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 Uncertainty


On the Dirichlet Prior and Bayesian Regularization

Neural Information Processing Systems

In the Bayesian approach, regularization is achieved by specifying a prior distribution over the parameters and subsequently averaging over the posterior distribution. This regularization provides not only smoother estimates of the parameters compared to maximum likelihood but also guides the selection of model structures. It was pointed out in [6] that a very large scale parameter of the Dirichlet prior can degrade predictive accuracy due to severe regularization of the parameter estimates. We complement this discussion here and show that a very small scale parameter can lead to poor over-regularized structures when a product of (conjugate) Dirichlet priors is used over multinomial conditional distributions (Section 3). Section 4 demonstrates the effect of the scale parameter and how it can be calibrated. We focus on the class of Bayesian network models throughout this paper.


A Probabilistic Model for Learning Concatenative Morphology

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper describes a system for the unsupervised learning of morphological suffixes and stems from word lists. The system is composed of a generative probability model and hill-climbing and directed search algorithms. By extracting and examining morphologically rich subsets of an input lexicon, the directed search identifies highly productive paradigms.


Automatic Derivation of Statistical Algorithms: The EM Family and Beyond

Neural Information Processing Systems

Machine learning has reached a point where many probabilistic methods can be understood as variations, extensions and combinations of a much smaller set of abstract themes, e.g., as different instances of the EM algorithm. This enables the systematic derivation of algorithms customized for different models.


Conditional Models on the Ranking Poset

Neural Information Processing Systems

A distance-based conditional model on the ranking poset is presented for use in classification and ranking. The model is an extension of the Mallows model, and generalizes the classifier combination methods used by several ensemble learning algorithms, including error correcting output codes, discrete AdaBoost, logistic regression and cranking. The algebraic structure of the ranking poset leads to a simple Bayesian interpretation of the conditional model and its special cases. In addition to a unifying view, the framework suggests a probabilistic interpretation for error correcting output codes and an extension beyond the binary coding scheme.


How to Combine Color and Shape Information for 3D Object Recognition: Kernels do the Trick

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper presents a kernel method that allows to combine color and shape information for appearance-based object recognition. It doesn't require to define a new common representation, but use the power of kernels to combine different representations together in an effective manner. These results are achieved using results of statistical mechanics of spin glasses combined with Markov random fields via kernel functions. Experiments show an increase in recognition rate up to 5.92% with respect to conventional strategies.



Regularized Greedy Importance Sampling

Neural Information Processing Systems

Greedy importance sampling is an unbiased estimation technique that reduces the variance of standard importance sampling by explicitly searching for modes in the estimation objective. Previous work has demonstrated the feasibility of implementing this method and proved that the technique is unbiased in both discrete and continuous domains. In this paper we present a reformulation of greedy importance sampling that eliminates the free parameters from the original estimator, and introduces a new regularization strategy that further reduces variance without compromising unbiasedness. The resulting estimator is shown to be effective for difficult estimation problems arising in Markov random field inference. In particular, improvements are achieved over standard MCMC estimators when the distribution has multiple peaked modes.


Application of Variational Bayesian Approach to Speech Recognition

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework, which constructs shared-state triphone HMMs based on a variational Bayesian approach, and recognizes speech based on the Bayesian prediction classification; variational Bayesian estimation and clustering for speech recognition (VBEC). An appropriate model structure with high recognition performance can be found within a VBEC framework. Unlike conventional methods, including BIC or MDL criterion based on the maximum likelihood approach, the proposed model selection is valid in principle, even when there are insufficient amounts of data, because it does not use an asymptotic assumption. In isolated word recognition experiments, we show the advantage of VBEC over conventional methods, especially when dealing with small amounts of data.


Categorization Under Complexity: A Unified MDL Account of Human Learning of Regular and Irregular Categories

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present an account of human concept learning-that is, learning of categories from examples-based on the principle of minimum description length (MDL). In support of this theory, we tested a wide range of two-dimensional concept types, including both regular (simple) and highly irregular (complex) structures, and found the MDL theory to give a good account of subjects' performance. This suggests that the intrinsic complexity ofa concept (that is, its description -length) systematically influences its leamability.


Optimality of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms with Linear Function Approximation

Neural Information Processing Systems

There are several reinforcement learning algorithms that yield approximate solutions for the problem of policy evaluation when the value function is represented with a linear function approximator. In this paper we show that each of the solutions is optimal with respect to a specific objective function.