Structured prediction tasks in machine learning involve the simultaneous prediction of multiple labels. This is typically done by maximizing a score function on the space of labels, which decomposes as a sum of pairwise elements, each depending on two specific labels. Intuitively, the more pairwise terms are used, the better the expected accuracy. However, there is currently no theoretical account of this intuition. This paper takes a significant step in this direction. We formulate the problem as classifying the vertices of a known graph $G=(V,E)$, where the vertices and edges of the graph are labelled and correlate semi-randomly with the ground truth. We show that the prospects for achieving low expected Hamming error depend on the structure of the graph $G$ in interesting ways. For example, if $G$ is a very poor expander, like a path, then large expected Hamming error is inevitable. Our main positive result shows that, for a wide class of graphs including 2D grid graphs common in machine vision applications, there is a polynomial-time algorithm with small and information-theoretically near-optimal expected error. Our results provide a first step toward a theoretical justification for the empirical success of the efficient approximate inference algorithms that are used for structured prediction in models where exact inference is intractable.

Gibbs sampling is a workhorse for Bayesian inference but has several limitations when used for parameter estimation, and is often much slower than non-sampling inference methods. SAME (State Augmentation for Marginal Estimation) \cite{Doucet99,Doucet02} is an approach to MAP parameter estimation which gives improved parameter estimates over direct Gibbs sampling. SAME can be viewed as cooling the posterior parameter distribution and allows annealed search for the MAP parameters, often yielding very high quality (lower loss) estimates. But it does so at the expense of additional samples per iteration and generally slower performance. On the other hand, SAME dramatically increases the parallelism in the sampling schedule, and is an excellent match for modern (SIMD) hardware. In this paper we explore the application of SAME to graphical model inference on modern hardware. We show that combining SAME with factored sample representation (or approximation) gives throughput competitive with the fastest symbolic methods, but with potentially better quality. We describe experiments on Latent Dirichlet Allocation, achieving speeds similar to the fastest reported methods (online Variational Bayes) and lower cross-validated loss than other LDA implementations. The method is simple to implement and should be applicable to many other models.

In this study, we enrich the framework of nonparametric kernel Bayesian inference via the flexible incorporation of certain probabilistic models, such as additive Gaussian noise models. Nonparametric inference expressed in terms of kernel means, which is called kernel Bayesian inference, has been studied using basic rules such as the kernel sum rule (KSR), kernel chain rule, kernel product rule, and kernel Bayes' rule (KBR). However, the current framework used for kernel Bayesian inference deals only with nonparametric inference and it cannot allow inference when combined with probabilistic models. In this study, we introduce a novel KSR, called model-based KSR (Mb-KSR), which exploits the knowledge obtained from some probabilistic models of conditional distributions. The incorporation of Mb-KSR into nonparametric kernel Bayesian inference facilitates more flexible kernel Bayesian inference than nonparametric inference. We focus on combinations of Mb-KSR, Non-KSR, and KBR, and we propose a filtering algorithm for state space models, which combines nonparametric learning of the observation process using kernel means and additive Gaussian noise models of the transition dynamics. The idea of the Mb-KSR for additive Gaussian noise models can be extended to more general noise model cases, including a conjugate pair with a positive-definite kernel and a probabilistic model.

The Infinite Relational Model (IRM) is a probabilistic model for relational data clustering that partitions objects into clusters based on observed relationships. This paper presents Averaged CVB (ACVB) solutions for IRM, convergence-guaranteed and practically useful fast Collapsed Variational Bayes (CVB) inferences. We first derive ordinary CVB and CVB0 for IRM based on the lower bound maximization. CVB solutions yield deterministic iterative procedures for inferring IRM given the truncated number of clusters. Our proposal includes CVB0 updates of hyperparameters including the concentration parameter of the Dirichlet Process, which has not been studied in the literature. To make the CVB more practically useful, we further study the CVB inference in two aspects. First, we study the convergence issues and develop a convergence-guaranteed algorithm for any CVB-based inferences called ACVB, which enables automatic convergence detection and frees non-expert practitioners from difficult and costly manual monitoring of inference processes. Second, we present a few techniques for speeding up IRM inferences. In particular, we describe the linear time inference of CVB0, allowing the IRM for larger relational data uses. The ACVB solutions of IRM showed comparable or better performance compared to existing inference methods in experiments, and provide deterministic, faster, and easier convergence detection.

Knowledge-based or Artificial Intelligence techniques are used increasingly as alternatives to more classical techniques to model ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS. Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in environmental modelling has increased with recognition of its potential. In this paper we examine the DIFFERENT TECHNIQUES of Artificial intelligence with profound examples of human perception, learning and reasoning to solve complex problems. However with the increase of complexity better methods are required. Keeping in view of the above some researchers introduced the idea of hybrid mechanism in which two or more methods can be combined which seems to be a positive effort for creating a more complex; advanced and intelligent system which has the capability to in- cooperate human decisions thus driving the landscape changes.

Agent programming is mostly a symbolic discipline and, as such, draws little benefits from probabilistic areas as machine learning and graphical models. However, the greatest objective of agent research is the achievement of autonomy in dynamical and complex environments --- a goal that implies embracing uncertainty and therefore the entailed representations, algorithms and techniques. This paper proposes an innovative and conflict free two layer approach to agent programming that uses already established methods and tools from both symbolic and probabilistic artificial intelligence. Moreover, this framework is illustrated by means of a widely used agent programming example, GoldMiners.

We propose a parsimonious topic model for text corpora. In related models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), all words are modeled topic-specifically, even though many words occur with similar frequencies across different topics. Our modeling determines salient words for each topic, which have topic-specific probabilities, with the rest explained by a universal shared model. Further, in LDA all topics are in principle present in every document. By contrast our model gives sparse topic representation, determining the (small) subset of relevant topics for each document. We derive a Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), balancing model complexity and goodness of fit. Here, interestingly, we identify an effective sample size and corresponding penalty specific to each parameter type in our model. We minimize BIC to jointly determine our entire model -- the topic-specific words, document-specific topics, all model parameter values, {\it and} the total number of topics -- in a wholly unsupervised fashion. Results on three text corpora and an image dataset show that our model achieves higher test set likelihood and better agreement with ground-truth class labels, compared to LDA and to a model designed to incorporate sparsity.

We present a novel, scalable and Bayesian approach to modelling the occurrence of pairs of symbols (i,j) drawn from a large vocabulary. Observed pairs are assumed to be generated by a simple popularity based selection process followed by censoring using a preference function. By basing inference on the well-founded principle of variational bounding, and using new site-independent bounds, we show how a scalable inference procedure can be obtained for large data sets. State of the art results are presented on real-world movie viewing data.

Log-linear models are the popular workhorses of analyzing contingency tables. A log-linear parameterization of an interaction model can be more expressive than a direct parameterization based on probabilities, leading to a powerful way of defining restrictions derived from marginal, conditional and context-specific independence. However, parameter estimation is often simpler under a direct parameterization, provided that the model enjoys certain decomposability properties. Here we introduce a cyclical projection algorithm for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of log-linear parameters under an arbitrary context-specific graphical log-linear model, which needs not satisfy criteria of decomposability. We illustrate that lifting the restriction of decomposability makes the models more expressive, such that additional context-specific independencies embedded in real data can be identified. It is also shown how a context-specific graphical model can correspond to a non-hierarchical log-linear parameterization with a concise interpretation. This observation can pave way to further development of non-hierarchical log-linear models, which have been largely neglected due to their believed lack of interpretability.

As a well-known clustering algorithm, Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) allows each input sample to belong to more than one cluster, providing more flexibility than non-fuzzy clustering methods. However, the accuracy of FCM is subject to false detections caused by noisy records, weak feature selection and low certainty of the algorithm in some cases. The false detections are very important in some decision-making application domains like network security and medical diagnosis, where weak decisions based on such false detections may lead to catastrophic outcomes. They are mainly emerged from making decisions about a subset of records that do not provide enough evidence to make a good decision. In this paper, we propose a method for detecting such ambiguous records in FCM by introducing a certainty factor to decrease invalid detections. This approach enables us to send the detected ambiguous records to another discrimination method for a deeper investigation, thus increasing the accuracy by lowering the error rate. Most of the records are still processed quickly and with low error rate which prevents performance loss compared to similar hybrid methods. Experimental results of applying the proposed method on several datasets from different domains show a significant decrease in error rate as well as improved sensitivity of the algorithm.