We present a robust distributed algorithm for approximate probabilistic inference in dynamical systems, such as sensor networks and teams of mobile robots. Using assumed density filtering, the network nodes maintain a tractable representation of the belief state in a distributed fashion. At each time step, the nodes coordinate to condition this distribution on the observations made throughout the network, and to advance this estimate to the next time step. In addition, we identify a significant challenge for probabilistic inference in dynamical systems: message losses or network partitions can cause nodes to have inconsistent beliefs about the current state of the system. We address this problem by developing distributed algorithms that guarantee that nodes will reach an informative consistent distribution whencommunication is reestablished. We present a suite of experimental results on real-world sensor data for two real sensor network deployments: one with 25 cameras and another with 54 temperature sensors.

This paper proposes a new approach to model-based clustering under prior knowledge.

We present a new statistical framework called hidden Markov Dirichlet process (HMDP) to jointly model the genetic recombinations among possibly infinite number of founders and the coalescence-with-mutation events in the resulting genealogies. TheHMDP posits that a haplotype of genetic markers is generated by a sequence of recombination events that select an ancestor for each locus from an unbounded set of founders according to a 1st-order Markov transition process. Conjoining this process with a mutation model, our method accommodates both between-lineage recombination and within-lineage sequence variations, and leads to a compact and natural interpretation of the population structure and inheritance process underlying haplotype data. We have developed an efficient sampling algorithm forHMDP based on a two-level nested Pólya urn scheme. On both simulated and real SNP haplotype data, our method performs competitively or significantly better than extant methods in uncovering the recombination hotspots along chromosomal loci;and in addition it also infers the ancestral genetic patterns and offers a highly accurate map of ancestral compositions of modern populations.

We introduce a Gaussian process (GP) framework, stochastic relational models (SRM), for learning social, physical, and other relational phenomena where interactions betweenentities are observed. The key idea is to model the stochastic structure of entity relationships (i.e., links) via a tensor interaction of multiple GPs, each defined on one type of entities. These models in fact define a set of nonparametric priors on infinite dimensional tensor matrices, where each element represents a relationship between a tuple of entities. By maximizing the marginalized likelihood,information is exchanged between the participating GPs through the entire relational network, so that the dependency structure of links is messaged to the dependency of entities, reflected by the adapted GP kernels. The framework offers a discriminative approach to link prediction, namely, predicting the existences, strengths,or types of relationships based on the partially observed linkage network as well as the attributes of entities (if given). We discuss properties and variants of SRM and derive an efficient learning algorithm. Very encouraging experimental resultsare achieved on a toy problem and a user-movie preference link prediction task. In the end we discuss extensions of SRM to general relational learning tasks.

Data sets that characterize human activity over time through collections of timestamped eventsor counts are of increasing interest in application areas as humancomputer interaction,video surveillance, and Web data analysis. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian framework for modeling collections of such data. In particular, we use a Dirichlet process framework for learning a set of intensity functions corresponding to different categories, which form a basis set for representing individualtime-periods (e.g., several days) depending on which categories the time-periods are assigned to. This allows the model to learn in a data-driven fashion what "factors" are generating the observations on a particular day, including (forexample) weekday versus weekend effects or day-specific effects corresponding tounique (single-day) occurrences of unusual behavior, sharing information where appropriate to obtain improved estimates of the behavior associated with each category. Applications to real-world data sets of count data involving both vehicles and people are used to illustrate the technique.

The switch 5t may depend on both the previous 5:71 and hkl.

Categorization is a central activity of human cognition. When an individual is asked to categorize asequence of items, context effects arise: categorization of one item influences category decisions for subsequent items. Specifically, when experimental subjects are shown an exemplar of some target category, the category prototype appears to be pulled toward the exemplar, and the prototypes of all nontarget categories appear to be pushed away. These push and pull effects diminish with experience, and likely reflect long-term learning of category boundaries. We propose and evaluate four principled probabilistic (Bayesian) accounts ofcontext effects in categorization.

Perceptual Bistability refers to the phenomenon of spontaneously switching between twoor more interpretations of an image under continuous viewing. Although switchingbehavior is increasingly well characterized, the origins remain elusive. We propose that perceptual switching naturally arises from the brain's search for best interpretations while performing Bayesian inference. In particular, we propose that the brain explores a posterior distribution over image interpretations ata rapid time scale via a sampling-like process and updates its interpretation when a sampled interpretation is better than the discounted value of its current interpretation. Weformalize the theory, explicitly derive switching rate distributions and discuss qualitative properties of the theory including the effect of changes in the posterior distribution on switching rates. Finally, predictions of the theory are shown to be consistent with measured changes in human switching dynamics to Necker cube stimuli induced by context.

Propagation based methods are developed and rigorously assessed.

We describe an unsupervised method for learning a probabilistic grammar of an object from a set of training examples. Our approach is invariant to the scale and rotation of the objects. We illustrate our approach using thirteen objects from the Caltech 101 database. In addition, we learn the model of a hybrid object class where we do not know the specific object or its position, scale or pose. This is illustrated bylearning a hybrid class consisting of faces, motorbikes, and airplanes. The individual objects can be recovered as different aspects of the grammar for the object class.