Modelling the real world complexity of music is a challenge for machine learning. We address the task of modeling melodic sequences from the same music genre. We perform a comparative analysis of two probabilistic models; a Dirichlet Variable Length Markov Model (Dirichlet-VMM) and a Time Convolutional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (TC-RBM). We show that the TC-RBM learns descriptive music features, such as underlying chords and typical melody transitions and dynamics. We assess the models for future prediction and compare their performance to a VMM, which is the current state of the art in melody generation. We show that both models perform significantly better than the VMM, with the Dirichlet-VMM marginally outperforming the TC-RBM. Finally, we evaluate the short order statistics of the models, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence between test sequences and model samples, and show that our proposed methods match the statistics of the music genre significantly better than the VMM.

Kernel methods have long provided powerful tools for generalizing linear statistical approaches to nonlinear settings, through an embedding of the sample to a high dimensional feature space, namely a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) [18, 28]. Examples include support vector machines, kernel PCA, and kernel CCA, among others. In these cases, data are mapped via a canonical feature map to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (of high or even infinite dimension), in which the linear operations that define the algorithms are implemented. The inner product between feature mappings need never be computed explicitly, but is given by a positive definite kernel function unique to the RKHS: this permits efficient computation without the need to deal explicitly with the feature representation. The mappings of individual points to a feature space may be generalized to mappings of probability measures[e.g. 3, Chapter 4]. We call such mappings the kernel means of the underlying random variables.

This paper studies the topic modeling problem of tagged documents and images. Higher-order relations among tagged documents and images are major and ubiquitous characteristics, and play positive roles in extracting reliable and interpretable topics. In this paper, we propose the tag-topic models (TTM) to depict such higher-order topic structural dependencies within the Markov random field (MRF) framework. First, we use the novel factor graph representation of latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)-based topic models from the MRF perspective, and present an efficient loopy belief propagation (BP) algorithm for approximate inference and parameter estimation. Second, we propose the factor hypergraph representation of TTM, and focus on both pairwise and higher-order relation modeling among tagged documents and images. Efficient loopy BP algorithm is developed to learn TTM, which encourages the topic labeling smoothness among tagged documents and images. Extensive experimental results confirm the incorporation of higher-order relations to be effective in enhancing the overall topic modeling performance, when compared with current state-of-the-art topic models, in many text and image mining tasks of broad interests such as word and link prediction, document classification, and tag recommendation.

Fitting probabilistic models to data is often difficult, due to the general intractability of the partition function and its derivatives. Here we propose a new parameter estimation technique that does not require computing an intractable normalization factor or sampling from the equilibrium distribution of the model. This is achieved by establishing dynamics that would transform the observed data distribution into the model distribution, and then setting as the objective the minimization of the KL divergence between the data distribution and the distribution produced by running the dynamics for an infinitesimal time. Score matching, minimum velocity learning, and certain forms of contrastive divergence are shown to be special cases of this learning technique. We demonstrate parameter estimation in Ising models, deep belief networks and an independent component analysis model of natural scenes. In the Ising model case, current state of the art techniques are outperformed by at least an order of magnitude in learning time, with lower error in recovered coupling parameters.

Research in reinforcement learning has produced algorithms for optimal decision making under uncertainty that fall within two main types. The first employs a Bayesian framework, where optimality improves with increased computational time. This is because the resulting planning task takes the form of a dynamic programming problem on a belief tree with an infinite number of states. The second type employs relatively simple algorithm which are shown to suffer small regret within a distribution-free framework. This paper presents a lower bound and a high probability upper bound on the optimal value function for the nodes in the Bayesian belief tree, which are analogous to similar bounds in POMDPs. The bounds are then used to create more efficient strategies for exploring the tree. The resulting algorithms are compared with the distribution-free algorithm UCB1, as well as a simpler baseline algorithm on multi-armed bandit problems.

We present a probabilistic model for natural images which is based on Gaussian scale mixtures and a simple multiscale representation. In contrast to the dominant approach to modeling whole images focusing on Markov random fields, we formulate our model in terms of a directed graphical model. We show that it is able to generate images with interesting higher-order correlations when trained on natural images or samples from an occlusion based model. More importantly, the directed model enables us to perform a principled evaluation. While it is easy to generate visually appealing images, we demonstrate that our model also yields the best performance reported to date when evaluated with respect to the cross-entropy rate, a measure tightly linked to the average log-likelihood.

We introduce the problem of reconstructing a sequence of multidimensional real vectors where some of the data are missing. This problem contains regression and mapping inversion as particular cases where the pattern of missing data is independent of the sequence index. The problem is hard because it involves possibly multivalued mappings at each vector in the sequence, where the missing variables can take more than one value given the present variables; and the set of missing variables can vary from one vector to the next. To solve this problem, we propose an algorithm based on two redundancy assumptions: vector redundancy (the data live in a low-dimensional manifold), so that the present variables constrain the missing ones; and sequence redundancy (e.g. continuity), so that consecutive vectors constrain each other. We capture the low-dimensional nature of the data in a probabilistic way with a joint density model, here the generative topographic mapping, which results in a Gaussian mixture. Candidate reconstructions at each vector are obtained as all the modes of the conditional distribution of missing variables given present variables. The reconstructed sequence is obtained by minimising a global constraint, here the sequence length, by dynamic programming. We present experimental results for a toy problem and for inverse kinematics of a robot arm.

In many real-world networks, nodes have class labels, attributes, or variables that affect the network's topology. If the topology of the network is known but the labels of the nodes are hidden, we would like to select a small subset of nodes such that, if we knew their labels, we could accurately predict the labels of all the other nodes. We develop an active learning algorithm for this problem which uses information-theoretic techniques to choose which nodes to explore. We test our algorithm on networks from three different domains: a social network, a network of English words that appear adjacently in a novel, and a marine food web. Our algorithm makes no initial assumptions about how the groups connect, and performs well even when faced with quite general types of network structure. In particular, we do not assume that nodes of the same class are more likely to be connected to each other---only that they connect to the rest of the network in similar ways.

Recovery of low-rank matrices has recently seen significant activity in many areas of science and engineering, motivated by recent theoretical results for exact reconstruction guarantees and interesting practical applications. A number of methods have been developed for this recovery problem. However, a principled method for choosing the unknown target rank is generally not provided. In this paper, we present novel recovery algorithms for estimating low-rank matrices in matrix completion and robust principal component analysis based on sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) principles. Starting from a matrix factorization formulation and enforcing the low-rank constraint in the estimates as a sparsity constraint, we develop an approach that is very effective in determining the correct rank while providing high recovery performance. We provide connections with existing methods in other similar problems and empirical results and comparisons with current state-of-the-art methods that illustrate the effectiveness of this approach.

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision making problems represented as influence diagrams. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity; this allows us to solve problems with simultaneous decisions and limited information. The algorithm is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm on randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and $10^{64}$ solutions. We show that the problem is NP-hard even if the underlying graph structure of the problem has small treewidth and the variables take on a bounded number of states, but that a fully polynomial time approximation scheme exists for these cases. Moreover, we show that the bound on the number of states is a necessary condition for any efficient approximation scheme.