Variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior inference. However, their use is typically limited to families of distributions that enjoy particular conjugacy properties. To circumvent this limitation, we propose a family of variational approximations inspired by nonparametric kernel density estimation. The locations of these kernels and their bandwidth are treated as variational parameters and optimized to improve an approximate lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Using multiple kernels allows the approximation to capture multiple modes of the posterior, unlike most other variational approximations. We demonstrate the efficacy of the nonparametric approximation with a hierarchical logistic regression model and a nonlinear matrix factorization model. We obtain predictive performance as good as or better than more specialized variational methods and sample-based approximations. The method is easy to apply to more general graphical models for which standard variational methods are difficult to derive.

We study the convergence rate of stochastic optimization of exact (NP-hard) objectives, for which only biased estimates of the gradient are available. We motivate this problem in the context of learning the structure and parameters of Ising models. We first provide a convergence-rate analysis of deterministic errors for forward-backward splitting (FBS). We then extend our analysis to biased stochastic errors, by first characterizing a family of samplers and providing a high probability bound that allows understanding not only FBS, but also proximal gradient (PG) methods. We derive some interesting conclusions: FBS requires only a logarithmically increasing number of random samples in order to converge (although at a very low rate); the required number of random samples is the same for the deterministic and the biased stochastic setting for FBS and basic PG; accelerated PG is not guaranteed to converge in the biased stochastic setting.

We present a framework for online inference in the presence of a nonexhaustively defined set of classes that incorporates supervised classification with class discovery and modeling. A Dirichlet process prior (DPP) model defined over class distributions ensures that both known and unknown class distributions originate according to a common base distribution. In an attempt to automatically discover potentially interesting class formations, the prior model is coupled with a suitably chosen data model, and sequential Monte Carlo sampling is used to perform online inference. Our research is driven by a biodetection application, where a new class of pathogen may suddenly appear, and the rapid increase in the number of samples originating from this class indicates the onset of an outbreak.

We present a max-margin nonparametric latent feature model, which unites the ideas of max-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics to discover discriminative latent features for link prediction and automatically infer the unknown latent social dimension. By minimizing a hinge-loss using the linear expectation operator, we can perform posterior inference efficiently without dealing with a highly nonlinear link likelihood function; by using a fully-Bayesian formulation, we can avoid tuning regularization constants. Experimental results on real datasets appear to demonstrate the benefits inherited from max-margin learning and fully-Bayesian nonparametric inference.

Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) seeks a low dimensional representation of a data set in the presence of independent spherical Gaussian noise. The maximum likelihood solution for the model is an eigenvalue problem on the sample covariance matrix. In this paper we consider the situation where the data variance is already partially explained by other actors, for example sparse conditional dependencies between the covariates, or temporal correlations leaving some residual variance. We decompose the residual variance into its components through a generalised eigenvalue problem, which we call residual component analysis (RCA). We explore a range of new algorithms that arise from the framework, including one that factorises the covariance of a Gaussian density into a low-rank and a sparse-inverse component. We illustrate the ideas on the recovery of a protein-signaling network, a gene expression time-series data set and the recovery of the human skeleton from motion capture 3-D cloud data.

In this paper we present a fully Bayesian latent variable model which exploits conditional nonlinear(in)-dependence structures to learn an efficient latent representation. The latent space is factorized to represent shared and private information from multiple views of the data. In contrast to previous approaches, we introduce a relaxation to the discrete segmentation and allow for a "softly" shared latent space. Further, Bayesian techniques allow us to automatically estimate the dimensionality of the latent spaces. The model is capable of capturing structure underlying extremely high dimensional spaces. This is illustrated by modelling unprocessed images with tenths of thousands of pixels. This also allows us to directly generate novel images from the trained model by sampling from the discovered latent spaces. We also demonstrate the model by prediction of human pose in an ambiguous setting. Our Bayesian framework allows us to perform disambiguation in a principled manner by including latent space priors which incorporate the dynamic nature of the data.

Belief Propagation (BP) is one of the most popular methods for inference in probabilistic graphical models. BP is guaranteed to return the correct answer for tree structures, but can be incorrect or non-convergent for loopy graphical models. Recently, several new approximate inference algorithms based on cavity distribution have been proposed. These methods can account for the effect of loops by incorporating the dependency between BP messages. Alternatively, region-based approximations (that lead to methods such as Generalized Belief Propagation) improve upon BP by considering interactions within small clusters of variables, thus taking small loops within these clusters into account. This paper introduces an approach, Generalized Loop Correction (GLC), that benefits from both of these types of loop correction. We show how GLC relates to these two families of inference methods, then provide empirical evidence that GLC works effectively in general, and can be significantly more accurate than both correction schemes.

This paper revisits the problem of analyzing multiple ratings given by different judges. Different from previous work that focuses on distilling the true labels from noisy crowdsourcing ratings, we emphasize gaining diagnostic insights into our in-house well-trained judges. We generalize the well-known DawidSkene model (Dawid & Skene, 1979) to a spectrum of probabilistic models under the same "TrueLabel + Confusion" paradigm, and show that our proposed hierarchical Bayesian model, called HybridConfusion, consistently outperforms DawidSkene on both synthetic and real-world data sets.

Many algorithms and applications involve repeatedly solving variations of the same inference problem; for example we may want to introduce new evidence to the model or perform updates to conditional dependencies. The goal of adaptive inference is to take advantage of what is preserved in the model and perform inference more rapidly than from scratch. In this paper, we describe techniques for adaptive inference on general graphs that support marginal computation and updates to the conditional probabilities and dependencies in logarithmic time. We give experimental results for an implementation of our algorithm, and demonstrate its potential performance benefit in the study of protein structure.

We consider conditions that allow us to find an optimal strategy for sequential decisions from a given data situation. For the case where all interventions are unconditional (atomic), identifiability has been discussed by Pearl & Robins (1995). We argue here that an optimal strategy must be conditional, i.e. take the information available at each decision point into account. We show that the identification of an optimal sequential decision strategy is more restrictive, in the sense that conditional interventions might not always be identified when atomic interventions are. We further demonstrate that a simple graphical criterion for the identifiability of an optimal strategy can be given.