This makes Gaussian process regression too slow for large datasets. In this paper, we present a fast approximation method, based on kd-trees, that significantly reduces both the prediction and the training times of Gaussian process regression.

We study the problem of maximum entropy density estimation in the presence of known sample selection bias. We propose three bias correction approaches. The first one takes advantage of unbiased sufficient statistics which can be obtained from biased samples. The second one estimates the biased distribution and then factors the bias out. The third one approximates the second by only using samples from the sampling distribution. We provide guarantees for the first two approaches and evaluate the performance of all three approaches in synthetic experiments and on real data from species habitat modeling, where maxent has been successfully applied and where sample selection bias is a significant problem.

Humans make optimal perceptual decisions in noisy and ambiguous conditions. Computations underlying such optimal behavior have been shown to rely on probabilistic inference according to generative models whose structure is usually taken to be known a priori. We argue that Bayesian model selection is ideal for inferring similar and even more complex model structures from experience. We find in experiments that humans learn subtle statistical properties of visual scenes in a completely unsupervised manner. We show that these findings are well captured by Bayesian model learning within a class of models that seek to explain observed variables by independent hidden causes.

We show that linear generalizations of Rescorla-Wagner can perform Maximum Likelihood estimation of the parameters of all generative models for causal reasoning. Our approach involves augmenting variables to deal with conjunctions of causes, similar to the agumented model of Rescorla. Our results involve genericity assumptions on the distributions of causes. If these assumptions are violated, for example for the Cheng causal power theory, then we show that a linear Rescorla-Wagner can estimate the parameters of the model up to a nonlinear transformtion. Moreover, a nonlinear Rescorla-Wagner is able to estimate the parameters directly to within arbitrary accuracy. Previous results can be used to determine convergence and to estimate convergence rates.

We investigate the learning of the appearance of an object from a single image of it. Instead of using a large number of pictures of the object to recognize, we use a labeled reference database of pictures of other objects to learn invariance to noise and variations in pose and illumination. This acquired knowledge is then used to predict if two pictures of new objects, which do not appear on the training pictures, actually display the same object. We propose a generic scheme called chopping to address this task. It relies on hundreds of random binary splits of the training set chosen to keep together the images of any given object. Those splits are extended to the complete image space with a simple learning algorithm. Given two images, the responses of the split predictors are combined with a Bayesian rule into a posterior probability of similarity.

The concept of surprise is central to sensory processing, adaptation, learning, and attention. Yet, no widely-accepted mathematical theory currently exists to quantitatively characterize surprise elicited by a stimulus or event, for observers that range from single neurons to complex natural or engineered systems. We describe a formal Bayesian definition of surprise that is the only consistent formulation under minimal axiomatic assumptions. Surprise quantifies how data affects a natural or artificial observer, by measuring the difference between posterior and prior beliefs of the observer. Using this framework we measure the extent to which humans direct their gaze towards surprising items while watching television and video games. We find that subjects are strongly attracted towards surprising locations, with 72% of all human gaze shifts directed towards locations more surprising than the average, a figure which rises to 84% when considering only gaze targets simultaneously selected by all subjects.

Theories of visual attention commonly posit that early parallel processes extract conspicuous features such as color contrast and motion from the visual field. These features are then combined into a saliency map, and attention is directed to the most salient regions first. Top-down attentional control is achieved by modulating the contribution of different feature types to the saliency map. A key source of data concerning attentional control comes from behavioral studies in which the effect of recent experience is examined as individuals repeatedly perform a perceptual discrimination task (e.g., "what shape is the odd-colored object?"). The robust finding is that repetition of features of recent trials (e.g., target color) facilitates performance. We view this facilitation as an adaptation to the statistical structure of the environment. We propose a probabilistic model of the environment that is updated after each trial. Under the assumption that attentional control operates so as to make performance more efficient for more likely environmental states, we obtain parsimonious explanations for data from four different experiments. Further, our model provides a rational explanation for why the influence of past experience on attentional control is short lived.

The classical Bayes rule computes the posterior model probability from the prior probability and the data likelihood. We generalize this rule to the case when the prior is a density matrix (symmetric positive definite and trace one) and the data likelihood a covariance matrix. The classical Bayes rule is retained as the special case when the matrices are diagonal. In the classical setting, the calculation of the probability of the data is an expected likelihood, where the expectation is over the prior distribution. In the generalized setting, this is replaced by an expected variance calculation where the variance is computed along the eigenvectors of the prior density matrix and the expectation is over the eigenvalues of the density matrix (which form a probability vector). The variances along any direction is determined by the covariance matrix. Curiously enough this expected variance calculation is a quantum measurement where the covariance matrix specifies the instrument and the prior density matrix the mixture state of the particle. We motivate both the classical and the generalized Bayes rule with a minimum relative entropy principle, where the Kullbach-Leibler version gives the classical Bayes rule and Umegaki's quantum relative entropy the new Bayes rule for density matrices.

This paper presents a new sampling algorithm for approximating functions of variables representable as undirected graphical models of arbitrary connectivity with pairwise potentials, as well as for estimating the notoriously difficult partition function of the graph. The algorithm fits into the framework of sequential Monte Carlo methods rather than the more widely used MCMC, and relies on constructing a sequence of intermediate distributions which get closer to the desired one. While the idea of using "tempered" proposals is known, we construct a novel sequence of target distributions where, rather than dropping a global temperature parameter, we sequentially couple individual pairs of variables that are, initially, sampled exactly from a spanning tree of the variables.

We investigate the problem of automatically constructing efficient representations or basis functions for approximating value functions based on analyzing the structure and topology of the state space. In particular, two novel approaches to value function approximation are explored based on automatically constructing basis functions on state spaces that can be represented as graphs or manifolds: one approach uses the eigenfunctions of the Laplacian, in effect performing a global Fourier analysis on the graph; the second approach is based on diffusion wavelets, which generalize classical wavelets to graphs using multiscale dilations induced by powers of a diffusion operator or random walk on the graph. Together, these approaches form the foundation of a new generation of methods for solving large Markov decision processes, in which the underlying representation and policies are simultaneously learned.