The technique of principal component analysis (PCA) has recently been expressed as the maximum likelihood solution for a generative latent variable model. In this paper we use this probabilistic reformulation as the basis for a Bayesian treatment of PCA. Our key result is that effective dimensionality of the latent space (equivalent to the number of retained principal components) can be determined automatically as part of the Bayesian inference procedure. An important application of this framework is to mixtures of probabilistic PCA models, in which each component can determine its own effective complexity.

We discuss the application of TAP mean field methods known from the Statistical Mechanics of disordered systems to Bayesian classification models with Gaussian processes. In contrast to previous approaches, no knowledge about the distribution of inputs is needed. Simulation results for the Sonar data set are given.

Arguably one of the most important types of information processing is the capacity for probabilistic reasoning. The properties of undirectedproDabilistic models represented as symmetric networks have been studied extensively using methods from statistical mechanics (Hertz et aI, 1991). Detailed analyses of these models are possible by exploiting averaging phenomena that occur in the thermodynamic limit of large networks. In this paper, we analyze the limit of large, multilayer networks for probabilistic models represented as directed acyclic graphs. These models are known as Bayesian networks (Pearl, 1988; Neal, 1992), and they have different probabilistic semantics than symmetric neural networks (such as Hopfield models or Boltzmann machines). We show that the intractability of exact inference in multilayer Bayesian networks Inference in Multilayer Networks via Large Deviation Bounds 261 does not preclude their effective use. Our work builds on earlier studies of variational methods (Jordan et aI, 1997).

We explore in this study the statistical properties of this normalization in the presence of noise. Using simulations, we show that divisive normalization is a close approximation to a maximum likelihood estimator, which, in the context of population coding, is the same as an ideal observer. We also demonstrate analytically that this is a general property of a large class of nonlinear recurrent networks with line attractors. Our work suggests that divisive normalization plays a critical role in noise filtering, and that every cortical layer may be an ideal observer of the activity in the preceding layer. Information processing in the cortex is often formalized as a sequence of a linear stages followed by a nonlinearity.

I consider the problem of learning concepts from small numbers of positive examples, a feat which humans perform routinely but which computers are rarely capable of. Bridging machine learning and cognitive science perspectives, I present both theoretical analysis and an empirical study with human subjects for the simple task oflearning concepts corresponding to axis-aligned rectangles in a multidimensional feature space. Existing learning models, when applied to this task, cannot explain how subjects generalize from only a few examples of the concept. I propose a principled Bayesian model based on the assumption that the examples are a random sample from the concept to be learned. The model gives precise fits to human behavior on this simple task and provides qualitati ve insights into more complex, realistic cases of concept learning.

We compare the ability of three exemplar-based memory models, each using three different face stimulus representations, to account for the probability a human subject responded "old" in an old/new facial memory experiment. The models are 1) the Generalized Context Model, 2) SimSample, a probabilistic sampling model, and 3) MMOM, a novel model related to kernel density estimation that explicitly encodes stimulus distinctiveness. The representations are 1) positions of stimuli in MDS "face space," 2) projections of test faces onto the "eigenfaces" of the study set, and 3) a representation based on response to a grid of Gabor filter jets. Of the 9 model/representation combinations, only the distinctiveness model in MDS space predicts the observed "morph familiarity inversion" effect, in which the subjects' false alarm rate for morphs between similar faces is higher than their hit rate for many of the studied faces. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that human memory for faces is a kernel density estimation task, with the caveat that distinctive faces require larger kernels than do typical faces.

W is often taken to be diagonal, but if we allow W to be a general positive definite matrix which can be tuned on the basis of training data, then an eigen-analysis of W shows that we are effectively creating hidden features, where the dimensionality of the hidden-feature space is determined by the data. We demonstrate the superiority of predictions usi ng the general matrix over those based on a diagonal matrix on two test problems.

We introduce a novel framework for simultaneous structure and parameter learning in hidden-variable conditional probability models, based on an entropic prior and a solution for its maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator. The MAP estimate minimizes uncertainty in all respects: cross-entropy between model and data; entropy of the model; entropy of the data's descriptive statistics. Iterative estimation extinguishes weakly supported parameters, compressing and sparsifying the model. Trimming operators accelerate this process by removing excess parameters and, unlike most pruning schemes, guarantee an increase in posterior probability. Entropic estimation takes a overcomplete random model and simplifies it, inducing the structure of relations between hidden and observed variables. Applied to hidden Markov models (HMMs), it finds a concise finite-state machine representing the hidden structure of a signal. We entropically model music, handwriting, and video time-series, and show that the resulting models are highly concise, structured, predictive, and interpretable: Surviving states tend to be highly correlated with meaningful partitions of the data, while surviving transitions provide a low-perplexity model of the signal dynamics.

A dynamic tree model specifies a prior over a large number of trees, each one of which is a tree-structured belief net (TSBN) . Our aim is to retain the advantages of tree-structured belief networks, namely the hierarchical structure of the model and (in part) the efficient inference algorithms, while avoiding the "blocky" artifacts that derive from a single, fixed TSBN structure. One use for DTs is as prior models over labellings for image segmentation problems.

Arguably oneabilities of the most important types of information processing is the capacity for probabilistic reasoning. The properties of undirectedproDabilistic models represented as symmetric networks ethave been studied extensively using methods from statistical mechanics (Hertz aI, 1991). Detailed analyses of these models are possible by exploiting averaging that occur in the thermodynamic limit of large networks.phenomena In this paper, we analyze the limit of large, multilayer networks for probabilistic models represented as directed acyclic graphs. These models are known as Bayesian networks (Pearl, 1988; Neal, 1992), and they have different probabilistic semantics than symmetric neural networks (such as Hopfield models or Boltzmann machines). We show that the intractability of exact inference in multilayer Bayesian networks 261 Inference in Multilayer Networks via Large Deviation Bounds does not preclude their effective use. Our work builds on earlier studies of variational methods (Jordan et aI, 1997).