Label shift, a prevalent challenge in supervised learning, arises when the class prior distribution of test data differs from that of training data, leading to significant degradation in classifier performance. To accurately estimate the test priors and enhance classification accuracy, we propose a Bayesian framework for label shift estimation, termed Full Maximum A Posterior Label Shift (FMAPLS), along with its online version, online-FMAPLS. Leveraging batch and online Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms, these methods jointly and dynamically optimize Dirichlet hyperparameters $\boldsymbolα$ and class priors $\boldsymbolπ$, thereby overcoming the rigid constraints of the existing Maximum A Posterior Label Shift (MAPLS) approach. Moreover, we introduce a linear surrogate function (LSF) to replace gradient-based hyperparameter updates, yielding closed-form solutions that reduce computational complexity while retaining asymptotic equivalence. The online variant substitutes the batch E-step with a stochastic approximation, enabling real-time adaptation to streaming data. Furthermore, our theoretical analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off between online convergence rate and estimation accuracy. Extensive experiments on CIFAR100 and ImageNet datasets under shuffled long-tail and Dirichlet test priors demonstrate that FMAPLS and online-FMAPLS respectively achieve up to 40% and 12% lower KL divergence and substantial improvements in post-shift accuracy over state-of-the-art baselines, particularly under severe class imbalance and distributional uncertainty. These results confirm the robustness, scalability, and suitability of the proposed methods for large-scale and dynamic learning scenarios.

Department of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Physical Sciences and Earth Sciences, University of Messina, 8166 Messina, Italy Complex and even chaotic dynamics, though prevalent in many natural and engineered systems, has been largely avoided in the design of electromechanical systems due to concerns about wear and controlability. Here, we demonstrate that complex dynamics might be particularly advantageous in soft robotics, offering new functionalities beyond motion not easily achievable with traditional actuation methods. We designed and realized resilient magnetic soft actuators capable of operating in a tunable dynamic regime for tens of thousands cycles without fatigue. We experimentally demonstrated the application of these actuators for true random number generation and stochastic computing. These findings show that exploring the complex dynamics in soft robotics would extend the application scenarios in soft computing, human-robot interaction and collaborative robots as we demonstrate with biomimetic blinking and randomized voice modulation. A large number of mechanical systems, including simple ones such as the double pendulum, exhibit dynamics characterized by deterministic periodic and chaotic responses depending on the excitation frequency f and amplitude A of the applied force [1]. Mechanical systems with a tendency to chaotisation demonstrate multiple resonances and various transitions to chaos [2]. Today, the concept of complexity and, especially, deterministic chaos that refers to systems without stochastic fluctuations jet losing stability of phase space trajectories is explored for a variety of directions [3] even including biological systems [4] or optics [5]. In particular, chaos is a fundamental aspect of electromechanical systems and is broadly explored in motion planning for mobile rigid robots, fluid mixing, and improving energy harvesting, as well as in mechanisms used in washing machines, dishwashers, and air conditioners [6]. Although the analysis of traditional robotics and mechanisms has revealed inherent chaotic dynamics [7], chaos can also be intentionally generated through nonlinear feedback [6] to achieve specific functionalities. In contrast to rigid mechanisms, soft actuators can facilitate transition into complex dynamics without the need for dedicated feedback algorithms. Mechanically soft actuators do not possess any rigid components in their embodiment rendering them ideally suited to explore complex and even chaotic dynamics which is typically observed at higher frequencies (Supplementary Tables 1 and 2). The inherent nonlinear oscillations emerging in soft actuators for specific parameter values [8, 9] can be applied for secure, biomimetic, and soft computing applications.

This study develops a hierarchical Bayesian framework that integrates expert domain knowledge to quantify player-specific effects in expected goals (xG) estimation, addressing a limitation of standard models that treat all players as identical finishers. Using 9,970 shots from StatsBomb's 2015-16 data and Football Manager 2017 ratings, we combine Bayesian logistic regression with informed priors to stabilise player-level estimates, especially for players with few shots. The hierarchical model reduces posterior uncertainty relative to weak priors and achieves strong external validity: hierarchical and baseline predictions correlate at R2 = 0.75, while an XGBoost benchmark validated against StatsBomb xG reaches R2 = 0.833. The model uncovers interpretable specialisation profiles, including one-on-one finishing (Aguero, Suarez, Belotti, Immobile, Martial), long-range shooting (Pogba), and first-touch execution (Insigne, Salah, Gameiro). It also identifies latent ability in underperforming players such as Immobile and Belotti. The framework supports counterfactual "what-if" analysis by reallocating shots between players under identical contexts. Case studies show that Sansone would generate +2.2 xG from Berardi's chances, driven largely by high-pressure situations, while Vardy-Giroud substitutions reveal strong asymmetry: replacing Vardy with Giroud results in a large decline (about -7 xG), whereas the reverse substitution has only a small effect (about -1 xG). This work provides an uncertainty-aware tool for player evaluation, recruitment, and tactical planning, and offers a general approach for domains where individual skill and contextual factors jointly shape performance.

Every day we share our personal information through digital systems which are constantly exposed to threats. For this reason, security-oriented disciplines of signal processing have received increasing attention in the last decades: multimedia forensics, digital watermarking, biometrics, network monitoring, steganography and steganalysis are just a few examples. Even though each of these fields has its own peculiarities, they all have to deal with a common problem: the presence of one or more adversaries aiming at making the system fail. Adversarial Signal Processing lays the basis of a general theory that takes into account the impact that the presence of an adversary has on the design of effective signal processing tools. By focusing on the application side of Adversarial Signal Processing, namely adversarial information fusion in distributed sensor networks, and adopting a game-theoretic approach, this thesis contributes to the above mission by addressing four issues. First, we address decision fusion in distributed sensor networks by developing a novel soft isolation defense scheme that protect the network from adversaries, specifically, Byzantines. Second, we develop an optimum decision fusion strategy in the presence of Byzantines. In the next step, we propose a technique to reduce the complexity of the optimum fusion by relying on a novel near-optimum message passing algorithm based on factor graphs. Finally, we introduce a defense mechanism to protect decentralized networks running consensus algorithm against data falsification attacks.

Reliable positioning in GNSS-challenged environments remains a critical challenge for navigation systems. Tightly coupled GNSS/IMU fusion improves robustness but remains vulnerable to non-Gaussian noise and outliers. We present a robust and adaptive factor graph-based fusion framework that directly integrates GNSS pseudorange measurements with IMU preintegration factors and incorporates the Barron loss, a general robust loss function that unifies several m-estimators through a single tunable parameter. By adaptively down weighting unreliable GNSS measurements, our approach improves resilience positioning. The method is implemented in an extended GTSAM framework and evaluated on the UrbanNav dataset. The proposed solution reduces positioning errors by up to 41% relative to standard FGO, and achieves even larger improvements over extended Kalman filter (EKF) baselines in urban canyon environments. These results highlight the benefits of Barron loss in enhancing the resilience of GNSS/IMU-based navigation in urban and signal-compromised environments.

End-to-End (E2E) planning has become a powerful paradigm for autonomous driving, yet current systems remain fundamentally uncertainty-blind. They assume perception outputs are fully reliable, even in ambiguous or poorly observed scenes, leaving the planner without an explicit measure of uncertainty. To address this limitation, we propose a camera-only E2E framework that estimates aleatoric uncertainty directly in BEV space and incorporates it into planning. Our method produces a dense, uncertainty-aware drivability map that captures both semantic structure and geometric layout at pixel-level resolution. To further promote safe and rule-compliant behavior, we introduce a lane-following regularization that encodes lane structure and traffic norms. This prior stabilizes trajectory planning under normal conditions while preserving the flexibility needed for maneuvers such as overtaking or lane changes. Together, these components enable robust and interpretable trajectory planning, even under challenging uncertainty conditions. Evaluated on the NAVSIM benchmark, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance, delivering substantial gains on both the challenging NAVHARD and NAVSAFE subsets. These results demonstrate that our principled aleatoric uncertainty modeling combined with driving priors significantly advances the safety and reliability of camera-only E2E autonomous driving.

Underwater visual localization remains challenging due to wavelength-dependent attenuation, poor texture, and non-Gaussian sensor noise. We introduce MARVO, a physics-aware, learning-integrated odometry framework that fuses underwater image formation modeling, differentiable matching, and reinforcement-learning optimization. At the front-end, we extend transformer-based feature matcher with a Physics Aware Radiance Adapter that compensates for color channel attenuation and contrast loss, yielding geometrically consistent feature correspondences under turbidity. These semi dense matches are combined with inertial and pressure measurements inside a factor-graph backend, where we formulate a keyframe-based visual-inertial-barometric estimator using GTSAM library. Each keyframe introduces (i) Pre-integrated IMU motion factors, (ii) MARVO-derived visual pose factors, and (iii) barometric depth priors, giving a full-state MAP estimate in real time. Lastly, we introduce a Reinforcement-Learningbased Pose-Graph Optimizer that refines global trajectories beyond local minima of classical least-squares solvers by learning optimal retraction actions on SE(2).

Understanding structure-property relationships in materials is fundamental in condensed matter physics and materials science. Over the past few years, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for advancing this understanding and accelerating materials discovery. Early ML approaches primarily focused on constructing and screening large material spaces to identify promising candidates for various applications. More recently, research efforts have increasingly shifted toward generating crystal structures using end-to-end generative models. This review analyzes the current state of generative modeling for crystal structure prediction and \textit{de novo} generation. It examines crystal representations, outlines the generative models used to design crystal structures, and evaluates their respective strengths and limitations. Furthermore, the review highlights experimental considerations for evaluating generated structures and provides recommendations for suitable existing software tools. Emerging topics, such as modeling disorder and defects, integration in advanced characterization, and incorporating synthetic feasibility constraints, are explored. Ultimately, this work aims to inform both experimental scientists looking to adapt suitable ML models to their specific circumstances and ML specialists seeking to understand the unique challenges related to inverse materials design and discovery.

Methods for probability updating, of which Bayesian conditionalization is the most well-known and widely used, are modeling tools that aim to represent the process of modifying an initial epistemic state, typically represented by a prior probability function P, which is adjusted in light of new information. Notably, updating methods and conditional sentences seem to intuitively share a deep connection, as is evident in the case of conditionalization. The present work contributes to this line of research and aims at shedding new light on the relationship between updating methods and conditional connectives. Departing from previous literature that often focused on a specific type of conditional or a particular updating method, our goal is to prove general results concerning the connection between conditionals and their probabilities. This will allow us to characterize the probabilities of certain conditional connectives and to understand what class of updating procedures can be represented using specific conditional connectives. Broadly, we adopt a general perspective that encompasses a large class of conditionals and a wide range of updating methods, enabling us to prove some general results concerning their interrelation.

Aumann's famous Agreeing to Disagree Theorem states that if a group of agents share a common prior, update their beliefs by Bayesian conditioning based on private information, and have common knowledge of their posterior beliefs regarding some event, these posteriors must be identical. There is an elegant generalization of this theorem by Monderer and Samet, later refined by Neeman: if a group of agents share a common prior, update their beliefs using Bayesian conditioning on private information, and have common p-belief of their posteriors, these posteriors must be close (i.e., they cannot differ by more than 1 - p). Here, common p-belief generalizes the concept of common knowledge to probabilistic beliefs: agents commonly p-believe an event E if everyone believes E to at least degree p, everyone believes to at least degree p that everyone believes E to at least degree p, and so on. This paper further extends the Monderer-Samet-Neeman Agreement Theorem from classical probability measures to plausibility measures -- a very general framework introduced by Halpern that unifies many formal models of belief. To facilitate this extension, we provide a new proof of the Monderer-Samet-Neeman theorem in the classical setting. Building upon both the original proof and our new proof, we offer two different generalizations of the theorem to plausibility-based structures. We then apply these generalized results to several non-classical belief models, including conditional probability structures and lexicographic probability structures. Moreover, we show that whenever our generalized theorems do not apply, the Monderer-Samet-Neeman Agreement Theorem fails. These findings suggest that our results successfully identify the minimal conditions required for a belief model to satisfy the Monderer-Samet-Neeman Agreement Theorem.