This paper presents probabilistic modeling methods to solve the problem of discriminating betweenfive facial orientations with very little labeled data.

Te-Won Lee, Michael S. Lewicki and Terrence Sejnowski Howard Hughes Medical Institute Computational Neurobiology Laboratory The Salk Institute 10010 N. Torrey Pines Road La Jolla, California 92037, USA {tewon,lewicki,terry}Osalk.edu Abstract We present an unsupervised classification algorithm based on an ICA mixture model. The ICA mixture model assumes that the observed data can be categorized into several mutually exclusive data classes in which the components in each class are generated by a linear mixture of independent sources. The algorithm finds the independent sources, the mixing matrix for each class and also computes the class membership probability for each data point. This approach extends the Gaussian mixture model so that the classes can have non-Gaussian structure. We demonstrate that this method can learn efficient codes to represent images of natural scenes and text.

Inference is a key component in learning probabilistic models from partially observabledata. When learning temporal models, each of the many inference phases requires a traversal over an entire long data sequence; furthermore,the data structures manipulated are exponentially large, making this process computationally expensive. In [2], we describe an approximate inference algorithm for monitoring stochastic processes, and prove bounds on its approximation error. In this paper, we apply this algorithm as an approximate forward propagation step in an EM algorithm for learning temporal Bayesian networks. We provide a related approximation forthe backward step, and prove error bounds for the combined algorithm.

In supervised learning, we have a set of explicative variables x from which we wish to predict aresponse variable y.

We describe Maximum-Likelihood Continuity Mapping (MALCOM), an alternative to hidden Markov models (HMMs) for processing sequence data such as speech. While HMMs have a discrete "hidden" space constrained bya fixed finite-automaton architecture, MALCOM has a continuous hidden space-a continuity map-that is constrained only by a smoothness requirement on paths through the space. MALCOM fits into the same probabilistic framework for speech recognition as HMMs, but it represents a more realistic model of the speech production process. To evaluate the extent to which MALCOM captures speech production information, we generated continuous speech continuity maps for three speakers and used the paths through them to predict measured speech articulator data. The median correlation between the MALCOM paths obtained from only the speech acoustics and articulator measurements was 0.77 on an independent test set not used to train MALCOM or the predictor.

Using simulations, we show that divisive normalization is a close approximation to a maximum likelihood estimator, which, in the context of population coding, is the same as an ideal observer. We also demonstrate analytically thatthis is a general property of a large class of nonlinear recurrent networks with line attractors. Our work suggests that divisive normalization plays a critical role in noise filtering, and that every cortical layer may be an ideal observer of the activity in the preceding layer. Information processing in the cortex is often formalized as a sequence of a linear stages followed by a nonlinearity. In the visual cortex, the nonlinearity is best described bysquaring combined with a divisive pooling of local activities.

The model parameters are learned in an unsupervised manner by maximizing the likelihood that these data are generated by the model.

We introduce a novel framework for simultaneous structure and parameter learning in hidden-variable conditional probability models, based on an entropic prior and a solution for its maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator. The MAP estimate minimizes uncertainty in all respects: cross-entropy between model and data; entropy of the model; entropy of the data's descriptive statistics. Iterative estimation extinguishes weakly supported parameters, compressing and sparsifying the model. Trimming operators accelerate this process by removing excess parameters and, unlike most pruning schemes, guarantee an increase in posterior probability. Entropic estimation takes a overcomplete random model and simplifies it, inducing the structure of relations between hidden and observed variables. Applied to hidden Markov models (HMMs), it finds a concise finite-state machine representing the hidden structure of a signal. We entropically model music, handwriting, and video time-series, and show that the resulting models are highly concise, structured, predictive, and interpretable: Surviving states tend to be highly correlated with meaningful partitions of the data, while surviving transitions provide a low-perplexity model of the signal dynamics.

The difficulties lie in the Monte-Carlo E-step which consists of sampling from the posterior distribution of the hidden variables given the observations. The new idea presented in this paper is to generate samples from a Gaussian approximation to the true posterior from which it is easy to obtain independent samples. The parameters of the Gaussian approximation are either derived from the extended Kalman filter or the Fisher scoring algorithm. In case the posterior density is multimodal wepropose to approximate the posterior by a sum of Gaussians (mixture of modes approach). We show that sampling from the approximate posteriordensities obtained by the above algorithms leads to better models than using point estimates for the hidden states. In our experiment, theFisher scoring algorithm obtained a better approximation of the posterior mode than the EKF. For a multimodal distribution, the mixture ofmodes approach gave superior results. 1 INTRODUCTION Nonlinear state space models (NSSM) are a general framework for representing nonlinear time series. In particular, any NARMAX model (nonlinear auto-regressive moving average model with external inputs) can be translated into an equivalent NSSM.

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