Deep ensembles (DE) have emerged as a powerful approach for quantifying predictive uncertainty and distinguishing its aleatoric and epistemic components, thereby enhancing model robustness and reliability. However, their high computational and memory costs during inference pose significant challenges for wide practical deployment. To overcome this issue, we propose credal ensemble distillation (CED), a novel framework that compresses a DE into a single model, CREDIT, for classification tasks. Instead of a single softmax probability distribution, CREDIT predicts class-wise probability intervals that define a credal set, a convex set of probability distributions, for uncertainty quantification. Empirical results on out-of-distribution detection benchmarks demonstrate that CED achieves superior or comparable uncertainty estimation compared to several existing baselines, while substantially reducing inference overhead compared to DE.

Failures are the norm in highly complex and heterogeneous devices spanning the distributed computing continuum (DCC), from resource-constrained IoT and edge nodes to high-performance computing systems. Ensuring reliability and global consistency across these layers remains a major challenge, especially for AI-driven workloads requiring real-time, adaptive coordination. This work-in-progress paper introduces a Probabilistic Active Inference Resilience Agent (PAIR-Agent) to achieve resilience in DCC systems. PAIR-Agent performs three core operations: (i) constructing a causal fault graph from device logs, (ii) identifying faults while managing certainties and uncertainties using Markov blankets and the free energy principle, and (iii) autonomously healing issues through active inference. Through continuous monitoring and adaptive reconfiguration, the agent maintains service continuity and stability under diverse failure conditions. Theoretical validations confirm the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Monocular depth estimation is a fundamental problem in computer vision with applications in autonomous driving, robotics and augmented reality. Recently, self-supervised learning methods have achieved impressive results by using view synthesis as a supervisory signal, but despite these advances, handling depth discontinuities remains challenging. In most scenes, foreground objects occlude the background, creating depth discontinuities at object boundaries. Conventional models assign a single depth value per pixel, but edge uncertainty often causes depth values to be averaged between foreground and background depths, blurring transitions and introducing artifacts in the point cloud (see Figure 2). To address this, we propose to represent per-pixel depth as a multimodal distribution, explicitly modeling both depths at boundaries, preserving sharp transitions and removing artifacts.

Diffusion models (DMs) have emerged as powerful image priors in Bayesian computational imaging. Two primary strategies have been proposed for leveraging DMs in this context: Plug-and-Play methods, which are zero-shot and highly flexible but rely on approximations; and specialized conditional DMs, which achieve higher accuracy and faster inference for specific tasks through supervised training. In this work, we introduce a novel framework that integrates deep unfolding and model distillation to transform a DM image prior into a few-step conditional model for posterior sampling. A central innovation of our approach is the unfolding of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm - specifically, the recently proposed LATINO Langevin sampler (Spagnoletti et al., 2025) - representing the first known instance of deep unfolding applied to a Monte Carlo sampling scheme. We demonstrate our proposed unfolded and distilled samplers through extensive experiments and comparisons with the state of the art, where they achieve excellent accuracy and computational efficiency, while retaining the flexibility to adapt to variations in the forward model at inference time.

To distinguish Markov equivalent graphs in causal discovery, it is necessary to restrict the structural causal model. Crucially, we need to be able to distinguish cause $X$ from effect $Y$ in bivariate models, that is, distinguish the two graphs $X \to Y$ and $Y \to X$. Location-scale noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect $Y$ is modeled based on the cause $X$ as $Y = f(X) + g(X)N$, form a flexible class of models that is general and identifiable in most cases. Estimating these models for arbitrary noise terms $N$, however, is challenging. Therefore, practical estimators are typically restricted to symmetric distributions, such as the normal distribution. As we showcase in this paper, when $N$ is a skewed random variable, which is likely in real-world domains, the reliability of these approaches decreases. To approach this limitation, we propose SkewD, a likelihood-based algorithm for bivariate causal discovery under LSNMs with skewed noise distributions. SkewD extends the usual normal-distribution framework to the skew-normal setting, enabling reliable inference under symmetric and skewed noise. For parameter estimation, we employ a combination of a heuristic search and an expectation conditional maximization algorithm. We evaluate SkewD on novel synthetically generated datasets with skewed noise as well as established benchmark datasets. Throughout our experiments, SkewD exhibits a strong performance and, in comparison to prior work, remains robust under high skewness.

Score-based generative models have recently attracted significant attention for their ability to generate high-fidelity data by learning maps from simple Gaussian priors to complex data distributions. A natural generalization of this idea to transformations between arbitrary probability distributions leads to the Schrödinger Bridge (SB) problem. However, SB solutions rarely admit closed-form expressios and are commonly obtained through iterative stochastic simulation procedures, which are computationally intensive and can be unstable. In this work, we introduce a unified closed-form framework for representing the stochastic dynamics of SB systems. Our formulation subsumes previously known analytical solutions including the Schrödinger Föllmer process and the Gaussian SB as specific instances. Notably, the classical Gaussian SB solution, previously derived using substantially more sophisticated tools such as Riemannian geometry and generator theory, follows directly from our formulation as an immediate corollary. Leveraging this framework, we develop a simulation-free algorithm that infers SB dynamics directly from samples of the source and target distributions. We demonstrate the versatility of our approach in two settings: (i) modeling developmental trajectories in single-cell genomics and (ii) solving image restoration tasks such as inpainting and deblurring. This work opens a new direction for efficient and scalable nonlinear diffusion modeling across scientific and machine learning applications.

Neural networks are capable of translating between languages--in some cases even between two languages where there is little or no access to parallel translations, in what is known as Unsupervised Machine Translation (UMT).

In this paper, we study the finite-sample statistical rates of distributional temporal difference (TD) learning with linear function approximation. The purpose of distributional TD learning is to estimate the return distribution of a discounted Markov decision process for a given policy. Previous works on statistical analysis of distributional TD learning focus mainly on the tabular case. We first consider the linear function approximation setting and conduct a fine-grained analysis of the linear-categorical Bellman equation. Building on this analysis, we further incorporate variance reduction techniques in our new algorithms to establish tight sample complexity bounds independent of the support size $K$ when $K$ is large. Our theoretical results imply that, when employing distributional TD learning with linear function approximation, learning the full distribution of the return function from streaming data is no more difficult than learning its expectation. This work provide new insights into the statistical efficiency of distributional reinforcement learning algorithms.

Coral bleaching is a major concern for marine ecosystems; more than half of the world's coral reefs have either bleached or died over the past three decades. Increasing sea surface temperatures, along with various spatiotemporal environmental factors, are considered the primary reasons behind coral bleaching. The statistical and machine learning communities have focused on multiple aspects of the environment in detail. However, the literature on various stochastic modeling approaches for assessing coral bleaching is extremely scarce. Data-driven strategies are crucial for effective reef management, and this review article provides an overview of existing statistical and machine learning methods for assessing coral bleaching. Statistical frameworks, including simple regression models, generalized linear models, generalized additive models, Bayesian regression models, spatiotemporal models, and resilience indicators, such as Fisher's Information and Variance Index, are commonly used to explore how different environmental stressors influence coral bleaching. On the other hand, machine learning methods, including random forests, decision trees, support vector machines, and spatial operators, are more popular for detecting nonlinear relationships, analyzing high-dimensional data, and allowing integration of heterogeneous data from diverse sources. In addition to summarizing these models, we also discuss potential data-driven future research directions, with a focus on constructing statistical and machine learning models in specific contexts related to coral bleaching.

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.