The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics.

Detecting symmetry from data is a fundamental problem in signal analysis, providing insight into underlying structure and constraints. When data emerge as trajectories of dynamical systems, symmetries encode structural properties of the dynamics that enable model reduction, principled comparison across conditions, and detection of regime changes. While recent optimal transport methods provide practical tools for data-driven symmetry detection in this setting, they rely on deterministic thresholds and lack uncertainty quantification, limiting robustness to noise and ability to resolve hierarchical symmetry structures. We present a Bayesian framework that formulates symmetry detection as probabilistic model selection over a lattice of candidate subgroups, using a Gibbs posterior constructed from Wasserstein distances between observed data and group-transformed copies. We establish three theoretical guarantees: $(i)$ a Bayesian Occam's razor favoring minimal symmetry consistent with data, $(ii)$ conjugation equivariance ensuring frame-independence, and $(iii)$ stability bounds under perturbations for robustness to noise. Posterior inference is performed via Metropolis-Hastings sampling and numerical experiments on equivariant dynamical systems and synthetic point clouds demonstrate accurate symmetry recovery under high noise and small sample sizes. An application to human gait dynamics reveals symmetry changes induced by mechanical constraints, demonstrating the framework's utility for statistical inference in biomechanical and dynamical systems.

Timely and reliable decision-making is vital for flood emergency response, yet it remains severely hindered by limited and imprecise situational awareness due to various budget and data accessibility constraints. Traditional flood management systems often rely on in-situ sensors to calibrate remote sensing-based large-scale flood depth forecasting models, and further take flood depth estimates to optimize flood response decisions. However, these approaches often take fixed, decision task-agnostic strategies to decide where to put in-situ sensors (e.g., maximize overall information gain) and train flood forecasting models (e.g., minimize average forecasting errors), but overlook that systems with the same sensing gain and average forecasting errors may lead to distinct decisions. To address this, we introduce a novel decision-focused framework that strategically selects locations for in-situ sensor placement and optimize spatio-temporal flood forecasting models to optimize downstream flood response decision regrets. Our end-to-end pipeline integrates four components: a contextual scoring network, a differentiable sensor selection module under hard budget constraints, a spatio-temporal flood reconstruction and forecasting model, and a differentiable decision layer tailored to task-specific objectives. Central to our approach is the incorporation of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (I-MLE) to enable gradient-based learning over discrete sensor configurations, and probabilistic decision heads to enable differentiable approximation to various constrained disaster response tasks.

Sampling multiple responses is a common way to improve LLM output quality, but it comes at the cost of additional computation. The key challenge is deciding when to stop generating new samples to balance accuracy gains against efficiency. To address this, we introduce BEACON (Bayesian Efficient Adaptive Criterion for Optimal N-stopping), a principled adaptive sampling framework grounded in Sequential Search with Bayesian Learning. BEACON sequentially generates responses from the policy LLM, updates posterior belief over reward distributions in real time without further training, and determines when to stop by weighing expected gains against computational cost. Sampling terminates once the marginal utility of further exploration no longer justifies the expense. We establish both theoretical optimality guarantees and practical tractability, and show empirically that BEACON reduces average sampling by up to 80% while maintaining response quality. We further demonstrate BEACON's utility for cost-efficient preference data generation and outline practical extensions, offering actionable insights for future researchers.

Reinforcement Learning with V erifiable Reward (RL VR) has significantly advanced the complex reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, it struggles to break through the inherent capability boundaries of the base LLM, due to its essentially on-policy strategy coupled with LLM's immense action space and sparse reward. Critically, RL VR can lead to the capability boundary collapse, narrowing the LLM's problem-solving scope. To address this problem, we propose RL-PLUS, a novel hybrid-policy optimization approach for LLMs that synergizes internal exploitation with external data to achieve stronger reasoning capabilities and surpass the boundaries of base models. RL-PLUS integrates two core components, i.e., Multiple Importance Sampling to address distributional mismatch from external data, and Exploration-Based Advantage Function to guide the model towards high-value, unexplored reasoning paths. We provide both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments to demonstrate the superiority and gen-eralizability of our approach. Compared with existing RL VR methods, RL-PLUS achieves 1) state-of-the-art performance on six math reasoning benchmarks; 2) superior performance on six out-of-distribution reasoning tasks; 3) consistent and significant gains across diverse model families, with average relative improvements up to 69.2%. Moreover, the analysis of Pass@k curves indicates that RL-PLUS effectively resolves the capability boundary collapse problem.

Sim2Real aims at training policies in high-fidelity simulation environments and effectively transferring them to the real world. Despite the developments of accurate simulators and Sim2Real RL approaches, the policies trained purely in simulation often suffer significant performance drops when deployed in real environments. This drop is referred to as the Sim2Real performance gap. Current Sim2Real RL methods optimize the simulator accuracy and variability as proxies for real-world performance. However, these metrics do not necessarily correlate with the real-world performance of the policy as established theoretically and empirically in the literature. We propose a novel framework to address this issue by directly adapting the simulator parameters based on real-world performance. We frame this problem as a bi-level RL framework: the inner-level RL trains a policy purely in simulation, and the outer-level RL adapts the simulation model and in-sim reward parameters to maximize real-world performance of the in-sim policy. We derive and validate in simple examples the mathematical tools needed to develop bi-level RL algorithms that close the Sim2Real performance gap.

Mobile edge crowdsensing (MECS) systems continuously generate and transmit user data in dynamic, resource-constrained environments, exposing users to significant privacy threats. In practice, many privacy-preserving mechanisms build on differential privacy (DP). However, static DP mechanisms often fail to adapt to evolving risks, for example, shifts in adversarial capabilities, resource constraints and task requirements, resulting in either excessive noise or inadequate protection. To address this challenge, we propose ALPINE, a lightweight, adaptive framework that empowers terminal devices to autonomously adjust differential privacy levels in real time. ALPINE operates as a closed-loop control system consisting of four modules: dynamic risk perception, privacy decision via twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient (TD3), local privacy execution and performance verification from edge nodes. Based on environmental risk assessments, we design a reward function that balances privacy gains, data utility and energy cost, guiding the TD3 agent to adaptively tune noise magnitude across diverse risk scenarios and achieve a dynamic equilibrium among privacy, utility and cost. Both the collaborative risk model and pretrained TD3-based agent are designed for low-overhead deployment. Extensive theoretical analysis and real-world simulations demonstrate that ALPINE effectively mitigates inference attacks while preserving utility and cost, making it practical for large-scale edge applications.

Unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD) plays a crucial role in neuroimaging for identifying deviations from healthy subject data and thus facilitating the diagnosis of neurological disorders. In this work, we focus on Bayesian flow networks (BFNs), a novel class of generative models, which have not yet been applied to medical imaging or anomaly detection. BFNs combine the strength of diffusion frameworks and Bayesian inference. We introduce AnoBFN, an extension of BFNs for UAD, designed to: i) perform conditional image generation under high levels of spatially correlated noise, and ii) preserve subject specificity by incorporating a recursive feedback from the input image throughout the generative process. We evaluate AnoBFN on the challenging task of Alzheimer's disease-related anomaly detection in FDG PET images. Our approach outperforms other state-of-the-art methods based on V AEs ( β -VAE), GANs (f-AnoGAN), and diffusion models (AnoDDPM), demonstrating its effectiveness at detecting anomalies while reducing false positive rates.

In many scientific and engineering fields, where acquiring high-quality data is expensive--such as medical imaging, environmental monitoring, and remote sensing--strategic sampling of unobserved regions based on prior observations is crucial for maximizing discovery rates within a constrained budget. The rise of powerful generative models, such as diffusion models, has enabled active target discovery in partially observable environments by leveraging learned priors--probabilistic representations that capture underlying structure from data. With guidance from sequentially gathered task-specific observations, these models can progressively refine exploration and efficiently direct queries toward promising regions. However, in domains where learning a strong prior is infeasible due to extremely limited data or high sampling cost (such as rare species discovery, diagnostics for emerging diseases, etc.), these methods struggle to generalize. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel approach that enables effective active target discovery even in settings with uninformative priors, ensuring robust exploration and adaptability in complex real-world scenarios. Our framework is theoretically principled and draws inspiration from neuroscience to guide its design. Unlike black-box policies, our approach is inherently interpretable, providing clear insights into decision-making. Furthermore, it guarantees a strong, monotonic improvement in prior estimates with each new observation, leading to increasingly accurate sampling and reinforcing both reliability and adaptability in dynamic settings. Through comprehensive experiments and ablation studies across various domains, including species distribution modeling and remote sensing, we demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms baseline approaches.

Random permutation set (RPS) is a new formalism for reasoning with uncertainty involving order information. Measuring the conflict between two pieces of evidence represented by permutation mass functions remains an urgent research topic in order-structured uncertain information fusion. In this paper, a detailed analysis of conflicts in RPS is carried out from two different perspectives: random finite set (RFS) and Dempster-Shafer theory (DST). Starting from the observation of permutations, we first define an inconsistency measure between permutations inspired by the rank-biased overlap(RBO) measure and further propose a non-overlap-based conflict measure method for RPSs. This paper regards RPS theory (RPST) as an extension of DST. The order information newly added in focal sets indicates qualitative propensity, characterized by top-ranked elements occupying a more critical position. Some numerical examples are used to demonstrate the behavior and properties of the proposed conflict measure. The proposed method not only has the natural top-weightedness property and can effectively measure the conflict between RPSs from the DST view but also provides decision-makers with a flexible selection of weights, parameters, and truncated depths.