory perception stage, while attraction arises at the post-perception stage. To uncover the neural basis of these effects, we developed a two-layer continuous attractor neural network model incorporating synaptic short-term plasticity (STP). The lower layer, dominated by synaptic depression, models sensory processing and drives repulsion due to sustained neurotransmitter depletion. The higher layer, dominated by synaptic facilitation, models post-perception processing and drives attraction by sustained high neurotransmitter release probability. Our model successfully explains the serial dependence phenomena observed in the visual orientation judgment experiments, highlighting STP as the critical mechanism, with its time constants defining the temporal windows of repulsion and attraction. Furthermore, the model provides a neural foundation for the Bayesian interpretation of serial dependence. This study advances our understanding of how the neural system leverages STP to balance sensitivity in sensory perception with stability in post-perceptual cognition.


Learning Latent Variable Models via Jarzynski-adjusted Langevin Algorithm

Neural Information Processing Systems

We utilise a sampler originating from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, termed here Jarzynski-adjusted Langevin algorithm (JALA), to build statistical estimation methods in latent variable models. We achieve this by leveraging Jarzynski's equality and developing algorithms based on a weighted version of the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) with recursively updated weights. Adapting this for latent variable models, we develop a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method that provides the maximum marginal likelihood estimate of the parameters, termed JALA-EM. Under suitable regularity assumptions on the marginal likelihood, we provide a nonasymptotic analysis of the JALA-EM scheme implemented with stochastic gradient descent and show that it provably converges to the maximum marginal likelihood estimate. We demonstrate the performance of JALA-EM on a variety of latent variable models and show that it performs comparably to existing methods in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. Importantly, the ability to recursively estimate marginal likelihoods--an uncommon feature among scalable methods--makes our approach particularly suited for model selection, which we validate through dedicated experiments.


ฮจ-Sampler: Initial Particle Sampling for SMC-Based Inference-Time Reward Alignment in Score Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce ฮจ-SAMPLER, an SMC-based framework incorporating pCNL-based initial particle sampling for effective inference-time reward alignment with a score-based generative model. Inference-time reward alignment with score-based generative models has recently gained significant traction, following a broader paradigm shift from pre-training to post-training optimization. At the core of this trend is the application of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to the denoising process. However, existing methods typically initialize particles from the Gaussian prior, which inadequately captures reward-relevant regions and results in reduced sampling efficiency. We demonstrate that initializing from the reward-aware posterior significantly improves alignment performance. To enable posterior sampling in high-dimensional latent spaces, we introduce the preconditioned Crank-Nicolson Langevin (pCNL) algorithm, which combines dimension-robust proposals with gradient-informed dynamics. This approach enables efficient and scalable posterior sampling and consistently improves performance across various reward alignment tasks, including layout-to-image generation, quantity-aware generation, and aesthetic-preference generation, as demonstrated in our experiments.


Latent Chain-of-Thought for Visual Reasoning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is critical for improving the interpretability and reliability of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs). However, existing training algorithms such as SFT, PPO, and GRPO may not generalize well across unseen reasoning tasks and heavily rely on a biased reward model. To address this challenge, we reformulate reasoning in LVLMs as posterior inference and propose a scalable training algorithm based on amortized variational inference. By leveraging diversity-seeking reinforcement learning algorithms, we introduce a novel sparse reward function for token-level learning signals that encourage diverse, high-likelihood latent CoT, overcoming deterministic sampling limitations and avoiding reward hacking. Additionally, we implement a Bayesian inference-scaling strategy that replaces costly Best-of-N and Beam Search with a marginal likelihood to efficiently rank optimal rationales and answers. We empirically demonstrate that the proposed method enhances the state-of-the-art LVLMs on seven reasoning benchmarks, in terms of effectiveness, generalization, and interpretability.


Epistemic Uncertainty for Generated Image Detection

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce a novel framework for AI-generated image detection through epistemic uncertainty, aiming to address critical security concerns in the era of generative models. Our key insight stems from the observation that distributional discrepancies between training and testing data manifest distinctively in the epistemic uncertainty space of machine learning models. In this context, the distribution shift between natural and generated images leads to elevated epistemic uncertainty in models trained on natural images when evaluating generated ones. Hence, we exploit this phenomenon by using epistemic uncertainty as a proxy for detecting generated images. This converts the challenge of generated image detection into the problem of uncertainty estimation, underscoring the generalization performance of the model used for uncertainty estimation. Fortunately, advanced large-scale vision models pre-trained on extensive natural images have shown excellent generalization performance for various scenarios. Thus, we utilize these pre-trained models to estimate the epistemic uncertainty of images and flag those with high uncertainty as generated. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/tmlr-group/WePe.


Data Mixture Optimization: AMulti-fidelity Multi-scale Bayesian Framework

Neural Information Processing Systems

Careful curation of data sources can significantly improve the performance of LLM pre-training, but predominant approaches rely heavily on intuition or costly trial-and-error, making them difficult to generalize across different data domains and downstream tasks. Although scaling laws can provide a principled and general approach for data curation, standard deterministic extrapolation from small-scale experiments to larger scales requires strong assumptions on the reliability of such extrapolation, whose brittleness has been highlighted in prior works. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic extrapolation framework for data mixture optimization that avoids rigid assumptions and explicitly models the uncertainty in performance across decision variables. We formulate data curation as a sequential decisionmaking problem--multi-fidelity, multi-scale Bayesian optimization--where {data mixtures, model scale, training steps}are adaptively selected to balance training cost and potential information gain. Our framework naturally gives rise to algorithm prototypes that leverage noisy information from inexpensive experiments to systematically inform costly training decisions. To accelerate methodological progress, we build a simulator based on 472 language model pre-training runs with varying data compositions from the SlimPajama dataset. We observe that even simple kernels and acquisition functions can enable principled decisions across training models from 20M to 1B parameters and achieve 2.6x and 3.3x speedups compared to multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization and random search baselines. Taken together, our framework underscores potential efficiency gains achievable by developing principled and transferable data mixture optimization methods.


ROOT: Rethinking Offline Optimization as Distributional Translation via Probabilistic Bridge

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper studies the black-box optimization task which aims to find the maxima of a black-box function using a static set of its observed input-output pairs. This is often achieved via learning and optimizing a surrogate function with that offline data. Alternatively, it can also be framed as an inverse modeling task that maps a desired performance to potential input candidates that achieve it. Both approaches are constrained by the limited amount of offline data. To mitigate this limitation, we introduce a new perspective that casts offline optimization as a distributional translation task.


Beyond Masked and Unmasked Discrete Diffusion Models via Partial Masking

Neural Information Processing Systems

Masked diffusion models (MDM) are powerful generative models for discrete data that generate samples by progressively unmasking tokens in a sequence. Each token can take one of two states: masked or unmasked. We observe that token sequences often remain unchanged between consecutive sampling steps; consequently, the model repeatedly processes identical inputs, leading to redundant computation. To address this inefficiency, we propose the Partial masking scheme (Prime), which augments MDM by allowing tokens to take intermediate states interpolated between the masked and unmasked states. This design enables the model to make predictions based on partially observed token information, and facilitates a fine-grained denoising process. We derive a variational training objective and introduce a simple architectural design to accommodate intermediate-state inputs. Our method demonstrates superior performance across a diverse set of generative modeling tasks. On text data, it achieves a perplexity of 15.36 on OpenWebText, outperforming previous MDM (21.52), autoregressive models (17.54), and their hybrid variants (17.58), without relying on an autoregressive formulation.