Bayesian Averaging is Well-Temperated

Often a learning problem has natural quantitative measure of generalization. If a loss function is defined the natural measure is the generalization error, i.e., the expected loss on a random sample independent of the training set. Generalizability is a key topic of learning theory and much progress has been reported. Analytic results for a broad class of machines can be found in the litterature [8, 12, 9, 10] describing the asymptotic generalization ability of supervised algorithms that are continuously parameterized. Asymptotic bounds on generalization for general machines have been advocated by Vapnik [11]. Generalization results valid for finite training sets can only be obtained for specific learning machines, see e.g.