The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric models but using simple, myopic planning strategies such as Thompson sampling. We ask whether it is feasible and truly beneficial to combine rich probabilistic models with a closer approximation to fully Bayesian planning. First, we use a collection of counterexamples to show formal problems with the over-optimism inherent in Thompson sampling. Then we leverage state-of-the-art techniques in efficient Bayes-adaptive planning and non-parametric Bayesian methods to perform qualitatively better than both existing conventional algorithms and Thompson sampling on two contextual bandit-like problems.

It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on which the epidemics is taking place is not specified in advance but evolves through time, accounting for the temporal evolution of the interactions involving infective individuals. Without assuming the existence of a fixed underlying network model, the stochastic process introduced describes, in a flexible and realistic manner, epidemic spread in non-uniformly mixing and possibly heterogeneous populations. It is shown how to fit such a (parametrised) model by means of Approximate Bayesian Computation methods based on graph-valued statistics. The concepts and statistical methods described in this paper are finally applied to a real epidemic dataset, related to the spread of HIV in Cuba in presence of a contact tracing system, which permits one to reconstruct partly the evolution of the graph of sexual partners diagnosed HIV positive between 1986 and 2006.

One of the most tedious tasks in the application of machine learning is model selection, i.e. hyperparameter selection. Fortunately, recent progress has been made in the automation of this process, through the use of sequential model-based optimization (SMBO) methods. This can be used to optimize a cross-validation performance of a learning algorithm over the value of its hyperparameters. However, it is well known that ensembles of learned models almost consistently outperform a single model, even if properly selected. In this paper, we thus propose an extension of SMBO methods that automatically constructs such ensembles. This method builds on a recently proposed ensemble construction paradigm known as agnostic Bayesian learning. In experiments on 22 regression and 39 classification data sets, we confirm the success of this proposed approach, which is able to outperform model selection with SMBO.

Networks play a central role in modern data analysis, enabling us to reason about systems by studying the relationships between their parts. Most often in network analysis, the edges are given. However, in many systems it is difficult or impossible to measure the network directly. Examples of latent networks include economic interactions linking financial instruments and patterns of reciprocity in gang violence. In these cases, we are limited to noisy observations of events associated with each node. To enable analysis of these implicit networks, we develop a probabilistic model that combines mutually-exciting point processes with random graph models. We show how the Poisson superposition principle enables an elegant auxiliary variable formulation and a fully-Bayesian, parallel inference algorithm. We evaluate this new model empirically on several datasets.

Much of human knowledge sits in large databases of unstructured text. Leveraging this knowledge requires algorithms that extract and record metadata on unstructured text documents. Assigning topics to documents will enable intelligent search, statistical characterization, and meaningful classification. Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is the state-of-the-art in topic classification. Here, we perform a systematic theoretical and numerical analysis that demonstrates that current optimization techniques for LDA often yield results which are not accurate in inferring the most suitable model parameters. Adapting approaches for community detection in networks, we propose a new algorithm which displays high-reproducibility and high-accuracy, and also has high computational efficiency. We apply it to a large set of documents in the English Wikipedia and reveal its hierarchical structure. Our algorithm promises to make "big data" text analysis systems more reliable.

Infinite Tucker Decomposition (InfTucker) and random function prior models, as nonparametric Bayesian models on infinite exchangeable arrays, are more powerful models than widely-used multilinear factorization methods including Tucker and PARAFAC decomposition, (partly) due to their capability of modeling nonlinear relationships between array elements. Despite their great predictive performance and sound theoretical foundations, they cannot handle massive data due to a prohibitively high training time. To overcome this limitation, we present Distributed Infinite Tucker (DINTUCKER), a large-scale nonlinear tensor decomposition algorithm on MAPREDUCE. While maintaining the predictive accuracy of InfTucker, it is scalable on massive data. DINTUCKER is based on a new hierarchical Bayesian model that enables local training of InfTucker on subarrays and information integration from all local training results. We use distributed stochastic gradient descent, coupled with variational inference, to train this model. We apply DINTUCKER to multidimensional arrays with billions of elements from applications in the "Read the Web" project (Carlson et al., 2010) and in information security and compare it with the state-of-the-art large-scale tensor decomposition method, GigaTensor. On both datasets, DINTUCKER achieves significantly higher prediction accuracy with less computational time.

Supervised classification is one of the most common tasks considered in machine learning and statistics (Bishop, 2007; Duda et al., 2000; Hastie et al., 2009; Ripley, 1996), with a wide variety of applications over practically all fields of science and engineering. Today, there exists a myriad of different classification methods, out of which those based on probabilistic models are widely accepted as the most sensible way to solve classification problems. Probabilistic methods are often themselves classified as either generative or discriminative, depending on whether one directly models the class posterior distribution (discriminative classifiers) or first the joint distribution of observed features (variables) conditional on class training data and then the posterior distribution of labels is obtained through Bayes' rule. There has been a debate around which of these approaches should be preferred in a particular application, see Ripley (1996), Hastie et al. (2009), Bishop (2007), and Pernkopf and Bilmes (2005), however, both classes of methods continue to be supported and further developed. One of the popular methods of probabilistic classification is based on encoding feature dependencies with Bayesian networks (Friedman et al., 1997). Such models can often represent data structures more faithfully than the naive Bayes classifier, which has been shown to yield dramatic improvements in classification accuracy in some cases. Numerous variants and extensions of the original framework introduced by Friedman et al. (1997) have been considered over the years, e.g.

The analysis of comorbidity is an open and complex research field in the branch of psychiatry, where clinical experience and several studies suggest that the relation among the psychiatric disorders may have etiological and treatment implications. In this paper, we are interested in applying latent feature modeling to find the latent structure behind the psychiatric disorders that can help to examine and explain the relationships among them. To this end, we use the large amount of information collected in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) database and propose to model these data using a nonparametric latent model based on the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Due to the discrete nature of the data, we first need to adapt the observation model for discrete random variables. We propose a generative model in which the observations are drawn from a multinomial-logit distribution given the IBP matrix. The implementation of an efficient Gibbs sampler is accomplished using the Laplace approximation, which allows integrating out the weighting factors of the multinomial-logit likelihood model. We also provide a variational inference algorithm for this model, which provides a complementary (and less expensive in terms of computational complexity) alternative to the Gibbs sampler allowing us to deal with a larger number of data. Finally, we use the model to analyze comorbidity among the psychiatric disorders diagnosed by experts from the NESARC database.

Many relations of scientific interest are nonlinear, and even in linear systems distributions are often non-Gaussian, for example in fMRI BOLD data. A class of search procedures for causal relations in high dimensional data relies on sample derived conditional independence decisions. The most common applications rely on Gaussian tests that can be systematically erroneous in nonlinear non-Gaussian cases. Recent work (Gretton et al. (2009), Tillman et al. (2009), Zhang et al. (2011)) has proposed conditional independence tests using Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). Among these, perhaps the most efficient has been KCI (Kernel Conditional Independence, Zhang et al. (2011)), with computational requirements that grow effectively at least as O(N3), placing it out of range of large sample size analysis, and restricting its applicability to high dimensional data sets. We propose a class of O(N2) tests using conditional correlation independence (CCI) that require a few seconds on a standard workstation for tests that require tens of minutes to hours for the KCI method, depending on degree of parallelization, with similar accuracy. For accuracy on difficult nonlinear, non-Gaussian data sets, we also compare a recent test due to Harris & Drton (2012), applicable to nonlinear, non-Gaussian distributions in the Gaussian copula, as well as to partial correlation, a linear Gaussian test.

In this paper we demonstrate that tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers for Bayesian models by recursively subsampling observations without replacement can improve the performance of baseline samplers in terms of effective sample size per computation. We present two tempering by subsampling algorithms, subsampled parallel tempering and subsampled tempered transitions. We provide an asymptotic analysis of the computational cost of tempering by subsampling, verify that tempering by subsampling costs less than traditional tempering, and demonstrate both algorithms on Bayesian approaches to learning the mean of a high dimensional multivariate Normal and estimating Gaussian process hyperparameters.