Uncertainty
A Semantic Generalization of Shannon's Information Theory and Applications
Does semantic communication require a semantic information theory parallel to Shannon's information theory, or can Shannon's work be generalized for semantic communication? This paper advocates for the latter and introduces a semantic generalization of Shannon's information theory (G theory for short). The core idea is to replace the distortion constraint with the semantic constraint, achieved by utilizing a set of truth functions as a semantic channel. These truth functions enable the expressions of semantic distortion, semantic information measures, and semantic information loss. Notably, the maximum semantic information criterion is equivalent to the maximum likelihood criterion and similar to the Regularized Least Squares criterion. This paper shows G theory's applications to daily and electronic semantic communication, machine learning, constraint control, Bayesian confirmation, portfolio theory, and information value. The improvements in machine learning methods involve multilabel learning and classification, maximum mutual information classification, mixture models, and solving latent variables. Furthermore, insights from statistical physics are discussed: Shannon information is similar to free energy; semantic information to free energy in local equilibrium systems; and information efficiency to the efficiency of free energy in performing work. The paper also proposes refining Friston's minimum free energy principle into the maximum information efficiency principle. Lastly, it compares G theory with other semantic information theories and discusses its limitation in representing the semantics of complex data.
Symmetries in PAC-Bayesian Learning
Symmetries are known to improve the empirical performance of machine learning models, yet theoretical guarantees explaining these gains remain limited. Prior work has focused mainly on compact group symmetries and often assumes that the data distribution itself is invariant, an assumption rarely satisfied in real-world applications. In this work, we extend generalization guarantees to the broader setting of non-compact symmetries, such as translations and to non-invariant data distributions. Building on the PAC-Bayes framework, we adapt and tighten existing bounds, demonstrating the approach on McAllester's PAC-Bayes bound while showing that it applies to a wide range of PAC-Bayes bounds. We validate our theory with experiments on a rotated MNIST dataset with a non-uniform rotation group, where the derived guarantees not only hold but also improve upon prior results. These findings provide theoretical evidence that, for symmetric data, symmetric models are preferable beyond the narrow setting of compact groups and invariant distributions, opening the way to a more general understanding of symmetries in machine learning.
Sparse Transformer Architectures via Regularized Wasserstein Proximal Operator with $L_1$ Prior
Han, Fuqun, Osher, Stanley, Li, Wuchen
Modern generative models, such as neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs) [4], transformers [25], and diffusion models [22], have demonstrated remarkable ability to learn and generate samples from complex, high-dimensional probability distributions. These architectures have achieved broad success in scientific computing, image processing, and data science, offering scalable frameworks for data-driven modeling. However, training and sampling in such spaces remain expensive and highly sensitive to architectural and optimization choices. Despite these advances, the curse of dimensionality continues to present a fundamental challenge in many real-world applications. Fortunately, numerous problems in scientific computing exhibit intrinsic structures, such as sparsity, low-rank representations, or approximate invariances, that can be interpreted as prior information about the underlying data or operators. Leveraging such priors within generative models offers a promising avenue to improve both computational efficiency and generalization. A classical way to incorporate prior information, such as sparsity or piecewise regularity, is through Bayesian modeling, where the posterior combines a prior distribution encoding structural knowledge with a likelihood function derived from observations.
Semi-Supervised Regression with Heteroscedastic Pseudo-Labels
Sun, Xueqing, Wang, Renzhen, Wang, Quanziang, Wu, Yichen, Jia, Xixi, Meng, Deyu
Pseudo-labeling is a commonly used paradigm in semi-supervised learning, yet its application to semi-supervised regression (SSR) remains relatively under-explored. Unlike classification, where pseudo-labels are discrete and confidence-based filtering is effective, SSR involves continuous outputs with heteroscedastic noise, making it challenging to assess pseudo-label reliability. As a result, naive pseudo-labeling can lead to error accumulation and overfitting to incorrect labels. To address this, we propose an uncertainty-aware pseudo-labeling framework that dynamically adjusts pseudo-label influence from a bi-level optimization perspective. By jointly minimizing empirical risk over all data and optimizing uncertainty estimates to enhance generalization on labeled data, our method effectively mitigates the impact of unreliable pseudo-labels. We provide theoretical insights and extensive experiments to validate our approach across various benchmark SSR datasets, and the results demonstrate superior robustness and performance compared to existing methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/sxq/Heteroscedastic-Pseudo-Labels.
Recursive Inference for Heterogeneous Multi-Output GP State-Space Models with Arbitrary Moment Matching
Zheng, Tengjie, Mei, Jilan, Wu, Di, Cheng, Lin, Gong, Shengping
Accurate learning of system dynamics is becoming increasingly crucial for advanced control and decision-making in engineering. However, real-world systems often exhibit multiple channels and highly nonlinear transition dynamics, challenging traditional modeling methods. To enable online learning for these systems, this paper formulates the system as Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) and develops a recursive learning method. The main contributions are threefold. First, a heterogeneous multi-output kernel is designed, allowing each output dimension to adopt distinct kernel types, hyperparameters, and input variables, improving expressiveness in multi-dimensional dynamics learning. Second, an inducing-point management algorithm enhances computational efficiency through independent selection and pruning for each output dimension. Third, a unified recursive inference framework for GPSSMs is derived, supporting general moment matching approaches, including the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), and assumed density filtering (ADF), enabling accurate learning under strong nonlinearity and significant noise. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed method matches the accuracy of SOTA offline GPSSMs with only 1/100 of the runtime, and surpasses SOTA online GPSSMs by around 70% in accuracy under heavy noise while using only 1/20 of the runtime.
Particle Dynamics for Latent-Variable Energy-Based Models
Tang, Shiqin, Zhuang, Shuxin, Feng, Rong, Yu, Runsheng, Li, Hongzong, Zhang, Youzhi
Latent-variable energy-based models (LV-EBMs) assign a single normalized energy to joint pairs of observed data and latent variables, offering expressive generative modeling while capturing hidden structure. We recast maximum-likelihood training as a saddle problem over distributions on the latent and joint manifolds and view the inner updates as coupled Wasserstein gradient flows. The resulting algorithm alternates overdamped Langevin updates for a joint negative pool and for conditional latent particles with stochastic parameter ascent, requiring no discriminator or auxiliary networks. We prove existence and convergence under standard smoothness and dissi-pativity assumptions, with decay rates in KL divergence and Wasserstein-2 distance. The saddle-point view further yields an ELBO strictly tighter than bounds obtained with restricted amortized posteriors. Our method is evaluated on numerical approximations of physical systems and performs competitively against comparable approaches.
Clarifying the Ti-V Phase Diagram Using First-Principles Calculations and Bayesian Learning
Miryashkin, Timofei, Klimanova, Olga, Shapeev, Alexander
Conflicting experiments disagree on whether the titanium-vanadium (Ti-V) binary alloy exhibits a body-centred cubic (BCC) miscibility gap or remains completely soluble. A leading hypothesis attributes the miscibility gap to oxygen contamination during alloy preparation. To resolve this disagreement, we use an ab initio + machine-learning workflow that couples an actively-trained Moment Tensor Potential with Bayesian inference of free energy surface. This workflow enables construction of the Ti-V phase diagram across the full composition range with systematically reduced statistical and finite-size errors. The resulting diagram reproduces all experimental features, demonstrating the robustness of our approach, and clearly favors the variant with a BCC miscibility gap terminating at T = 980 K and c = 0.67. Because our simulations model a perfectly oxygen-free Ti-V system, the observed gap cannot originate from impurity effects, in contrast to recent CALPHAD reassessments.
Bayesian Inference for PDE-based Inverse Problems using the Optimization of a Discrete Loss
Amoudruz, Lucas, Litvinov, Sergey, Papadimitriou, Costas, Koumoutsakos, Petros
Inverse problems are ubiquitous in science, engineering, and medicine, in particular for problems where observations provide only indirect or incomplete information about a system [1]. Inverse problems are central in a wide range of applications such as flow field reconstruction [2, 3, 4], data assimilation [5], medical imaging [6, 7], and parameters estimation of material properties [8, 9, 10]. A particularly challenging class of inverse problems arises when the forward model is governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) or partial differential equations (PDEs) [11]. Incorporating physical knowledge through this approach reduces the space of possible solutions, avoiding the need for arbitrary regularization as is often the case in inverse problems [12, 13, 14]. However, this approach can suffer from the high dimensionality of the problem, stiffness, noisy measurements, and sensitivity to parameters. In particular, quantifying the uncertainties of solutions is challenging with standard techniques for inverse PDE problems such as Bayesian inference [15, 14], variational methods [16], ensemble Kalman methods [17], and adjoint-based optimization [18], which can be limited with issues of scalability, robustness, and computational cost. In parallel, operator learning approaches based on DeepONets [19], Fourier neural operators [20], and graph neural networks [21, 22] have been extended to inverse problems and uncertainty quantification [23, 24, 25]. Similar Bayesian techniques rely on training data to build prior knowledge [26]. However, the application of these operator learning techniques to large-scale problems is limited by the cost of their training and the difficulty of generating sufficient high-fidelity data.
ASBI: Leveraging Informative Real-World Data for Active Black-Box Simulator Tuning
Kim, Gahee, Matsubara, Takamitsu
Black-box simulators are widely used in robotics, but optimizing their parameters remains challenging due to inaccessible likelihoods. Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) tackles this issue using simulation-driven approaches, estimating the posterior from offline real observations and forward simulations. However, in black-box scenarios, preparing observations that contain sufficient information for parameter estimation is difficult due to the unknown relationship between parameters and observations. In this work, we present Active Simulation-Based Inference (ASBI), a parameter estimation framework that uses robots to actively collect real-world online data to achieve accurate black-box simulator tuning. Our framework optimizes robot actions to collect informative observations by maximizing information gain, which is defined as the expected reduction in Shannon entropy between the posterior and the prior. While calculating information gain requires the likelihood, which is inaccessible in black-box simulators, our method solves this problem by leveraging Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE), which leverages a neural network to learn the posterior estimator. Three simulation experiments quantitatively verify that our method achieves accurate parameter estimation, with posteriors sharply concentrated around the true parameters. Moreover, we show a practical application using a real robot to estimate the simulation parameters of cubic particles corresponding to two real objects, beads and gravel, with a bucket pouring action.
A simple mean field model of feature learning
Göring, Niclas, Mingard, Chris, Nam, Yoonsoo, Louis, Ard
Feature learning (FL), where neural networks adapt their internal representations during training, remains poorly understood. Using methods from statistical physics, we derive a tractable, self-consistent mean-field (MF) theory for the Bayesian posterior of two-layer non-linear networks trained with stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD). At infinite width, this theory reduces to kernel ridge regression, but at finite width it predicts a symmetry breaking phase transition where networks abruptly align with target functions. While the basic MF theory provides theoretical insight into the emergence of FL in the finite-width regime, semi-quantitatively predicting the onset of FL with noise or sample size, it substantially underestimates the improvements in generalisation after the transition. We trace this discrepancy to a key mechanism absent from the plain MF description: \textit{self-reinforcing input feature selection}. Incorporating this mechanism into the MF theory allows us to quantitatively match the learning curves of SGLD-trained networks and provides mechanistic insight into FL.