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 Uncertainty


Discriminative Densities from Maximum Contrast Estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a framework for classifier design based on discriminative densities for representation of the differences of the class-conditional distributions ina way that is optimal for classification. The densities are selected from a parametrized set by constrained maximization of some objective function which measures the average (bounded) difference, i.e. the contrast between discriminative densities. We show that maximization ofthe contrast is equivalent to minimization of an approximation of the Bayes risk.



Learning in Zero-Sum Team Markov Games Using Factored Value Functions

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a new method for learning good strategies in zero-sum Markov games in which each side is composed of multiple agents collaborating againstan opposing team of agents. Our method requires full observability and communication during learning, but the learned policies canbe executed in a distributed manner. The value function is represented asa factored linear architecture and its structure determines the necessary computational resources and communication bandwidth. This approach permits a tradeoff between simple representations with little or no communication between agents and complex, computationally intensive representationswith extensive coordination between agents. Thus, we provide a principled means of using approximation to combat the exponential blowup in the joint action space of the participants. The approach isdemonstrated with an example that shows the efficiency gains over naive enumeration.


Accelerating Reinforcement Learning through Implicit Imitation

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Imitation can be viewed as a means of enhancing learning in multiagent environments. It augments an agent's ability to learn useful behaviors by making intelligent use of the knowledge implicit in behaviors demonstrated by cooperative teachers or other more experienced agents. We propose and study a formal model of implicit imitation that can accelerate reinforcement learning dramatically in certain cases. Roughly, by observing a mentor, a reinforcement-learning agent can extract information about its own capabilities in, and the relative value of, unvisited parts of the state space. We study two specific instantiations of this model, one in which the learning agent and the mentor have identical abilities, and one designed to deal with agents and mentors with different action sets. We illustrate the benefits of implicit imitation by integrating it with prioritized sweeping, and demonstrating improved performance and convergence through observation of single and multiple mentors. Though we make some stringent assumptions regarding observability and possible interactions, we briefly comment on extensions of the model that relax these restricitions.


Efficient Solution Algorithms for Factored MDPs

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

This paper addresses the problem of planning under uncertainty in large Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Factored MDPs represent a complex state space using state variables and the transition model using a dynamic Bayesian network. This representation often allows an exponential reduction in the representation size of structured MDPs, but the complexity of exact solution algorithms for such MDPs can grow exponentially in the representation size. In this paper, we present two approximate solution algorithms that exploit structure in factored MDPs. Both use an approximate value function represented as a linear combination of basis functions, where each basis function involves only a small subset of the domain variables. A key contribution of this paper is that it shows how the basic operations of both algorithms can be performed efficiently in closed form, by exploiting both additive and context-specific structure in a factored MDP. A central element of our algorithms is a novel linear program decomposition technique, analogous to variable elimination in Bayesian networks, which reduces an exponentially large LP to a provably equivalent, polynomial-sized one. One algorithm uses approximate linear programming, and the second approximate dynamic programming. Our dynamic programming algorithm is novel in that it uses an approximation based on max-norm, a technique that more directly minimizes the terms that appear in error bounds for approximate MDP algorithms. We provide experimental results on problems with over 10^40 states, demonstrating a promising indication of the scalability of our approach, and compare our algorithm to an existing state-of-the-art approach, showing, in some problems, exponential gains in computation time.


A fuzzy set AHP-based DFM tool for rotational parts

#artificialintelligence

Design for manufacturability (DFM) requires product designers to simultaneously consider the manufacturing issues of a product along with the geometrical and design aspects. This paper reports a computer-aided DFM tool for product designers to evaluate the manufacturability of their designs. A fuzzy set-based manufacturability evaluation algorithm is formulated to generate relative manufacturability indices (MIs) to provide product designers with a better understanding of the relative ease or difficulty of machining the features in their designs. This computer-aided DFM system is developed for rotational parts. The MI of machining a part is decomposed into three components, namely, the support index, the clamping index, and the feature index.


Learning-Assisted Automated Planning: Looking Back, Taking Stock, Going Forward

AI Magazine

This article reports on an extensive survey and analysis of research work related to machine learning as it applies to automated planning over the past 30 years. Major research contributions are broadly characterized by learning method and then descriptive subcategories. Survey results reveal learning techniques that have extensively been applied and a number that have received scant attention. We extend the survey analysis to suggest promising avenues for future research in learning based on both previous experience and current needs in the planning community.


Exploiting Contextual Independence In Probabilistic Inference

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Bayesian belief networks have grown to prominence because they provide compact representations for many problems for which probabilistic inference is appropriate, and there are algorithms to exploit this compactness. The next step is to allow compact representations of the conditional probabilities of a variable given its parents. In this paper we present such a representation that exploits contextual independence in terms of parent contexts; which variables act as parents may depend on the value of other variables. The internal representation is in terms of contextual factors (confactors) that is simply a pair of a context and a table. The algorithm, contextual variable elimination, is based on the standard variable elimination algorithm that eliminates the non-query variables in turn, but when eliminating a variable, the tables that need to be multiplied can depend on the context. This algorithm reduces to standard variable elimination when there is no contextual independence structure to exploit. We show how this can be much more efficient than variable elimination when there is structure to exploit. We explain why this new method can exploit more structure than previous methods for structured belief network inference and an analogous algorithm that uses trees.


Searching for Bayesian Network Structures in the Space of Restricted Acyclic Partially Directed Graphs

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Although many algorithms have been designed to construct Bayesian network structures using different approaches and principles, they all employ only two methods: those based on independence criteria, and those based on a scoring function and a search procedure (although some methods combine the two). Within the score+search paradigm, the dominant approach uses local search methods in the space of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the usual choices for defining the elementary modifications (local changes) that can be applied are arc addition, arc deletion, and arc reversal. In this paper, we propose a new local search method that uses a different search space, and which takes account of the concept of equivalence between network structures: restricted acyclic partially directed graphs (RPDAGs). In this way, the number of different configurations of the search space is reduced, thus improving efficiency. Moreover, although the final result must necessarily be a local optimum given the nature of the search method, the topology of the new search space, which avoids making early decisions about the directions of the arcs, may help to find better local optima than those obtained by searching in the DAG space. Detailed results of the evaluation of the proposed search method on several test problems, including the well-known Alarm Monitoring System, are also presented.


The 2002 Trading Agent Competition: An Overview of Agent Strategies

AI Magazine

This article summarizes 16 agent strategies that were designed for the 2002 Trading Agent Competition. Agent architects use numerous general-purpose AI techniques, including machine learning, planning, partially observable Markov decision processes, Monte Carlo simulations, and multiagent systems. Ultimately, the most successful agents were primarily heuristic based and domain specific.