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 Uncertainty


Learning Nonparametric Models for Probabilistic Imitation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Learning by imitation represents an important mechanism for rapid acquisition of new behaviors in humans and robots. A critical requirement for learning by imitation is the ability to handle uncertainty arising from the observation process as well as the imitator's own dynamics and interactions with the environment. In this paper, we present a new probabilistic method for inferring imitative actions that takes into account both the observations of the teacher as well as the imitator's dynamics. Our key contribution is a nonparametric learning method which generalizes to systems with very different dynamics. Rather than relying on a known forward model of the dynamics, our approach learns a nonparametric forward model via exploration. Leveraging advances in approximate inference in graphical models, we show how the learned forward model can be directly used to plan an imitating sequence. We provide experimental results for two systems: a biome-chanical model of the human arm and a 25-degrees-of-freedom humanoid robot. We demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to learn appropriate motor inputs to the model arm which imitates the desired movements. A second set of results demonstrates dynamically stable full-body imitation of a human teacher by the humanoid robot.


Near-Uniform Sampling of Combinatorial Spaces Using XOR Constraints

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a new technique for sampling the solutions of combinatorial problems ina near-uniform manner. We focus on problems specified as a Boolean formula, i.e.,on SAT instances. Sampling for SAT problems has been shown to have interesting connections with probabilistic reasoning, making practical sampling algorithms for SAT highly desirable. The best current approaches are based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, which have some practical limitations. Our approach exploits combinatorial properties of random parity (XOR) constraints to prune away solutions near-uniformly. The final sample is identified amongst the remaining ones using a state-of-the-art SAT solver.


Approximate inference using planar graph decomposition

Neural Information Processing Systems

A number of exact and approximate methods are available for inference calculations ingraphical models. Many recent approximate methods for graphs with cycles are based on tractable algorithms for tree structured graphs. Here we base the approximation on a different tractable model, planar graphs with binary variables andpure interaction potentials (no external field). The partition function for such models can be calculated exactly using an algorithm introduced by Fisher and Kasteleyn in the 1960s. We show how such tractable planar models can be used in a decomposition to derive upper bounds on the partition function of non-planar models.



Distributed Inference in Dynamical Systems

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a robust distributed algorithm for approximate probabilistic inference in dynamical systems, such as sensor networks and teams of mobile robots. Using assumed density filtering, the network nodes maintain a tractable representation of the belief state in a distributed fashion. At each time step, the nodes coordinate to condition this distribution on the observations made throughout the network, and to advance this estimate to the next time step. In addition, we identify a significant challenge for probabilistic inference in dynamical systems: message losses or network partitions can cause nodes to have inconsistent beliefs about the current state of the system. We address this problem by developing distributed algorithms that guarantee that nodes will reach an informative consistent distribution whencommunication is reestablished. We present a suite of experimental results on real-world sensor data for two real sensor network deployments: one with 25 cameras and another with 54 temperature sensors.



Using Combinatorial Optimization within Max-Product Belief Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

In general, the problem of computing a maximum a posteriori (MAP) assignment in a Markov random eld (MRF) is computationally intractable. However, in certain subclasses of MRF, an optimal or close-to-optimal assignment can be found very ef ciently using combinatorial optimization algorithms: certain MRFs with mutual exclusion constraints can be solved using bipartite matching, and MRFs with regular potentials can be solved using minimum cut methods. However, these solutions do not apply to the many MRFs that contain such tractable components as sub-networks, but also other non-complying potentials.


Relational Learning with Gaussian Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

Correlation between instances is often modelled via a kernel function using input attributesof the instances. Relational knowledge can further reveal additional pairwise correlations between variables of interest. In this paper, we develop a class of models which incorporates both reciprocal relational information and input attributesusing Gaussian process techniques. This approach provides a novel nonparametric Bayesian framework with a data-dependent covariance function for supervised learning tasks. We also apply this framework to semi-supervised learning. Experimental results on several real world data sets verify the usefulness of this algorithm.



Conditional mean field

Neural Information Processing Systems

Despite all the attention paid to variational methods based on sum-product message passing(loopy belief propagation, tree-reweighted sum-product), these methods are still bound to inference on a small set of probabilistic models. Mean field approximations have been applied to a broader set of problems, but the solutions are often poor. We propose a new class of conditionally-specified variational approximations basedon mean field theory. While not usable on their own, combined with sequential Monte Carlo they produce guaranteed improvements over conventional mean field. Moreover, experiments on a well-studied problem-- inferring the stable configurations of the Ising spin glass--show that the solutions can be significantly better than those obtained using sum-product-based methods.