This paper presents a methodological approach to financial time series analysis by combining causal discovery and uncertainty-aware forecasting. As a case study, we focus on four key U.S. macroeconomic indicators -- GDP, economic growth, inflation, and unemployment -- and we apply the LPCMCI framework with Gaussian Process Distance Correlation (GPDC) to uncover dynamic causal relationships in quarterly data from 1970 to 2021. Our results reveal a robust unidirectional causal link from economic growth to GDP and highlight the limited connectivity of inflation, suggesting the influence of latent factors. Unemployment exhibits strong autore-gressive dependence, motivating its use as a case study for probabilistic forecasting. Leveraging the Chronos framework, a large language model trained for time series, we perform zero-shot predictions on unemployment. This approach delivers accurate forecasts one and two quarters ahead, without requiring task-specific training. Crucially, the model's uncertainty-aware predictions yield 90% confidence intervals, enabling effective anomaly detection through statistically principled deviation analysis. This study demonstrates the value of combining causal structure learning with probabilistic language models to inform economic policy and enhance forecasting robustness.

We propose KOALA++, a scalable Kalman-based optimization algorithm that explicitly models structured gradient uncertainty in neural network training. Unlike second-order methods, which rely on expensive second order gradient calculation, our method directly estimates the parameter covariance matrix by recursively updating compact gradient covariance products. This design improves upon the original KOALA framework that assumed diagonal covariance by implicitly capturing richer uncertainty structure without storing the full covariance matrix and avoiding large matrix inversions. Across diverse tasks, including image classification and language modeling, KOALA++ achieves accuracy on par or better than state-of-the-art first- and second-order optimizers while maintaining the efficiency of first-order methods.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Looped Transformers have been shown to empirically improve performance on reasoning tasks and to theoretically enhance expressivity by recursively increasing the number of computational steps. However, their comparative capabilities are still not well understood. In this paper, we provide a formal analysis of their respective strengths and limitations. We show that Looped Transformers can efficiently simulate parallel computations for deterministic tasks, which we formalize as evaluation over directed acyclic graphs. In contrast, CoT with stochastic decoding excels at approximate inference for compositional structures, namely self-reducible problems. These separations suggest the tasks for which depth-driven recursion is more suitable, thereby offering practical cues for choosing between reasoning paradigms.

Listwise reranking with large language models (LLMs) enhances top-ranked results in retrieval-based applications. Due to the limit in context size and high inference cost of long context, reranking is typically performed over a fixed size of small subsets, with the final ranking aggregated from these partial results. This fixed computation disregards query difficulty and document distribution, leading to inefficiencies. We propose AcuRank, an adaptive reranking framework that dynamically adjusts both the amount and target of computation based on uncertainty estimates over document relevance. Using a Bayesian TrueSkill model, we iteratively refine relevance estimates until reaching sufficient confidence levels, and our explicit modeling of ranking uncertainty enables principled control over reranking behavior and avoids unnecessary updates to confident predictions. Results on the TREC-DL and BEIR benchmarks show that our method consistently achieves a superior accuracy-efficiency trade-off and scales better with compute than fixed-computation baselines. These results highlight the effectiveness and generalizability of our method across diverse retrieval tasks and LLM-based reranking models.

Generative flow networks are able to sample, via sequential construction, high-reward, complex objects according to a reward function. However, such reward functions are often estimated approximately from noisy data, leading to epistemic uncertainty in the learnt policy. We present an approach to quantify this uncertainty by constructing a surrogate model composed of a polynomial chaos expansion, fit on a small ensemble of trained flow networks. This model learns the relationship between reward functions, parametrised in a low-dimensional space, and the probability distributions over actions at each step along a trajectory of the flow network. The surrogate model can then be used for inexpensive Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the uncertainty in the policy given uncertain rewards. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a discrete and continuous grid-world, symbolic regression, and a Bayesian structure learning task.

Real-world data is frequently noisy and ambiguous. In crowd-sourcing, for example, human annotators may assign conflicting class labels to the same instances. Partial-label learning (PLL) addresses this challenge by training classifiers when each instance is associated with a set of candidate labels, only one of which is correct. While early PLL methods approximate the true label posterior, they are often computationally intensive. Recent deep learning approaches improve scalability but rely on surrogate losses and heuristic label refinement. We introduce a novel probabilistic framework that directly approximates the posterior distribution over true labels using amortized variational inference. Our method employs neural networks to predict variational parameters from input data, enabling efficient inference. This approach combines the expressiveness of deep learning with the rigor of probabilistic modeling, while remaining architecture-agnostic. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in both accuracy and efficiency.

Online advertising platforms use automated auctions to connect advertisers with potential customers, requiring effective bidding strategies to maximize profits. Accurate ad impact estimation requires considering three key factors: delayed and long-term effects, cumulative ad impacts such as reinforcement or fatigue, and customer heterogeneity. However, these effects are often not jointly addressed in previous studies. To capture these factors, we model ad bidding as a Contextual Markov Decision Process (CMDP) with delayed Poisson rewards. For efficient estimation, we propose a two-stage maximum likelihood estimator combined with data-splitting strategies, ensuring controlled estimation error based on the first-stage estimator's (in)accuracy. Building on this, we design a reinforcement learning algorithm to derive efficient personalized bidding strategies. This approach achieves a near-optimal regret bound of $\tilde{O}{(dH^2\sqrt{T})}$, where $d$ is the contextual dimension, $H$ is the number of rounds, and $T$ is the number of customers. Our theoretical findings are validated by simulation experiments.

Recent advances such as self-consistency and test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) improve the reliability of large language models (LLMs) without additional supervision, yet their underlying mechanisms and statistical guarantees remain poorly understood. We present a unified framework for certifiable inference in LLMs, showing that majority voting provides a statistical certificate of self-consistency: under mild assumptions, the aggregated answer coincides with the mode of the model's terminal distribution with high probability. We derive finite-sample and anytime-valid concentration bounds that quantify this confidence, and introduce the Martingale Majority Certificate (MMC), a sequential stopping rule that adaptively determines when sufficient samples have been drawn. We further prove that label-free post-training methods such as TTRL implicitly sharpen the answer distribution by exponentially tilting it toward its mode, thereby reducing the number of samples required for certification. Building on this insight, we propose new post-training objectives that explicitly optimise this trade-off between sharpness and bias. Together, these results explain and connect two central test-time scaling strategies, self-consistency and TTRL, within a single statistical framework for label-free, certifiable reliability in reasoning LLMs.

This paper studies the black-box optimization task which aims to find the maxima of a black-box function using a static set of its observed input-output pairs. This is often achieved via learning and optimizing a surrogate function with that offline data. Alternatively, it can also be framed as an inverse modeling task that maps a desired performance to potential input candidates that achieve it. Both approaches are constrained by the limited amount of offline data. To mitigate this limitation, we introduce a new perspective that casts offline optimization as a distributional translation task. This is formulated as learning a probabilistic bridge transforming an implicit distribution of low-value inputs (i.e., offline data) into another distribution of high-value inputs (i.e., solution candidates). Such probabilistic bridge can be learned using low- and high-value inputs sampled from synthetic functions that resemble the target function. These synthetic functions are constructed as the mean posterior of multiple Gaussian processes fitted with different parameterizations on the offline data, alleviating the data bottleneck. The proposed approach is evaluated on an extensive benchmark comprising most recent methods, demonstrating significant improvement and establishing a new state-of-the-art performance. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/ROOT.

In standard autoregressive generation, an LLM predicts the next-token distribution, samples a discrete token, and then discards the distribution, passing only the sampled token as new input. To preserve this distribution's rich information, we propose Mixture of Inputs (MoI), a training-free method for autoregressive generation. After generating a token following the standard paradigm, we construct a new input that blends the generated discrete token with the previously discarded token distribution. Specifically, we employ a Bayesian estimation method that treats the token distribution as the prior, the sampled token as the observation, and replaces the conventional one-hot vector with the continuous posterior expectation as the new model input. MoI allows the model to maintain a richer internal representation throughout the generation process, resulting in improved text quality and reasoning capabilities. On mathematical reasoning, code generation, and PhD-level QA tasks, MoI consistently improves performance across multiple models including QwQ-32B, Nemotron-Super-49B, Gemma-3-27B, and DAPO-Qwen-32B, with no additional training and negligible computational overhead.