People routinely make sophisticated causal inferences unconsciously, effortlessly, and from very little data - often from just one or a few observations. We argue that these inferences can be explained as Bayesian computations over a hypothesis space of causal graphical models, shaped by strong top-down prior knowledge in the form of intuitive theories.

We focus on the problem of efficient learning of dependency trees. It is well-known that given the pairwise mutual information coefficients, a minimum-weight spanning tree algorithm solves this problem exactly and in polynomial time. However, for large data-sets it is the construction of the correlation matrix that dominates the running time. We have developed a new spanning-tree algorithm which is capable of exploiting partial knowledge about edge weights. The partial knowledge we maintain is a probabilistic confidence interval on the coefficients, which we derive by examining just a small sample of the data. The algorithm is able to flag the need to shrink an interval, which translates to inspection of more data for the particular attribute pair. Experimental results show running time that is near-constant in the number of records, without significant loss in accuracy of the generated trees. Interestingly, our spanning-tree algorithm is based solely on Tarjan's red-edge rule, which is generally considered a guaranteed recipe for bad performance.

Accurate representation of articulated motion is a challenging problem for machine perception. Several successful tracking algorithms have been developed that model human body as an articulated tree. We propose a learning-based method for creating such articulated models from observations of multiple rigid motions. This paper is concerned with recovering topology of the articulated model, when the rigid motion of constituent segments is known. Our approach is based on finding the Maximum Likelihood tree shaped factorization of the joint probability density function (PDF) of rigid segment motions. The topology of graphical model formed from this factorization corresponds to topology of the underlying articulated body. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on both synthetic and real motion capture data.

Missing data is common in real-world datasets and is a problem for many estimation techniques. We have developed a variational Bayesian method to perform Independent Component Analysis (ICA) on high-dimensional data containing missing entries. Missing data are handled naturally in the Bayesian framework by integrating the generative density model. Modeling the distributions of the independent sources with mixture of Gaussians allows sources to be estimated with different kurtosis and skewness. The variational Bayesian method automatically determines the dimensionality of the data and yields an accurate density model for the observed data without overfitting problems. This allows direct probability estimation of missing values in the high dimensional space and avoids dimension reduction preprocessing which is not feasible with missing data.

This paper focuses on people's short-run behavior by examining dynamical versions of these three theories, and comparing their predictions to a real-world dataset.

Given a set of hidden variables with an a-priori Markov structure, we derive an online algorithm which approximately updates the posterior as pairwise measurements between the hidden variables become available. The update is performed using Assumed Density Filtering: to incorporate each pairwise measurement, we compute the optimal Markov structure which represents the true posterior and use it as a prior for incorporating the next measurement. We demonstrate the resulting algorithm by calculating globally consistent trajectories of a robot as it navigates along a 2D trajectory. To update a trajectory of length t, the update takes O(t). When all conditional distributions are linear-Gaussian, the algorithm can be thought of as a Kalman Filter which simplifies the state covariance matrix after incorporating each measurement.

This paper presents a kernel method that allows to combine color and shape information for appearance-based object recognition. It doesn't require to define a new common representation, but use the power of kernels to combine different representations together in an effective manner. These results are achieved using results of statistical mechanics of spin glasses combined with Markov random fields via kernel functions. Experiments show an increase in recognition rate up to 5.92% with respect to conventional strategies.

Greedy importance sampling is an unbiased estimation technique that reduces the variance of standard importance sampling by explicitly searching for modes in the estimation objective. Previous work has demonstrated the feasibility of implementing this method and proved that the technique is unbiased in both discrete and continuous domains. In this paper we present a reformulation of greedy importance sampling that eliminates the free parameters from the original estimator, and introduces a new regularization strategy that further reduces variance without compromising unbiasedness. The resulting estimator is shown to be effective for difficult estimation problems arising in Markov random field inference. In particular, improvements are achieved over standard MCMC estimators when the distribution has multiple peaked modes.

We propose in this paper a probabilistic approach for adaptive inference of generalized nonlinear classification that combines the computational advantage of a parametric solution with the flexibility of sequential sampling techniques. We regard the parameters of the classifier as latent states in a first order Markov process and propose an algorithm which can be regarded as variational generalization of standard Kalman filtering. The variational Kalman filter is based on two novel lower bounds that enable us to use a non-degenerate distribution over the adaptation rate. An extensive empirical evaluation demonstrates that the proposed method is capable of infering competitive classifiers both in stationary and non-stationary environments. Although we focus on classification, the algorithm is easily extended to other generalized nonlinear models.

The responses of cortical sensory neurons are notoriously variable, with the number of spikes evoked by identical stimuli varying significantly from trial to trial. This variability is most often interpreted as'noise', purely detrimental to the sensory system. In this paper, we propose an alternative view in which the variability is related to the uncertainty, about world parameters, which is inherent in the sensory stimulus. Specifically, the responses of a population of neurons are interpreted as stochastic samples from the posterior distribution in a latent variable model. In addition to giving theoretical arguments supporting such a representational scheme, we provide simulations suggesting how some aspects of response variability might be understood in this framework.