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 Uncertainty


Submitted to MEDINF0.77

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Almost one-half of the total cost of drugs spent in treating hospitalized patients is spend on antibiotics (1,2), and a significant part of this therapy is associated with serious misuse (2,3,4,5). One problem involves incorrect selection of a therapeutic regimen [4], while another involves the incorrect decision to administer any antibiotic (2,4,5). For example, one recent study concluded that one out of every four people in the United States was given penicillin during a recent year, and nearly 907. of these preL,criptions were oahccessary (6).





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Case-based reasoning is used extensively by people in A second driving force in the evolutionary history of CBR both expert and commonsense situations. It provides a was dissatisfaction with rule-based reasoning (expert systems wide range of advantages.


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Step 6 is a goal-assertion the input, another algorithm might result. Thus one could resolution that functions similarly to the goal-goal resolution break a into a[1],..., a [length(a)/2] and a [length(a)/ above. The final synthesized program is: 2 1],..., a[length(a)] and find an algorithm that recursively calls f on both the first and second halves of its f(x) if x NIL then 0 else car(x) f(cdr(x)).


Categorical and Probabilistic Reasoning in Medical Diagnosis

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How do practicing physicians make clinical decisions? What techniques can we use in the computer to produce programs that exhibit medical expertise? Our interest in these questions is motivated by our desire: 1. to provide (by computer) expert medical consultation to general practitioners or paramedical personnel in communities where such consultation is normally unavailable; 2. to come to understand the reasoning processes of expert doctors so that we may improve the teaching of their skills to medical students; and 3. to advance the techniques of artificial intelligence, especially as applied to medicine (AIM), to support our other goals. In other publications, we have described research by our group on programs to take the history of the present illness of a patient with renal disease (Pauker and Gorry, 1976; Szolovits and Pauker, 1976) and to advise the physician in the administration of the drug digitalis to patients with heart disease (Gorry et al., 1978; Silverman, 1975; Swartout, 1977).



Contributors Foreword by Allen Newell xvii

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Chapter 10 Chapter 11 Chapter 12 Using Rules The Evolution of MYCIN's Rule Form The Structure of the MYCIN System William van Melle Details of the Consultation System Edward H. Shortliffe Details of the Revised Therapy Algorithm WiUiam J. Clancey Building a Knowledge Base Knowledge Engineering Completeness and Consistency in a Rule-Based System Motoi Suwa, A. Carlisle Scott, and Edward H. Shortliffe Interactive Transfer of Expertise Randall Davis Reasoning Under Uncertainty Uncertainty and Evidential Support A Model of Inexact Reasoning in Medicine Edward H. Shortliffe and Bruce G. Buchanan Probabilistic Reasoning and Certainty Factors J. Barclay Adams 55 67 78 133 149 159 171 209 233 263