Uncertainty
Informed Source Separation: A Bayesian Tutorial
Source separation problems are ubiquitous in the physical sciences; any situation where signals are superimposed calls for source separation to estimate the original signals. In this tutorial I will discuss the Bayesian approach to the source separation problem. This approach has a specific advantage in that it requires the designer to explicitly describe the signal model in addition to any other information or assumptions that go into the problem description. This leads naturally to the idea of informed source separation, where the algorithm design incorporates relevant information about the specific problem. This approach promises to enable researchers to design their own high-quality algorithms that are specifically tailored to the problem at hand.
Equivalence of distance-based and RKHS-based statistics in hypothesis testing
Sejdinovic, Dino, Sriperumbudur, Bharath, Gretton, Arthur, Fukumizu, Kenji
We provide a unifying framework linking two classes of statistics used in two-sample and independence testing: on the one hand, the energy distances and distance covariances from the statistics literature; on the other, maximum mean discrepancies (MMD), that is, distances between embeddings of distributions to reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), as established in machine learning. In the case where the energy distance is computed with a semimetric of negative type, a positive definite kernel, termed distance kernel, may be defined such that the MMD corresponds exactly to the energy distance. Conversely, for any positive definite kernel, we can interpret the MMD as energy distance with respect to some negative-type semimetric. This equivalence readily extends to distance covariance using kernels on the product space. We determine the class of probability distributions for which the test statistics are consistent against all alternatives. Finally, we investigate the performance of the family of distance kernels in two-sample and independence tests: we show in particular that the energy distance most commonly employed in statistics is just one member of a parametric family of kernels, and that other choices from this family can yield more powerful tests.
Approximate Inference in Continuous Determinantal Point Processes
Affandi, Raja Hafiz, Fox, Emily B., Taskar, Ben
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are random point processes well-suited for modeling repulsion. In machine learning, the focus of DPP-based models has been on diverse subset selection from a discrete and finite base set. This discrete setting admits an efficient sampling algorithm based on the eigendecomposition of the defining kernel matrix. Recently, there has been growing interest in using DPPs defined on continuous spaces. While the discrete-DPP sampler extends formally to the continuous case, computationally, the steps required are not tractable in general. In this paper, we present two efficient DPP sampling schemes that apply to a wide range of kernel functions: one based on low rank approximations via Nystrom and random Fourier feature techniques and another based on Gibbs sampling. We demonstrate the utility of continuous DPPs in repulsive mixture modeling and synthesizing human poses spanning activity spaces.
Exploiting correlation and budget constraints in Bayesian multi-armed bandit optimization
Hoffman, Matthew W., Shahriari, Bobak, de Freitas, Nando
We address the problem of finding the maximizer of a nonlinear smooth function, that can only be evaluated point-wise, subject to constraints on the number of permitted function evaluations. This problem is also known as fixed-budget best arm identification in the multi-armed bandit literature. We introduce a Bayesian approach for this problem and show that it empirically outperforms both the existing frequentist counterpart and other Bayesian optimization methods. The Bayesian approach places emphasis on detailed modelling, including the modelling of correlations among the arms. As a result, it can perform well in situations where the number of arms is much larger than the number of allowed function evaluation, whereas the frequentist counterpart is inapplicable. This feature enables us to develop and deploy practical applications, such as automatic machine learning toolboxes. The paper presents comprehensive comparisons of the proposed approach, Thompson sampling, classical Bayesian optimization techniques, more recent Bayesian bandit approaches, and state-of-the-art best arm identification methods. This is the first comparison of many of these methods in the literature and allows us to examine the relative merits of their different features.
Tracking Creative Musical Structure: The Hunt for the Intrinsically Motivated Generative Agent
Smith, Benjamin (Indiana University)
Neural networks have been employed to learn, generalize, and generate musical pieces with a constrained notion of creativity. Yet, these computational models typically suffer from an inability to characterize and reproduce long-term dependencies indicative of musical structure. Hierarchical and deep learning models propose to remedy this deficiency, but remain to be adequately proven. We describe and examine a novel dynamic bayesian network model with the goal of learning and reproducing longer-term formal musical structures. Incorporating a computational model of intrinsic motivation and novelty, this hierarchical probabilistic model is able to generate pastiches based on exemplars.
Learning Gaussian Graphical Models with Observed or Latent FVSs
Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) or Gauss Markov random fields are widely used in many applications, and the trade-off between the modeling capacity and the efficiency of learning and inference has been an important research problem. In this paper, we study the family of GGMs with small feedback vertex sets (FVSs), where an FVS is a set of nodes whose removal breaks all the cycles. Exact inference such as computing the marginal distributions and the partition function has complexity $O(k^{2}n)$ using message-passing algorithms, where k is the size of the FVS, and n is the total number of nodes. We propose efficient structure learning algorithms for two cases: 1) All nodes are observed, which is useful in modeling social or flight networks where the FVS nodes often correspond to a small number of high-degree nodes, or hubs, while the rest of the networks is modeled by a tree. Regardless of the maximum degree, without knowing the full graph structure, we can exactly compute the maximum likelihood estimate in $O(kn^2+n^2\log n)$ if the FVS is known or in polynomial time if the FVS is unknown but has bounded size. 2) The FVS nodes are latent variables, where structure learning is equivalent to decomposing a inverse covariance matrix (exactly or approximately) into the sum of a tree-structured matrix and a low-rank matrix. By incorporating efficient inference into the learning steps, we can obtain a learning algorithm using alternating low-rank correction with complexity $O(kn^{2}+n^{2}\log n)$ per iteration. We also perform experiments using both synthetic data as well as real data of flight delays to demonstrate the modeling capacity with FVSs of various sizes.
Pattern-Coupled Sparse Bayesian Learning for Recovery of Block-Sparse Signals
Fang, Jun, Shen, Yanning, Li, Hongbin, Wang, Pu
We consider the problem of recovering block-sparse signals whose structures are unknown \emph{a priori}. Block-sparse signals with nonzero coefficients occurring in clusters arise naturally in many practical scenarios. However, the knowledge of the block structure is usually unavailable in practice. In this paper, we develop a new sparse Bayesian learning method for recovery of block-sparse signals with unknown cluster patterns. Specifically, a pattern-coupled hierarchical Gaussian prior model is introduced to characterize the statistical dependencies among coefficients, in which a set of hyperparameters are employed to control the sparsity of signal coefficients. Unlike the conventional sparse Bayesian learning framework in which each individual hyperparameter is associated independently with each coefficient, in this paper, the prior for each coefficient not only involves its own hyperparameter, but also the hyperparameters of its immediate neighbors. In doing this way, the sparsity patterns of neighboring coefficients are related to each other and the hierarchical model has the potential to encourage structured-sparse solutions. The hyperparameters, along with the sparse signal, are learned by maximizing their posterior probability via an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Numerical results show that the proposed algorithm presents uniform superiority over other existing methods in a series of experiments.
Adaptive Measurement-Based Policy-Driven QoS Management with Fuzzy-Rule-based Resource Allocation
Yerima, Suleiman Y., Parr, Gerard P., McClean, Sally I., Morrow, Philip J.
Fixed and wireless networks are increasingly converging towards common connectivity with IP-based core networks. Providing effective end-to-end resource and QoS management in such complex heterogeneous converged network scenarios requires unified, adaptive and scalable solutions to integrate and co-ordinate diverse QoS mechanisms of different access technologies with IP-based QoS. Policy-Based Network Management (PBNM) is one approach that could be employed to address this challenge. Hence, a policy-based framework for end-to-end QoS management in converged networks, CNQF (Converged Networks QoS Management Framework) has been proposed within our project. In this paper, the CNQF architecture, a Java implementation of its prototype and experimental validation of key elements are discussed. We then present a fuzzy-based CNQF resource management approach and study the performance of our implementation with real traffic flows on an experimental testbed. The results demonstrate the efficacy of our resource-adaptive approach for practical PBNM systems.
Pseudo-likelihood methods for community detection in large sparse networks
Amini, Arash A., Chen, Aiyou, Bickel, Peter J., Levina, Elizaveta
Many algorithms have been proposed for fitting network models with communities, but most of them do not scale well to large networks, and often fail on sparse networks. Here we propose a new fast pseudo-likelihood method for fitting the stochastic block model for networks, as well as a variant that allows for an arbitrary degree distribution by conditioning on degrees. We show that the algorithms perform well under a range of settings, including on very sparse networks, and illustrate on the example of a network of political blogs. We also propose spectral clustering with perturbations, a method of independent interest, which works well on sparse networks where regular spectral clustering fails, and use it to provide an initial value for pseudo-likelihood. We prove that pseudo-likelihood provides consistent estimates of the communities under a mild condition on the starting value, for the case of a block model with two communities.
Thompson Sampling for Complex Bandit Problems
Gopalan, Aditya, Mannor, Shie, Mansour, Yishay
We consider stochastic multi-armed bandit problems with complex actions over a set of basic arms, where the decision maker plays a complex action rather than a basic arm in each round. The reward of the complex action is some function of the basic arms' rewards, and the feedback observed may not necessarily be the reward per-arm. For instance, when the complex actions are subsets of the arms, we may only observe the maximum reward over the chosen subset. Thus, feedback across complex actions may be coupled due to the nature of the reward function. We prove a frequentist regret bound for Thompson sampling in a very general setting involving parameter, action and observation spaces and a likelihood function over them. The bound holds for discretely-supported priors over the parameter space and without additional structural properties such as closed-form posteriors, conjugate prior structure or independence across arms. The regret bound scales logarithmically with time but, more importantly, with an improved constant that non-trivially captures the coupling across complex actions due to the structure of the rewards. As applications, we derive improved regret bounds for classes of complex bandit problems involving selecting subsets of arms, including the first nontrivial regret bounds for nonlinear MAX reward feedback from subsets.