Uncertainty
Causal Knowledge Network Integration for Life Cycle Assessment
Kim, Yun Seon (Wayne State University) | Choi, Keunho (Wayne State University) | Kim, Kyoung-Yun (Wayne State University)
Sustainability requires emphasizing the importance of environmental causes and effects among design knowledge from heterogeneous stakeholders to make a sustainable decision. Recently, such causes and effects have been well developed in ontological representation, which has been challenged to generate and integrate multiple domain knowledge due to its domain specific characteristics. Moreover, it is too challengeable to represent heterogeneous, domain-specific design knowledge in a standardized way. Causal knowledge can meet the necessity of knowledge integration in domains. Therefore, this paper aims to develop a causal knowledge integration system with the authorsโ previous mathematical causal knowledge representation.
Spatiotemporal Knowledge Representation and Reasoning under Uncertainty for Action Recognition in Smart Homes
Amirjavid, Farzad (University of Quebec at Chicoutimi (UQAC)) | Bouzouane, Abdenour (University of Quebec at Chicoutimi (UQAC)) | Bouchard, Bruno (University of Quebec at Chicoutimi (UQAC))
We apply artificial intelligence techniques to perform data analysis and activity recognition in smart homes. Sensors embedded in smart home provide primary data for reasoning about observations. The final goal is to provide appropriate assistance for residents to complete their Daily living Activities. Here, we introduce a qualitative approach that considers spatiotemporal specifications of activities in the Activity Recognition Agent to do knowledge representation and reasoning about the observations. We consider different existing uncertainties within sensors observations and Observed Agentโs activities. In the introduced approach, the more details about environment context would cause the less activity recognition process complexity and more precise functionality. To represent the knowledge, we apply the fuzzy logic to represent the world state by the fuzzified received values from sensors. The knowledge would be represented in the fuzzy context frame. To reduce the amount of collected data, meaningful changes in sensors generated values are considered to do Activity Recognition. Applying possibility distributions for event occurrence orders and sequences within different scenarios of activities realization, we are able to generate hypotheses about future possible occur-able events. The possible occur-able events and fuzzy digit parameters of their possible happening moments are represented in matrix format. The hypotheses about possible future observable contexts are generated considering spatial, temporal and other environmental parameters and then they would be ranked. Our final goal is to better explain the observations. If no possible explanation about observation be found, it would be recognized as abnormal behavior. In the case that no expected event be observed, we can reason that maybe event has occurred but not triggered and so next available events in previously learned scenarios would be expected. The system patience for number of possible missed events depends to trade-off between the degrees of resident's forgetfulness and probability of events trigger by applied sensors.
Knowledge Based Integration of Sustainability Issues in the (Re)Design Process
Erbas, Irem (Delft University of Technology) | Stouffs, Rudi (Delft University of Technology) | Sariyildiz, Sevil (Delft University of Technology)
The research project here described aims to contribute to the issue of sustainability of buildings by improving the architectural design process with the development of a decision support tool for the architect. In particular, the research adopts the improvement of existing designs, namely encouraging energy-efficient redesigns while improving indoor environmental quality as its strategy to promote sustainability. Redesign strategy is considered not only to extend the life cycle of a building but also to contribute to the realization of the overall transition towards an efficient and clean climate. The starting point for this research is the question of how to develop an integral framework which enables the modelling of design knowledge through more energy-efficient dwellings with acceptable indoor comfort in the sustainability context so that it would be possible to deal with qualitative, quantitative, complex and contradictory information at the same time and integrate these into design decision-making processes. This modelling approach is considered to provide a link to developing a tool or a link to be embedded in an existing tool. In the development of such an approach, how Artificial Intelligence (AI) can facilitate an integral understanding of the aspects is raised as a methodological question in terms of information processing and knowledge integration in the form of a design decision support tool. By this way it will be possible to assess the performance of the end result with respect to design choices, beforehand.
Artificial Intelligence and Risk Communication
Green, Nancy L. (University of North Carolina Greensboro)
The challenges of effective health risk communication are well known. This paper provides pointers to the health communication literature that discuss these problems. Tailoring printed information, visual displays, and interactive multimedia have been proposed in the health communication literature as promising approaches. On-line risk communication applications are increasing on the internet. However, potential effectiveness of applications using conventional computer technology is limited. We propose that use of artificial intelligence, building upon research in Intelligent Tutoring Systems, might be able to overcome these limitations.
Business Listing Classification Using Case Based Reasoning and Joint Probability
Sood, Sanjay (AT&T) | Kar, Parijat P. (AT&T)
One challenge of building and maintaining large-scale data management systems is managing data fusion from multiple data sources. Often times, different data sources may represent the same data element in a slightly different way. These differences may represent an error in the data or a disagreement between sources on the correct value that best represents the data point. When the quantity of data managed and fused becomes sufficiently large, manual review becomes impossible, and automated systems must be built to manage data fusion. Some of the traditional solutions use simple voting theory, Dempster-Shafer theory, fuzzy matching and incremental learning. This paper presents a novel approach to data fusion in the domain of business listings. The task at hand, business listing categorization, suffers from conflicting and incomplete data from disparate data sources. Given the need for a high degree of accuracy in this task, we use a combination of case-based reasoning, joint probability, and domain-specific rules to improve data accuracy above other methods.
Constrained Mixture Models for Asset Returns Modelling
The estimation of asset return distributions is crucial for determining optimal trading strategies. In this paper we describe the constrained mixture model, based on a mixture of Gamma and Gaussian distributions, to provide an accurate description of price trends as being clearly positive, negative or ranging while accounting for heavy tails and high kurtosis. The model is estimated in the Expectation Maximisation framework and model order estimation also respects the model's constraints.
GRASP and path-relinking for Coalition Structure Generation
Di Mauro, Nicola, Basile, Teresa M. A., Ferilli, Stefano, Esposito, Floriana
In Artificial Intelligence with Coalition Structure Generation (CSG) one refers to those cooperative complex problems that require to find an optimal partition, maximising a social welfare, of a set of entities involved in a system into exhaustive and disjoint coalitions. The solution of the CSG problem finds applications in many fields such as Machine Learning (covering machines, clustering), Data Mining (decision tree, discretization), Graph Theory, Natural Language Processing (aggregation), Semantic Web (service composition), and Bioinformatics. The problem of finding the optimal coalition structure is NP-complete. In this paper we present a greedy adaptive search procedure (GRASP) with path-relinking to efficiently search the space of coalition structures. Experiments and comparisons to other algorithms prove the validity of the proposed method in solving this hard combinatorial problem.
Efficient neuro-fuzzy system and its Memristor Crossbar-based Hardware Implementation
Merrikh-Bayat, Farnood, Bagheri-Shouraki, Saeed
In this paper a novel neuro-fuzzy system is proposed where its learning is based on the creation of fuzzy relations by using new implication method without utilizing any exact mathematical techniques. Then, a simple memristor crossbar-based analog circuit is designed to implement this neuro-fuzzy system which offers very interesting properties. In addition to high connectivity between neurons and being fault-tolerant, all synaptic weights in our proposed method are always non-negative and there is no need to precisely adjust them. Finally, this structure is hierarchically expandable and can compute operations in real time since it is implemented through analog circuits. Simulation results show the efficiency and applicability of our neuro-fuzzy computing system. They also indicate that this system can be a good candidate to be used for creating artificial brain.
Regularization Strategies and Empirical Bayesian Learning for MKL
Multiple kernel learning (MKL), structured sparsity, and multi-task learning have recently received considerable attention. In this paper, we show how different MKL algorithms can be understood as applications of either regularization on the kernel weights or block-norm-based regularization, which is more common in structured sparsity and multi-task learning. We show that these two regularization strategies can be systematically mapped to each other through a concave conjugate operation. When the kernel-weight-based regularizer is separable into components, we can naturally consider a generative probabilistic model behind MKL. Based on this model, we propose learning algorithms for the kernel weights through the maximization of marginal likelihood. We show through numerical experiments that $\ell_2$-norm MKL and Elastic-net MKL achieve comparable accuracy to uniform kernel combination. Although uniform kernel combination might be preferable from its simplicity, $\ell_2$-norm MKL and Elastic-net MKL can learn the usefulness of the information sources represented as kernels. In particular, Elastic-net MKL achieves sparsity in the kernel weights.
Variational approximation for heteroscedastic linear models and matching pursuit algorithms
Nott, David J., Tran, Minh-Ngoc, Leng, Chenlei
Modern statistical applications involving large data sets have focused attention on statistical methodologies which are both efficient computationally and able to deal with the screening of large numbers of different candidate models. Here we consider computationally efficient variational Bayes approaches to inference in high-dimensional heteroscedastic linear regression, where both the mean and variance are described in terms of linear functions of the predictors and where the number of predictors can be larger than the sample size. We derive a closed form variational lower bound on the log marginal likelihood useful for model selection, and propose a novel fast greedy search algorithm on the model space which makes use of one step optimization updates to the variational lower bound in the current model for screening large numbers of candidate predictor variables for inclusion/exclusion in a computationally thrifty way. We show that the model search strategy we suggest is related to widely used orthogonal matching pursuit algorithms for model search but yields a framework for potentially extending these algorithms to more complex models. The methodology is applied in simulations and in two real examples involving prediction for food constituents using NIR technology and prediction of disease progression in diabetes.