Cancer kills millions of people each year. From an AI perspective, finding effective treatments for cancer is a high-dimensional search problem characterized by many molecularly distinct cancer subtypes, many potential targets and drug combinations, and a dearth of high quality data to connect molecular subtypes and treatments to responses. The broadening availability of molecular diagnostics and electronic medical records, presents both opportunities and challenges to apply AI techniques to personalize and improve cancer treatment. We discuss these in the context of Cancer Commons, a “rapid learning” community where patients, physicians, and researchers collect and analyze the molecular and clinical data from every cancer patient, and use these results to individualize therapies. Research opportunities include: adaptively-planning and executing individual treatment experiments across the whole patient population, inferring the causal mechanisms of tumors, predicting drug response in individuals, and generalizing these findings to new cases. The goal is to treat each patient in accord with the best available knowledge, and to continually update that knowledge to benefit subsequent patients. Achieving this goal is a worthy grand challenge for AI.

We consider the problem of training probabilistic conditional random fields (CRFs) in the context of a task where performance is measured using a specific loss function. While maximum likelihood is the most common approach to training CRFs, it ignores the inherent structure of the task's loss function. We describe alternatives to maximum likelihood which take that loss into account. These include a novel adaptation of a loss upper bound from the structured SVMs literature to the CRF context, as well as a new loss-inspired KL divergence objective which relies on the probabilistic nature of CRFs. These loss-sensitive objectives are compared to maximum likelihood using ranking as a benchmark task. This comparison confirms the importance of incorporating loss information in the probabilistic training of CRFs, with the loss-inspired KL outperforming all other objectives.

In the aerial supply delivery problem, an un-manned aircraft needs to deliver supplies as close as possible to the desired goal location. This involves choosing and landing at a landing site that is closest to or most accessible from the desired goal location. The problem is complicated by the fact that the status of candidate landing sites is unknown before the mission begins, and instead the aircraft needs to compute a sequence according to which it flies and senses the candidate landing sites in order to land as quickly as possible. The problem of computing this sequence corresponds to planning under uncertainty about environment. In this paper, we show how it can be solved efficiently via a recently developed probabilistic planning framework, called Probabilistic Planning with Clear Preferences (PPCP). We show that the problem satisfies the Clear Preferences assumption required by PPCP,and therefore all the theoretical guarantees continue to hold. The experimental results in simulation show that our approachcan solve large-scale problems in real-time while experiments on a physical quad-rotor provide proof of concept.

Classical heuristic search algorithms find the solution cost of a problem while finding the path from the start state to a goal state. However, there are applications in which finding the path is not needed. In this paper we propose an algorithm that accurately and efficiently predicts the solution cost of a problem without finding the actual solution. We show empirically that our predictor makes more accurate predictions when compared to the bootstrapped heuristic, which is known to be a very accurate inadmissible heuristic. In addition, we show how our prediction algorithm can be used to enhance heuristic search algorithms. Namely, we use our predictor to calculate a bound for a bounded best-first search algorithm and to tune the w-value of Weighted IDA*. In both cases major search speedups were observed.

This paper presents a Bayesian approach to symbol and phase inference in a phase-unsynchronized digital receiver. It primarily extends [Quinn 2011] to the multi-symbol case, using the variational Bayes (VB) approximation to deal with the combinatorial complexity of the phase inference in this case. The work provides a fully Bayesian extension of the EM-based framework underlying current turbo-synchronization methods, since it induces a von Mises prior on the time-invariant phase parmeter. As a result, we achieve tractable iterative algorithms with improved robustness in low SNR regimes, compared to the current EM-based approaches. As a corollary to our analysis we also discover the importance of prior regularization in elegantly tackling the significant problem of phase ambiguity.

We present in this paper our law that there is always a connection present between two entities, with a selfconnection being present at least in each node. An entity is an object, physical or imaginary, that is connected by a path (or connection) and which is important for achieving the desired result of the scenario. In machine learning, we state that for any scenario, a subject entity is always, directly or indirectly, connected and affected by single or multiple independent / dependent entities, and their impact on the subject entity is dependent on various factors falling into the categories such as the existenc

When a system behaves abnormally, sequential diagnosis takes a sequence of measurements of the system until the faults causing the abnormality are identified, and the goal is to reduce the diagnostic cost, defined here as the number of measurements. To propose measurement points, previous work employs a heuristic based on reducing the entropy over a computed set of diagnoses. This approach generally has good performance in terms of diagnostic cost, but can fail to diagnose large systems when the set of diagnoses is too large. Focusing on a smaller set of probable diagnoses scales the approach but generally leads to increased average diagnostic costs. In this paper, we propose a new diagnostic framework employing four new techniques, which scales to much larger systems with good performance in terms of diagnostic cost. First, we propose a new heuristic for measurement point selection that can be computed efficiently, without requiring the set of diagnoses, once the system is modeled as a Bayesian network and compiled into a logical form known as d-DNNF. Second, we extend hierarchical diagnosis, a technique based on system abstraction from our previous work, to handle probabilities so that it can be applied to sequential diagnosis to allow larger systems to be diagnosed. Third, for the largest systems where even hierarchical diagnosis fails, we propose a novel method that converts the system into one that has a smaller abstraction and whose diagnoses form a superset of those of the original system; the new system can then be diagnosed and the result mapped back to the original system. Finally, we propose a novel cost estimation function which can be used to choose an abstraction of the system that is more likely to provide optimal average cost. Experiments with ISCAS-85 benchmark circuits indicate that our approach scales to all circuits in the suite except one that has a flat structure not susceptible to useful abstraction.

The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence accumulation is one of the main tools for combining data obtained from multiple sources. In this paper a special case of combination of two bodies of evidence with non-zero conflict coefficient is considered. It is shown that application of the Dempster-Shafer rule of combination in this case leads to an evaluation of masses of the combined bodies that is different from the evaluation of the corresponding probabilities obtained by application of the law of total probability. This finding supports the view that probabilistic interpretation of results of the Dempster-Shafer analysis in the general case is not appropriate.

MAP is the problem of finding a most probable instantiation of a set of variables given evidence. MAP has always been perceived to be significantly harder than the related problems of computing the probability of a variable instantiation Pr, or the problem of computing the most probable explanation (MPE). This paper investigates the complexity of MAP in Bayesian networks. Specifically, we show that MAP is complete for NP^PP and provide further negative complexity results for algorithms based on variable elimination. We also show that MAP remains hard even when MPE and Pr become easy. For example, we show that MAP is NP-complete when the networks are restricted to polytrees, and even then can not be effectively approximated. Given the difficulty of computing MAP exactly, and the difficulty of approximating MAP while providing useful guarantees on the resulting approximation, we investigate best effort approximations. We introduce a generic MAP approximation framework. We provide two instantiations of the framework; one for networks which are amenable to exact inference Pr, and one for networks for which even exact inference is too hard. This allows MAP approximation on networks that are too complex to even exactly solve the easier problems, Pr and MPE. Experimental results indicate that using these approximation algorithms provides much better solutions than standard techniques, and provide accurate MAP estimates in many cases.

Hierarchical latent class (HLC) models are tree-structured Bayesian networks where leaf nodes are observed while internal nodes are latent. There are no theoretically well justified model selection criteria for HLC models in particular and Bayesian networks with latent nodes in general. Nonetheless, empirical studies suggest that the BIC score is a reasonable criterion to use in practice for learning HLC models. Empirical studies also suggest that sometimes model selection can be improved if standard model dimension is replaced with effective model dimension in the penalty term of the BIC score. Effective dimensions are difficult to compute. In this paper, we prove a theorem that relates the effective dimension of an HLC model to the effective dimensions of a number of latent class models. The theorem makes it computationally feasible to compute the effective dimensions of large HLC models. The theorem can also be used to compute the effective dimensions of general tree models.