Uncertainty
Clustering sequence sets for motif discovery
Most of existing methods for DNA motif discovery consider only a single set of sequences to find an over-represented motif. In contrast, we consider multiple sets of sequences where we group sets associated with the same motif into a cluster, assuming that each set involves a single motif. Clustering sets of sequences yields clusters of coherent motifs, improving signal-to-noise ratio or enabling us to identify multiple motifs. We present a probabilistic model for DNA motif discovery where we identify multiple motifs through searching for patterns which are shared across multiple sets of sequences. Our model infers cluster-indicating latent variables and learns motifs simultaneously, where these two tasks interact with each other. We show that our model can handle various motif discovery problems, depending on how to construct multiple sets of sequences. Experiments on three different problems for discovering DNA motifs emphasize the useful behavior and confirm the substantial gains over existing methods where only single set of sequences is considered.
Nonparametric Bayesian Learning of Switching Linear Dynamical Systems
Fox, Emily, Sudderth, Erik B., Jordan, Michael I., Willsky, Alan S.
Many nonlinear dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. In this paper, we present a nonparametric approach to the learning of an unknown number of persistent, smooth dynamical modes by utilizing a hierarchical Dirichlet process prior. We develop a sampling algorithm that combines a truncated approximation to the Dirichlet process with an efficient joint sampling of the mode and state sequences. The utility and flexibility of our model are demonstrated on synthetic data, sequences of dancing honey bees, and the IBOVESPA stock index.
Accelerating Bayesian Structural Inference for Non-Decomposable Gaussian Graphical Models
Moghaddam, Baback, Khan, Emtiyaz, Murphy, Kevin P., Marlin, Benjamin M.
In this paper we make several contributions towards accelerating approximate Bayesian structural inference for non-decomposable GGMs. Our first contribution is to show how to efficiently compute a BIC or Laplace approximation to the marginal likelihood of non-decomposable graphs using convex methods for precision matrix estimation. This optimization technique can be used as a fast scoring function inside standard Stochastic Local Search (SLS) for generating posterior samples. Our second contribution is a novel framework for efficiently generating large sets of high-quality graph topologies without performing local search. This graph proposal method, which we call Neighborhood Fusion" (NF), samples candidate Markov blankets at each node using sparse regression techniques. Our final contribution is a hybrid method combining the complementary strengths of NF and SLS. Experimental results in structural recovery and prediction tasks demonstrate that NF and hybrid NF/SLS out-perform state-of-the-art local search methods, on both synthetic and real-world datasets, when realistic computational limits are imposed."
Non-Parametric Bayesian Dictionary Learning for Sparse Image Representations
Zhou, Mingyuan, Chen, Haojun, Ren, Lu, Sapiro, Guillermo, Carin, Lawrence, Paisley, John W.
Non-parametric Bayesian techniques are considered for learning dictionaries for sparse image representations, with applications in denoising, inpainting and compressive sensing (CS). The beta process is employed as a prior for learning the dictionary, and this non-parametric method naturally infers an appropriate dictionary size. The Dirichlet process and a probit stick-breaking process are also considered to exploit structure within an image. The proposed method can learn a sparse dictionary in situ; training images may be exploited if available, but they are not required. Further, the noise variance need not be known, and can be non-stationary. Another virtue of the proposed method is that sequential inference can be readily employed, thereby allowing scaling to large images. Several example results are presented, using both Gibbs and variational Bayesian inference, with comparisons to other state-of-the-art approaches.
Perceptual Multistability as Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inference
Gershman, Samuel, Vul, Ed, Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
While many perceptual and cognitive phenomena are well described in terms of Bayesian inference, the necessary computations are intractable at the scale of real-world tasks, and it remains unclear how the human mind approximates Bayesian inference algorithmically. We explore the proposal that for some tasks, humans use a form of Markov Chain Monte Carlo to approximate the posterior distribution over hidden variables. As a case study, we show how several phenomena of perceptual multistability can be explained as MCMC inference in simple graphical models for low-level vision.
Bayesian Exponential Family PCA
Mohamed, Shakir, Ghahramani, Zoubin, Heller, Katherine A.
Principal Components Analysis (PCA) has become established as one of the key tools for dimensionality reduction when dealing with real valued data. Approaches such as exponential family PCA and non-negative matrix factorisation have successfully extended PCA to non-Gaussian data types, but these techniques fail to take advantage of Bayesian inference and can suffer from problems of overfitting and poor generalisation. This paper presents a fully probabilistic approach to PCA, which is generalised to the exponential family, based on Hybrid Monte Carlo sampling. We describe the model which is based on a factorisation of the observed data matrix, and show performance of the model on both synthetic and real data.
Submanifold density estimation
Ozakin, Arkadas, Gray, Alexander G.
Kernel density estimation is the most widely-used practical method for accurate nonparametric density estimation. However, long-standing worst-case theoretical results showing that its performance worsens exponentially with the dimension of the data have quashed its application to modern high-dimensional datasets for decades. In practice, it has been recognized that often such data have a much lower-dimensional intrinsic structure. We propose a small modification to kernel density estimation for estimating probability density functions on Riemannian submanifolds of Euclidean space. Using ideas from Riemannian geometry, we prove the consistency of this modified estimator and show that the convergence rate is determined by the intrinsic dimension of the submanifold. We conclude with empirical results demonstrating the behavior predicted by our theory.
Region-based Segmentation and Object Detection
Gould, Stephen, Gao, Tianshi, Koller, Daphne
Object detection and multi-class image segmentation are two closely related tasks that can be greatly improved when solved jointly by feeding information from one task to the other [10, 11]. However, current state-of-the-art models use a separate representation for each task making joint inference clumsy and leaving the classification of many parts of the scene ambiguous. In this work, we propose a hierarchical region-based approach to joint object detection and image segmentation. Our approach simultaneously reasons about pixels, regions and objects in a coherent probabilistic model. Pixel appearance features allow us to perform well on classifying amorphous background classes, while the explicit representation of regions facilitate the computation of more sophisticated featuresnecessary for object detection. Importantly, our model gives a single unified description of the scene--we explain every pixel in the image and enforce global consistency between all random variables in our model. We run experiments on the challenging Street Scene dataset [2] and show significant improvementover state-of-the-art results for object detection accuracy.
Help or Hinder: Bayesian Models of Social Goal Inference
Ullman, Tomer, Baker, Chris, Macindoe, Owen, Evans, Owain, Goodman, Noah, Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
Everyday social interactions are heavily influenced by our snap judgments about others' goals. Even young infants can infer the goals of intentional agents from observing how they interact with objects and other agents in their environment: e.g., that one agent is'helping' or'hindering' another's attempt to get up a hill or open a box. We propose a model for how people can infer these social goals from actions, based on inverse planning in multiagent Markov decision problems (MDPs). The model infers the goal most likely to be driving an agent's behavior byassuming the agent acts approximately rationally given environmental constraints andits model of other agents present.
A Gaussian Tree Approximation for Integer Least-Squares
Goldberger, Jacob, Leshem, Amir
This paper proposes a new algorithm for the linear least squares problem where the unknown variables are constrained to be in a finite set. The factor graph that corresponds to this problem is very loopy; in fact, it is a complete graph. Hence, applying the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm yields very poor results. The algorithm described here is based on an optimal tree approximation of the Gaussian density of the unconstrained linear system. It is shown that even though the approximation is not directly applied to the exact discrete distribution, applying the BP algorithm to the modified factor graph outperforms current methods in terms of both performance and complexity. The improved performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on the problem of MIMO detection.