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 Uncertainty


Reasoning with Very Expressive Fuzzy Description Logics

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

It is widely recognized today that the management of imprecision and vagueness will yield more intelligent and realistic knowledge-based applications. Description Logics (DLs) are a family of knowledge representation languages that have gained considerable attention the last decade, mainly due to their decidability and the existence of empirically high performance of reasoning algorithms. In this paper, we extend the well known fuzzy ALC DL to the fuzzy SHIN DL, which extends the fuzzy ALC DL with transitive role axioms (S), inverse roles (I), role hierarchies (H) and number restrictions (N). We illustrate why transitive role axioms are difficult to handle in the presence of fuzzy interpretations and how to handle them properly. Then we extend these results by adding role hierarchies and finally number restrictions. The main contributions of the paper are the decidability proof of the fuzzy DL languages fuzzy-SI and fuzzy-SHIN, as well as decision procedures for the knowledge base satisfiability problem of the fuzzy-SI and fuzzy-SHIN.


Effective linkage learning using low-order statistics and clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The adoption of probabilistic models for the best individuals found so far is a powerful approach for evolutionary computation. Increasingly more complex models have been used by estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs), which often result better effectiveness on finding the global optima for hard optimization problems. Supervised and unsupervised learning of Bayesian networks are very effective options, since those models are able to capture interactions of high order among the variables of a problem. Diversity preservation, through niching techniques, has also shown to be very important to allow the identification of the problem structure as much as for keeping several global optima. Recently, clustering was evaluated as an effective niching technique for EDAs, but the performance of simpler low-order EDAs was not shown to be much improved by clustering, except for some simple multimodal problems. This work proposes and evaluates a combination operator guided by a measure from information theory which allows a clustered low-order EDA to effectively solve a comprehensive range of benchmark optimization problems.


Topic and Role Discovery in Social Networks with Experiments on Enron and Academic Email

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Previous work in social network analysis (SNA) has modeled the existence of links from one entity to another, but not the attributes such as language content or topics on those links. We present the Author-Recipient-Topic (ART) model for social network analysis, which learns topic distributions based on the direction-sensitive messages sent between entities. The model builds on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and the Author-Topic (AT) model, adding the key attribute that distribution over topics is conditioned distinctly on both the sender and recipient---steering the discovery of topics according to the relationships between people. We give results on both the Enron email corpus and a researcher's email archive, providing evidence not only that clearly relevant topics are discovered, but that the ART model better predicts people's roles and gives lower perplexity on previously unseen messages. We also present the Role-Author-Recipient-Topic (RART) model, an extension to ART that explicitly represents people's roles.


Semantic distillation: a method for clustering objects by their contextual specificity

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Techniques for data-mining, latent semantic analysis, contextual search of databases, etc. have long ago been developed by computer scientists working on information retrieval (IR). Experimental scientists, from all disciplines, having to analyse large collections of raw experimental data (astronomical, physical, biological, etc.) have developed powerful methods for their statistical analysis and for clustering, categorising, and classifying objects. Finally, physicists have developed a theory of quantum measurement, unifying the logical, algebraic, and probabilistic aspects of queries into a single formalism. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first to show that when formulated at an abstract level, problems from IR, from statistical data analysis, and from physical measurement theories are very similar and hence can profitably be cross-fertilised, and, secondly, to propose a novel method of fuzzy hierarchical clustering, termed \textit{semantic distillation} -- strongly inspired from the theory of quantum measurement --, we developed to analyse raw data coming from various types of experiments on DNA arrays. We illustrate the method by analysing DNA arrays experiments and clustering the genes of the array according to their specificity.


Local approximate inference algorithms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a new local approximation algorithm for computing Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) and log-partition function for arbitrary exponential family distribution represented by a finite-valued pair-wise Markov random field (MRF), say $G$. Our algorithm is based on decomposition of $G$ into {\em appropriately} chosen small components; then computing estimates locally in each of these components and then producing a {\em good} global solution. We show that if the underlying graph $G$ either excludes some finite-sized graph as its minor (e.g. Planar graph) or has low doubling dimension (e.g. any graph with {\em geometry}), then our algorithm will produce solution for both questions within {\em arbitrary accuracy}. We present a message-passing implementation of our algorithm for MAP computation using self-avoiding walk of graph. In order to evaluate the computational cost of this implementation, we derive novel tight bounds on the size of self-avoiding walk tree for arbitrary graph. As a consequence of our algorithmic result, we show that the normalized log-partition function (also known as free-energy) for a class of {\em regular} MRFs will converge to a limit, that is computable to an arbitrary accuracy.


An algorithmic and a geometric characterization of Coarsening At Random

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We show that the class of conditional distributions satisfying the coarsening at Random (CAR) property for discrete data has a simple and robust algorithmic description based on randomized uniform multicovers: combinatorial objects generalizing the notion of partition of a set. However, the complexity of a given CAR mechanism can be large: the maximal "height" of the needed multicovers can be exponential in the number of points in the sample space. The results stem from a geometric interpretation of the set of CAR distributions as a convex polytope and a characterization of its extreme points. The hierarchy of CAR models defined in this way could be useful in parsimonious statistical modelling of CAR mechanisms, though the results also raise doubts in applied work as to the meaningfulness of the CAR assumption in its full generality. This paper has been accepted for publication in the Annals of Statistics. It will appear later in 2007 or in 2008.


Enrichment of Qualitative Beliefs for Reasoning under Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Qualitative methods for reasoning under uncertainty have gained more and more attention by Information Fusion community, especially by the researchers and system designers working in the development of modern multi-source systems for defense, robotics and so on. This is because traditional methods based only on quantitative representation and analysis are not able to completely satisfy adequately the need of the development of science and technology integrating at higher fusion levels human beliefs and reports in complex systems. Therefore qualitative knowledge representation becomes more and more important and necessary in next generations of (semi) intelligent automatic and autonomous systems. For example, Wagner et al. [16] consider that although recent robots have powerful sensors and actuators, their abilities to show intelligent behavior is often limited because of lacking of appropriate spatial representation. Ranganathan et al. [11] describe a navigation system for a mobile robot which must execute motions in a building, the environment is represented by a topological model based on a Generalized Voronoi Graph (GVG) and by a set of visual landmarks. A qualitative self-localization method for indoor environment using a belt of ultrasonic sensors and a camera is proposed. Moratz et al. [6] point out that qualitative spatial reasoning(QSR) abstracts metrical details of the physical world, of which two main directions are topological reasoning about regions and reasoning about orientations of point configurations. So, because concrete problems need a combination of qualitative knowledge of orientation and qualitative knowledge of distance, they present a calculus based on ternary relations where they introduce a qualitative distance measurement based on two of the three points.


On Universal Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not always available or fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various (philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. We show that Solomonoff's model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well (actually better) in non-computable environments.


Multi-Sensor Fusion Method using Dynamic Bayesian Network for Precise Vehicle Localization and Road Matching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a multi-sensor fusion strategy for a novel road-matching method designed to support real-time navigational features within advanced driving-assistance systems. Managing multihypotheses is a useful strategy for the road-matching problem. The multi-sensor fusion and multi-modal estimation are realized using Dynamical Bayesian Network. Experimental results, using data from Antilock Braking System (ABS) sensors, a differential Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and an accurate digital roadmap, illustrate the performances of this approach, especially in ambiguous situations.


Qualitative Belief Conditioning Rules (QBCR)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we propose a simple arithmetic of linguistic labels which allows a direct extension of quantitative Belief Conditioning Rules (BCR) proposed in the DSmT [3, 4] framework to their qualitative counterpart. Qualitative beliefs assignments are well adapted for manipulated information expressed in natural language and usually reported by human expert or AIbased expert systems. A new method for computing directly with words (CW) for combining and conditioning qualitative information is presented. CW, more precisely computing with linguistic labels, is usually more vague, less precise than computing with numbers, but it is expected to offer a better robustness and flexibility for combining uncertain and conflicting human reports than computing with numbers because in most of cases human experts are less efficient to provide (and to justify) precise quantitative beliefs than qualitative beliefs. Before extending the quantitative DSmT-based conditioning rules to their qualitative counterparts, it will be necessary to define few but new important operators on linguistic labels and what is a qualitative belief assignment. Then we will show though simple examples how the combination of qualitative beliefs can be obtained in the DSmT framework.