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 Uncertainty


Fast Sparse Gaussian Process Methods: The Informative Vector Machine

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a framework for sparse Gaussian process (GP) methods which uses forward selection with criteria based on informationtheoretic principles, previously suggested for active learning. Our goal is not only to learn d-sparse predictors (which can be evaluated in O(d) rather than O(n), d n, n the number of training points), but also to perform training under strong restrictions on time and memory requirements.


Evidence Optimization Techniques for Estimating Stimulus-Response Functions

Neural Information Processing Systems

An essential step in understanding the function of sensory nervous systems is to characterize as accurately as possible the stimulus-response function (SRF) of the neurons that relay and process sensory information. One increasingly common experimental approach is to present a rapidly varying complex stimulus to the animal while recording the responses of one or more neurons, and then to directly estimate a functional transformation of the input that accounts for the neuronal firing. The estimation techniques usually employed, such as Wiener filtering or other correlation-based estimation of the Wiener or Volterra kernels, are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation in a Gaussian-output-noise regression model. We explore the use of Bayesian evidence-optimization techniques to condition these estimates. We show that by learning hyperparameters that control the smoothness and sparsity of the transfer function it is possible to improve dramatically the quality of SRF estimates, as measured by their success in predicting responses to novel input.


Location Estimation with a Differential Update Network

Neural Information Processing Systems

Given a set of hidden variables with an a-priori Markov structure, we derive an online algorithm which approximately updates the posterior as pairwise measurements between the hidden variables become available. The update is performed using Assumed Density Filtering: to incorporate each pairwise measurement, we compute the optimal Markov structure which represents the true posterior and use it as a prior for incorporating the next measurement. We demonstrate the resulting algorithm by calculating globally consistent trajectories of a robot as it navigates along a 2D trajectory. To update a trajectory of length t, the update takes O(t). When all conditional distributions are linear-Gaussian, the algorithm can be thought of as a Kalman Filter which simplifies the state covariance matrix after incorporating each measurement.


Adaptive Quantization and Density Estimation in Silicon

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present the bump mixture model, a statistical model for analog data where the probabilistic semantics, inference, and learning rules derive from low-level transistor behavior. The bump mixture model relies on translinear circuits to perform probabilistic inference, and floating-gate devices to perform adaptation. This system is low power, asynchronous, and fully parallel, and supports various on-chip learning algorithms. In addition, the mixture model can perform several tasks such as probability estimation, vector quantization, classification, and clustering. We tested a fabricated system on clustering, quantization, and classification of handwritten digits and show performance comparable to the EM algorithm on mixtures of Gaussians.


Learning with Multiple Labels

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we study a special kind of learning problem in which each training instance is given a set of (or distribution over) candidate class labels and only one of the candidate labels is the correct one. Such a problem can occur, e.g., in an information retrieval setting where a set of words is associated with an image, or if classes labels are organized hierarchically. We propose a novel discriminative approach for handling the ambiguity of class labels in the training examples. The experiments with the proposed approach over five different UCI datasets show that our approach is able to find the correct label among the set of candidate labels and actually achieve performance close to the case when each training instance is given a single correct label. In contrast, naIve methods degrade rapidly as more ambiguity is introduced into the labels. 1 Introduction Supervised and unsupervised learning problems have been extensively studied in the machine learning literature. In supervised classification each training instance is associated with a single class label, while in unsupervised classification (i.e.


Nonparametric Representation of Policies and Value Functions: A Trajectory-Based Approach

Neural Information Processing Systems

A longstanding goal of reinforcement learning is to develop nonparametric representations of policies and value functions that support rapid learning without suffering from interference or the curse of dimensionality. We have developed a trajectory-based approach, in which policies and value functions are represented nonparametrically along trajectories. These trajectories, policies, and value functions are updated as the value function becomes more accurate or as a model of the task is updated. We have applied this approach to periodic tasks such as hopping and walking, which required handling discount factors and discontinuities in the task dynamics, and using function approximation to represent value functions at discontinuities. We also describe extensions of the approach to make the policies more robust to modeling error and sensor noise.


A Hierarchical Bayesian Markovian Model for Motifs in Biopolymer Sequences

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a dynamic Bayesian model for motifs in biopolymer sequences which captures rich biological prior knowledge and positional dependencies in motif structure in a principled way. Our model posits that the position-specific multinomial parameters for monomer distribution are distributed as a latent Dirichlet-mixture random variable, and the position-specific Dirichlet component is determined by a hidden Markov process. Model parameters can be fit on training motifs using a variational EM algorithm within an empirical Bayesian framework. Variational inference is also used for detecting hidden motifs. Our model improves over previous models that ignore biological priors and positional dependence. It has much higher sensitivity to motifs during detection and a notable ability to distinguish genuine motifs from false recurring patterns.


Incremental Gaussian Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we consider Tipping's relevance vector machine (RVM) [1] and formalize an incremental training strategy as a variant of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm that we call Subspace EM (SSEM). Working with a subset of active basis functions, the sparsity of the RVM solution will ensure that the number of basis functions and thereby the computational complexity is kept low. We also introduce a mean field approach to the intractable classification model that is expected to give a very good approximation to exact Bayesian inference and contains the Laplace approximation as a special case.


Fractional Belief Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider loopy belief propagation for approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models. A limitation of the standard algorithm is that clique marginals are computed as if there were no loops in the graph. To overcome this limitation, we introduce fractional belief propagation. Fractional belief propagation is formulated in terms of a family of approximate free energies, which includes the Bethe free energy and the naive mean-field free as special cases. Using the linear response correction of the clique marginals, the scale parameters can be tuned. Simulation results illustrate the potential merits of the approach.


Independent Components Analysis through Product Density Estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a simple direct approach for solving the ICA problem, using density estimation and maximum likelihood. Given a candidate orthogonal frame, we model each of the coordinates using a semi-parametric density estimate based on cubic splines. Since our estimates have two continuous derivatives, we can easily run a second order search for the frame parameters. Our method performs very favorably when compared to state-of-the-art techniques. 1 Introduction Independent component analysis (ICA) is a popular enhancement over principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis. IRP which is assumed to arise from a linear mixing of a latent random source vector S E IRP, (1) X AS; the components Sj, j 1,...,p of S are assumed to be independently distributed.