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 Uncertainty


Bayesian Source Localization with the Multivariate Laplace Prior

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce a novel multivariate Laplace (MVL) distribution as a sparsity promoting prior for Bayesian source localization that allows the specification of constraints between and within sources. We represent the MVL distribution as a scale mixture that induces a coupling between source variances instead of their means. Approximation of the posterior marginals using expectation propagation is shown to be very efficient due to properties of the scale mixture representation. The computational bottleneck amounts to computing the diagonal elements of a sparse matrix inverse. Our approach is illustrated using a mismatch negativity paradigm for which MEG data and a structural MRI have been acquired. We show that spatial coupling leads to sources which are active over larger cortical areas as compared with an uncoupled prior.



Support Vector Machines with a Reject Option

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of binary classification where the classifier may abstain instead of classifying each observation. The Bayes decision rule for this setup, known as Chow's rule, is defined by two thresholds on posterior probabilities. From simple desiderata, namely the consistency and the sparsity of the classifier, we derive the double hinge loss function that focuses on estimating conditional probabilities only in the vicinity of the threshold points of the optimal decision rule. We show that, for suitable kernel machines, our approach is universally consistent. We cast the problem of minimizing the double hinge loss as a quadratic program akin to the standard SVM optimization problem and propose an active set method to solve it efficiently. We finally provide preliminary experimental results illustrating the interest of our constructive approach to devising loss functions.



A Transductive Bound for the Voted Classifier with an Application to Semi-supervised Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper we present two transductive bounds on the risk of the majority vote estimated over partially labeled training sets. Our first bound is tight when the additional unlabeled training data are used in the cases where the voted classifier makes its errors on low margin observations and where the errors of the associated Gibbs classifier can accurately be estimated. In semi-supervised learning, considering the margin as an indicator of confidence constitutes the working hypothesis of algorithms which search the decision boundary on low density regions. In this case, we propose a second bound on the joint probability that the voted classifier makes an error over an example having its margin over a fixed threshold. As an application we are interested on self-learning algorithms which assign iteratively pseudo-labels to unlabeled training examples having margin above a threshold obtained from this bound. Empirical results on different datasets show the effectiveness of our approach compared to the same algorithm and the TSVM in which the threshold is fixed manually.


Indian Buffet Processes with Power-law Behavior

Neural Information Processing Systems

The Indian buffet process (IBP) is an exchangeable distribution over binary matrices used in Bayesian nonparametric featural models. In this paper we propose a three-parameter generalization of the IBP exhibiting power-law behavior. We achieve this by generalizing the beta process (the de Finetti measure of the IBP) to the \emph{stable-beta process} and deriving the IBP corresponding to it. We find interesting relationships between the stable-beta process and the Pitman-Yor process (another stochastic process used in Bayesian nonparametric models with interesting power-law properties). We show that our power-law IBP is a good model for word occurrences in documents with improved performance over the normal IBP.


Learning Label Embeddings for Nearest-Neighbor Multi-class Classification with an Application to Speech Recognition

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of using nearest neighbor methods to provide a conditional probability estimate, P(y|a), when the number of labels y is large and the labels share some underlying structure. We propose a method for learning error-correcting output codes (ECOCs) to model the similarity between labels within a nearest neighbor framework. The learned ECOCs and nearest neighbor information are used to provide conditional probability estimates. We apply these estimates to the problem of acoustic modeling for speech recognition. We demonstrate an absolute reduction in word error rate (WER) of 0.9% (a 2.5% relative reduction in WER) on a lecture recognition task over a state-of-the-art baseline GMM model.


Occlusive Components Analysis

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study unsupervised learning in a probabilistic generative model for occlusion. The model uses two types of latent variables: one indicates which objects are present in the image, and the other how they are ordered in depth. This depth order then determines how the positions and appearances of the objects present, specified in the model parameters, combine to form the image. We show that the object parameters can be learnt from an unlabelled set of images in which objects occlude one another. Exact maximum-likelihood learning is intractable. However, we show that tractable approximations to Expectation Maximization (EM) can be found if the training images each contain only a small number of objects on average. In numerical experiments it is shown that these approximations recover the correct set of object parameters. Experiments on a novel version of the bars test using colored bars, and experiments on more realistic data, show that the algorithm performs well in extracting the generating causes. Experiments based on the standard bars benchmark test for object learning show that the algorithm performs well in comparison to other recent component extraction approaches. The model and the learning algorithm thus connect research on occlusion with the research field of multiple-cause component extraction methods.


Improving on Expectation Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

A series of corrections is developed for the fixed points of Expectation Propagation (EP),which is one of the most popular methods for approximate probabilistic inference. These corrections can lead to improvements of the inference approximation orserve as a sanity check, indicating when EP yields unrealiable results.


Sharing Features among Dynamical Systems with Beta Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to relating multiple time series via a set of latent, dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, we allow data-driven selection of the size of this set, as well as the pattern with which behaviors are shared among time series. Via the Indian buffet process representation of the beta process predictive distributions, we develop an exact Markov chain Monte Carlo inference method. In particular, our approach uses the sum-product algorithm to efficiently compute Metropolis-Hastings acceptance probabilities, and explores new dynamical behaviors via birth/death proposals. We validate our sampling algorithm using several synthetic datasets, and also demonstrate promising unsupervised segmentation of visual motion capture data.