Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian inference for average treatment effects from observational data, which is a challenging problem due to the missing counterfactuals and selection bias. Working in the standard potential outcomes framework, we propose a data-driven modification to an arbitrary (nonparametric) prior based on the propensity score that corrects for the first-order posterior bias, thereby improving performance. We illustrate our method for Gaussian process (GP) priors using (semi-)synthetic data. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvement in both estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to the unmodified GP, rendering our approach highly competitive with the state-of-the-art.

Estimation of F. We use the widely used'Bayesian bootstrap' (BB) since (1) it is computationally much faster (you

Vulnerability to adversarial attacks is one of the principal hurdles to the adoption of deep learning in safety-critical applications. Despite significant efforts, both practical and theoretical, the problem remains open.

We develop new models and algorithms for learning the temporal dynamics of the topic polytopes and related geometric objects that arise in topic model based inference. Our model is nonparametric Bayesian and the corresponding inference algorithm is able to discover new topics as the time progresses. By exploiting the connection between the modeling of topic polytope evolution, Beta-Bernoulli process and the Hungarian matching algorithm, our method is shown to be several orders of magnitude faster than existing topic modeling approaches, as demonstrated by experiments working with several million documents in under two dozens of minutes.

Structured prediction can be thought of as a simultaneous prediction of multiple labels. This is often done by maximizing a score function on the space of labels, which decomposes as a sum of pairwise and unary potentials. The above is naturally modeled with a graph, where edges and vertices are related to pairwise and unary potentials, respectively. We consider the generative process proposed by Globerson et al. (2015) and apply it to general connected graphs. We analyze the structural conditions of the graph that allow for the exact recovery of the labels. Our results show that exact recovery is possible and achievable in polynomial time for a large class of graphs. In particular, we show that graphs that are bad expanders can be exactly recovered by adding small edge perturbations coming from the Erdős-Rényi model. Finally, as a byproduct of our analysis, we provide an extension of Cheeger's inequality.

Modern variational inference (VI) uses stochastic gradients to avoid intractable expectations, enabling large-scale probabilistic inference in complex models. VI posits a family of approximating distributions q and then finds the member of that family that is closest to the exact posterior p. Traditionally, VI algorithms minimize the "exclusive Kullback-Leibler (KL)" KL (q k p), often for computational convenience. Recent research, however, has also focused on the "inclusive KL" KL (p k q), which has good statistical properties that makes it more appropriate for certain inference problems. This paper develops a simple algorithm for reliably minimizing the inclusive KL using stochastic gradients with vanishing bias. This method, which we call Markovian score climbing (MSC), converges to a local optimum of the inclusive KL. It does not suffer from the systematic errors inherent in existing methods, such as Reweighted Wake-Sleep and Neural Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo, which lead to bias in their final estimates. We illustrate convergence on a toy model and demonstrate the utility of MSC on Bayesian probit regression for classification as well as a stochastic volatility model for financial data.

A fundamental difficulty of causal learning is that causal models can generally not be fully identified based on observational data only. Interventional data, that is, data originating from different experimental environments, improves identifiability. However, the improvement depends critically on the target and nature of the interventions carried out in each experiment. Since in real applications experiments tend to be costly, there is a need to perform the right interventions such that as few as possible are required. In this work we propose a new active learning (i.e.

Interest in this problem derives from applications in machine learning, Bayesian statistics, and optimization where, rather than obtaining all the observations at once, one constantly acquires new data, and must continuously update the distribution.

A multi-layer deep Gaussian process (DGP) model is a hierarchical composition of GP models with a greater expressive power. Exact DGP inference is intractable, which has motivated the recent development of deterministic and stochastic approximation methods. Unfortunately, the deterministic approximation methods yield a biased posterior belief while the stochastic one is computationally costly. This paper presents an implicit posterior variational inference (IPVI) framework for DGPs that can ideally recover an unbiased posterior belief and still preserve time efficiency. Inspired by generative adversarial networks, our IPVI framework achieves this by casting the DGP inference problem as a two-player game in which a Nash equilibrium, interestingly, coincides with an unbiased posterior belief. This consequently inspires us to devise a best-response dynamics algorithm to search for a Nash equilibrium (i.e., an unbiased posterior belief). Empirical evaluation shows that IPVI outperforms the state-of-the-art approximation methods for DGPs.

We study the problem of training diffusion models to sample from a distribution with a given unnormalized density or energy function.