Probabilistic matrix factorization (PMF) is a powerful method for modeling data associated with pairwise relationships, finding use in collaborative filtering, computational biology, and document analysis, among other areas. In many domains, there is additional information that can assist in prediction. For example, when modeling movie ratings, we might know when the rating occurred, where the user lives, or what actors appear in the movie. It is difficult, however, to incorporate this side information into the PMF model. We propose a framework for incorporating side information by coupling together multiple PMF problems via Gaussian process priors. We replace scalar latent features with functions that vary over the space of side information. The GP priors on these functions require them to vary smoothly and share information. We successfully use this new method to predict the scores of professional basketball games, where side information about the venue and date of the game are relevant for the outcome.

We have adapted an expert system of medical diagnosis for use by low to mid-level health workers in remote and rural locations. Key to the successful deployment of this expert system is the rapid adaptation of the database and clinical interface for use in specific regions and by varying user skill.

Traffic monitoring systems usually make assumptions about the movement of vehicles, such as that they drive in dedicated lanes, and that those lanes rarely include non-vehicle clutter. Urban settings within developing countries often present extremely chaotic traffic scenarios which make these assumptions unrealistic. We show how a standard approach to traffic monitoring can be made more robust by using probabilistic inference, and in such a way that we bypass the need for vehicle segmentation. Instead of tracking individual vehicles but treat a lane of traffic as a fluid and estimate the rate of flow. Our modelling of uncertainty allows us to accurately monitor traffic flow even in the presence of substantial clutter.

A key challenge for policymakers in many developing countries is to decide which intervention or collection of interventions works best to improve learning outcomes in their schools. Our aim is to develop a causal model that explains student learning outcomes in terms of observable characteristics as well as conditions and processes difficult to observe directly. We start with a theoretical model based on the results of previous research, direct experience and experts’ knowledge in the field. This model is then refined through application of supervised learning methods to available data sets. Once calibrated with local data in a country, the model estimates the probability that a given intervention would affect learning outcomes.

Previous work has shown that robot navigation systems that employ an architecture based upon the idiotypic network theory of the immune system have an advantage over control techniques that rely on reinforcement learning only. This is thought to be a result of intelligent behaviour selection on the part of the idiotypic robot. In this paper an attempt is made to imitate idiotypic dynamics by creating controllers that use reinforcement with a number of different probabilistic schemes to select robot behaviour. The aims are to show that the idiotypic system is not merely performing some kind of periodic random behaviour selection, and to try to gain further insight into the processes that govern the idiotypic mechanism. Trials are carried out using simulated Pioneer robots that undertake navigation exercises. Results show that a scheme that boosts the probability of selecting highly-ranked alternative behaviours to 50% during stall conditions comes closest to achieving the properties of the idiotypic system, but remains unable to match it in terms of all round performance.

Many probabilistic models introduce strong dependencies between variables using a latent multivariate Gaussian distribution or a Gaussian process. We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for performing inference in models with multivariate Gaussian priors. Its key properties are: 1) it has simple, generic code applicable to many models, 2) it has no free parameters, 3) it works well for a variety of Gaussian process based models. These properties make our method ideal for use while model building, removing the need to spend time deriving and tuning updates for more complex algorithms.

The paper investigates parameterized approximate message-passing schemes that are based on bounded inference and are inspired by Pearls belief propagation algorithm (BP). We start with the bounded inference mini-clustering algorithm and then move to the iterative scheme called Iterative Join-Graph Propagation (IJGP), that combines both iteration and bounded inference. Algorithm IJGP belongs to the class of Generalized Belief Propagation algorithms, a framework that allowed connections with approximate algorithms from statistical physics and is shown empirically to surpass the performance of mini-clustering and belief propagation, as well as a number of other state-of-the-art algorithms on several classes of networks. We also provide insight into the accuracy of iterative BP and IJGP by relating these algorithms to well known classes of constraint propagation schemes.

Description Logics (DLs) [2] are a logical reconstruction of the so-called frame-based knowledge representation languages, with the aim of providing a simple well-established Tarski-style declarative semantics to capture the meaning of the most popular features of structured representation of knowledge. Nowadays, DLs have gained even more popularity due to their application in 1 the context of the Semantic Web [4]. For example, the current standard language for specifying ontologies, the Web Ontology Language OWL is based on Description Logics. It is very natural to extend DLs to the fuzzy case in order to manage fuzzy/vague/imprecise pieces of knowledge for which a clear and precise definition is not possible. For a good and recent survey on the advances in the field of fuzzy DLs, we refer the reader to [14]. One of the challenges of the research in this community is the fact that different families of fuzzy operators (or fuzzy logics) lead to fuzzy DLs with different properties. In fuzzy logic, there are a lot of families of fuzzy operators (or fuzzy logics). Table 1 shows the connectives involved in what are considered the main four families. The most famous families correspond to the three basic continuous t-norms (i.e., Lukasiewicz, Gödel and Product [10]) together with an R-implication

In Newcomb's paradox you choose to receive either the contents of a particular closed box, or the contents of both that closed box and another one. Before you choose, a prediction algorithm deduces your choice, and fills the two boxes based on that deduction. Newcomb's paradox is that game theory appears to provide two conflicting recommendations for what choice you should make in this scenario. We analyze Newcomb's paradox using a recent extension of game theory in which the players set conditional probability distributions in a Bayes net. We show that the two game theory recommendations in Newcomb's scenario have different presumptions for what Bayes net relates your choice and the algorithm's prediction. We resolve the paradox by proving that these two Bayes nets are incompatible. We also show that the accuracy of the algorithm's prediction, the focus of much previous work, is irrelevant. In addition we show that Newcomb's scenario only provides a contradiction between game theory's expected utility and dominance principles if one is sloppy in specifying the underlying Bayes net. We also show that Newcomb's paradox is time-reversal invariant; both the paradox and its resolution are unchanged if the algorithm makes its `prediction' after you make your choice rather than before.

In many AI domains such as product configuration, a user should interactively specify a solution that must satisfy a set of constraints. In such scenarios, offline compilation of feasible solutions into a tractable representation is an important approach to delivering efficient backtrack-free user interaction online. In particular,binary decision diagrams (BDDs) have been successfully used as a compilation target for product and service configuration. In this paper we discuss how to extend BDD-based configuration to scenarios involving cost functions which express user preferences. We first show that an efficient, robust and easy to implement extension is possible if the cost function is additive, and feasible solutions are represented using multi-valued decision diagrams (MDDs). We also discuss the effect on MDD size if the cost function is non-additive or if it is encoded explicitly into MDD. We then discuss interactive configuration in the presence of multiple cost functions. We prove that even in its simplest form, multiple-cost configuration is NP-hard in the input MDD. However, for solving two-cost configuration we develop a pseudo-polynomial scheme and a fully polynomial approximation scheme. The applicability of our approach is demonstrated through experiments over real-world configuration models and product-catalogue datasets. Response times are generally within a fraction of a second even for very large instances.